A Bitter Three Weeks Ahead

For Hubert Humphrey, who has been looking and sounding more like a candidate every day, it was just like the good old times. Before him, in the grand ballroom of Pittsburgh's Hilton Hotel, nearly 2,000 delegates to the annual Pennsylvania AFL-CIO convention exuberantly chanted: "We want Humphrey! We want Humphrey!" Four times during his speech he brought the crowd to its feet to cheer and applaud. The din even briefly drowned out his spirited attack on both the Ford Administration and on Democratic presidential candidates who have tried to make Washington an election issue. Said he: "The issue is not Washington, not Big Government, but the people in the Government. When we put a new man in the White House, there is going to be the biggest exodus across the Potomac since Moses led his people across the Red Sea."

Last week his chances of becoming his party's nominee for the White House improved markedly. For one thing Jimmy Carter, Henry Jackson and Morris Udall bloodied each other in the New York and Wisconsin primaries. In New York, Jackson won almost as many delegates as the other two combined, but fell far short of the "landslide" he had predicted, while Carter barely managed to squeak by Udall in Wisconsin. The real winner was Humphrey, who hopes that a deadlock will force the Democratic convention to turn to him in July.

Build Support. At the same time, Pennsylvania's labor leaders decided to help Humphrey by doing what they can to defeat Carter in the state's April 27 primary, which is the next big contest. They agreed to turn out as many of their 1.5 million members as possible to work among the state's 2.8 million registered Democrats to build support for Jackson's and Udall's delegates, even though this means abandoning a few union members who are running as Carter delegates. In this way, Humphrey's backers hope to keep the Democratic race a three-man battle by stalling Carter. Prediets Democratic Chairman Robert Strauss: "It's going to be a bitter three weeks."

After the New York and Wisconsin count, the candidacies of Humphrey's rivals shaped up this way:

CARTER. Before the uproar over the "ethnic purity" gaffe, it could be said that his momentum was slowed, but he was far from stopped. As Mark Siegel, executive director of the Democratic National Committee, observed: "Carter had a rough week." In New York, he had hoped to do far better than his poor fourth place with 35 delegates, behind Jackson with 104, Udall with 70 and a block of 65 uncommitted delegates. In Wisconsin, Carter had hoped to win by a big enough margin to knock Udall out of the race. Instead, in a contest so close that NBC and ABC at first projected Udall as the winner (see THE PRESS), Carter got 37% of the vote, Udall 36%, George Wallace 13% and Jackson 7%.

Carter also suffered setbacks in caucus states. In Virginia, where Democrats were in the early stages of delegate selection, they gave him 30% of their votes, and 60% for uncommitted delegate slates. In Oklahoma, where the selection process was completed, he wound up with twelve delegates, but 18 delegates went uncommitted and seven went to Native Son Fred Harris, who dropped out last week as a candidate in the primaries.

Still, Carter has won far more caucuses (eight), primaries (six) and delegates (247) than any other candidate. Further, his campaign was picking up speed in Pennsylvania. The state's liberals are mostly supporting Udall, but Carter has the endorsement of several important politicians, among them

Pittsburgh Mayor Pete Flaherty. Yet none of these calculations take into account the unpredictable effects of Carter's new difficulties with blacks and liberals over his remarks on housing. His problems delighted his opponents. Chortled Washington Political Correspondent Ted Van Dyk, a Humphrey supporter: "The dominoes are not falling over."

JACKSON. By overstating his chances, Jackson greatly reduced the impact of his victory in New York and missed the big lift that he had sought. Jackson tried a rueful quip: "We got our landslide, but we just missed our majority." He had the best organization in the state and expended $650,000 and 20 days of personal campaigning--more than the investment in money and time of the other candidates combined. Nonetheless, he failed to expand his support much beyond his solid core of Jewish and blue-collar voters in the New York City area. He lost most of the black districts, the suburbs and upstate New York to Udall and Carter. More than ever, Jackson knows that he must do well in Pennsylvania. He has budgeted $350,000 for the state, about $100,000 more than either of his opponents.

UDALL. To stay in the race as a serious contender, he needed to win in Wisconsin. The narrow loss was only partly offset by his unexpectedly strong showing in New York, where he did well among affluent liberals, well-educated young people and nonorganization Democrats. Thus, barring a miracle, Udall's role in the campaign is now that of a spoiler, offering liberals an alternative to Carter and siphoning off some of his potential support.

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