Another Step Toward Democracy

Hundreds of horn-honking buses and automobiles streaked through the cobbled hills of Lisbon. From their windows fluttered red flags emblazoned with the Socialist symbol--the clenched fist. Their destination was the First of May Stadium, where some 100,000 supporters turned out last week to hear Socialist Leader Mario Soares and watch folk dancers, prancing majorettes and a blaring drum-and-bugle corps.

As Portugal prepared for its first parliamentary election in half a century, the Socialist show of strength was only one of 1,000 political rallies held in a single day--no mean feat considering the country's 8.5 million population. That the campaign was under way at all was a measure of the changes wrought in the past five months. Until the abortive left-wing coup last November, Portugal frequently seemed on the verge of a Communist dictatorship. That danger has now virtually disappeared.

With balloting set for April 25, the second anniversary of the "revolution of flowers" that overturned the right-wing dictatorship of Marcello Caetano, no fewer than 14 political parties are competing for the 263 seats in the Assembly of the Republic. Apart from the radical fringe--Trotskyites and quasi anarchists on the left, monarchists on the right--it is not always easy to tell the parties apart. As one diplomat observed: "Socialism in its various forms, reverence to the Armed Forces Movement, the eradication of social injustice--those are like an American's apple pie. You can't afford to be against them." The top four parties and their programs:

> THE SOCIALIST PARTY, led by former Foreign Minister Soares, 51, will be trying to best its impressive 38% showing in last April's election for a Constituent Assembly. Two early polls show the Socialists getting about 40%. In the past year Soares has edged the party closer to the center. Its platform advocates increased private investment, price controls, guarantees of property rights of small farmers and a new agrarian-reform program. It opposes further nationalizations.

> THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS, who came in second last time with 26%, advocate a mixed economy and decentralization of the Communist-dominated Intersindical labor organization. Says Leader Francisco Sa Carneiro, former Minister Without Portfolio: "We are a social democratic party, close in terms of programs and policies to the European social democratic parties in Sweden, West Germany and Holland."

> THE CENTER SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, unabashedly on the right, is expected to improve considerably on its 8% tally last year, if only because it will be fielding more candidates; in the 1975 balloting, ultraleftists intimidated many C.D.S. candidates into withdrawing from the campaign. The party calls for a halt to nationalization, cutbacks in imports, and new agrarian reforms.

> THE COMMUNIST PARTY, chastened by last fall's abortive left-wing coup, is insisting in its wall posters that "to vote Communist is to vote for a left majority." In fact, Soares has ruled out any coalition with the Communists led by Alvaro Cunhal--or, for that matter, with the other two parties. The Communists favor worker control of factories, more nationalization (likely targets include tourism and fisheries), and "a tax system in which the burden falls on the most able to pay." But the Communists are given little chance of equaling even their modest 12.5% showing in last April's elections.

The national politicking will not end when the Assembly of the Republic is chosen. Two months later, there will be a follow-up election to choose a President who, under Portugal's intricate, 312-article constitution, will share power with the Assembly and the all-military Revolutionary Council.

Because the President will also be armed-forces commander in chief and head of the Revolutionary Council, he may well be a military man. One possibility is the current President, Francisco da Costa Gomes, 61. "I am not a candidate," Costa Gomes insisted in an interview with TIME'S Madrid bureau chief Gavin Scott, despite speculation to the contrary. "In every situation there is a need for new ideas and more energetic people." Another possibility is General Antonio Ramalho Eanes, 41, who vaulted from a lieutenant colonel to army chief of staff after thwarting last November's left-wing coup attempt. Asked if he was interested, Eanes told TIME: "In principle, no. If the conclusion was reached that for the country I was the least bad solution, then I would be a candidate." Still another potential candidate is Brigadier General Antonio Pires Veloso, 50, commander of the Northern Military Region and a popular figure with both the P.P.D. and the C.D.S.

For the new President and the Assembly alike, the principal problem will be Portugal's economy. "We have had the devastation typical of a war, without the war," declares Premier Jose Pinheiro de Azevedo. Unemployment stands at 15%. Prices are rising at a rate of perhaps 25% a year. Beef, potatoes and codfish are often unavailable. Last year's trade deficit reached $1.7 billion, and the government had to borrow nearly $1 billion abroad.

The political chaos of the past two years is not the only cause of the present troubles. Portugal was hit hard by the oil crisis and world recession. The old dictatorship left a 19th century industrial structure in which even the most poorly managed companies could survive by paying abysmally low wages. In decolonizing its African territories, Portugal lost its privileged access to cheap raw materials and captive markets. Instead, the country is burdened with more than 500,000 refugees, most of them from Angola.

To straighten out the mess, Portugal's new democratically elected government will have to take some tough measures that may make things worse before they get better. Basket-case industries like textile mills and electronics may be allowed to go under. Further import controls may be imposed, accompanied by a large devaluation of the escudo. "This country has to learn to work again," says Raul de Almeida Capela, a director of the Banco Portugues do Atlantico. After the two-year political free-for-all, that may not be an easy task.

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