War Against Swine Flu

When several hundred soldiers were stricken with influenza at Fort Dix, N.J., in February, doctors at first were not greatly alarmed. The recruits appeared to be suffering only from the A/Victoria influenza virus, a strain that caused last winter's relatively mild flu epidemic. But tests showed that at least a dozen of the soldiers--including an 18-year-old who died of flu-related pneumonia--had been infected with a new and more worrisome viral strain. Medical experts are concerned that the virus, usually seen only in swine, may be similar to the lethal virus that probably caused some 20 million deaths--including 548,000 in the U.S.--during the great global flu "pandemic" of 1918-19.

Last week, after two White House meetings with top health authorities, President Ford took an extraordinary step to avert any repetition of that disaster. He called for the inoculation of the entire U.S. population--a program that would exceed even the record-breaking 100 million oral doses of polio vaccine given during a year and a half in the early '60s--and asked Congress to allocate $135 million in federal "seed" money for production of a new vaccine that is effective against the swine virus, if indeed it reappears in epidemic proportions. To supply enough shots for every American by early next winter--before the onset of the new flu season--drug companies will have to mobilize almost immediately, ordering, among other things, millions of fertilized eggs in which the vaccine will have to be grown.

Ford insisted that there was "no cause for alarm," but added that "we cannot afford to take a chance with the health of this country." Experts agreed, pointing out that whenever an entirely new flu strain has appeared (as opposed to a minor variant like A/Victoria), it has been followed by a massive outbreak the following season. When that happens, the death toll can be high, even in an era of antibiotics (to fight bacterial-linked infections) and other forms of treatment unavailable in 1918-19. During the most recent pandemic in 1968-69, for example, about 28,000 Americans died and $3.2 billion was lost in medical bills and working time.

The new vaccine will entail some risks. The new vaccine will not be effective against other known flu strains. Also, some Americans could develop strong allergic reactions to the egg-grown vaccine. But for the overwhelming majority, the only aftereffect of the shots will be nothing more than a sore arm--"a small price to pay," says Ford, "for this vital protection."

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