On to Wisconsin and New York

Only five weeks into the primaries, Gerald Ford has already decided that the once-crowded Democratic field really shapes up as a two-man race. He expects the nominee to be Hubert Humphrey if the convention becomes deadlocked. But increasingly, he and his aides are paying attention to Jimmy Carter as a possible adversary in November, particularly if he can sprint far enough ahead of the Democratic pack in the primary tests ahead.

Carter's decisive victory last week over George Wallace in North Carolina, helped considerably by black voters (see story page 17), moved him closer to that goal. He now has 134 delegates. Behind him are Wallace with 58, Henry Jackson with 51 and Morris Udall with 23 (needed to nominate: 1,505). But Wallace has little prospect of winning any primaries except Alabama's on May 4.

Carter's success, meanwhile, has begun to force Humphrey off the sideline. Last week he charged that presidential candidates who run against Washington are practicing "a disguised new form of racism." By making the Federal Government an issue, he reasoned, they "are making an attack on Government programs, on the poor, on blacks, on minorities, on the cities." Humphrey insisted that he was criticizing only Ford and Ronald Reagan, but his words could also be applied to Carter. In response, he called Humphrey's statement "a departure from rationality."

The Georgian's staff, meanwhile, dismisses Humphrey by claiming that it is Jimmy, not Hubert, who has updated the old Roosevelt coalition with an unbeatable combination of blacks, blue-collar "ethnics," white-collar suburbanites, liberals and conservatives. Boasts Carter of his appeal: "It is just like Bobby Kennedy's." But Carter has not yet demonstrated that he can win in a northern industrial state against his major rivals, Jackson and Udall. His chance comes next week in Wisconsin and New York. The situation in both states was fluid, but the races shaped up last week as follows:

WISCONSIN. The primary boils down to a close contest between Udall's strong organization and Carter's growing momentum, with Jackson running third. Udall has set up offices in 20 cities and towns, campaigned in the state for a year, and won strong union backing. He is also supported by six of the state's seven Democratic U.S. Representatives. But Udall's own polls show him running behind Carter, and a loss might well knock him out of the race. As a result, Udall changed his strategy last week to devote more time and money to Wisconsin and less to New York. He has also presented himself unabashedly as a kind of surrogate for Humphrey, who for years was considered the third Senator from Wisconsin. At a beer-and-pizza session with union members in Beloit, Udall said: "If you're for Humphrey, maybe the best thing to do is vote for Udall--the best thing you can do is keep a bunch of us alive."

Although Carter started late, he is making an all-out effort to win. Because of his weak organization--only last week did workmen finish installing telephones in his Milwaukee headquarters--Carter must depend on the bandwagon effect of his previous victories. Last week, in his first appearance in the state this year, Carter drew large, enthusiastic crowds at stops in Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay.

NEW YORK. The state has no "beauty contest," and the Rube Goldberg provisions of its primary law make next week's election a nightmarish free-for-all. At last count, no fewer than 830 contestants were seeking 274 delegate seats at the July convention. Complains Lawyer William vanden Heuvel, Jimmy Carter's co-chairman in New York: "It's just an outrage. It's a disgrace that such things can go on in a democratic society. The situation is byzantine. It's Balkanized. It makes oldtime Bulgarian politics look progressive."

A low turnout would help Jackson, who has the strongest campaign apparatus and plans to spend up to $600,000 on the campaign, six times Carter's budget. Jackson started organizing a year ago, concentrating on labor (his latest campaign button reads: JACKSON MEANS JOBS) and Jews, who like his strong support of Israel and Soviet Jews. To enhance his appeal, Jackson is proposing a federal takeover of welfare, increased federal aid to education, a broadened federal housing program and a federal guarantee of municipal bonds.

But Jackson has struck few sparks among New Yorkers. Moreover, Udall's organization has improved remarkably in recent weeks. So has his newly brisk campaigning style, blending toughness with old-fashioned liberal compassion. Recently, he told a group of receptive black businessmen in Harlem: "A few young hoodlums in sneakers must not be allowed to terrorize a city." Running in third place, Carter lacks money and organization in New York. Still, he and Udall together may be able to deny Jackson his goal of winning more than half of the delegates and thus giving his campaign an enormous boost toward the crucial primary on April 27 in Pennsylvania.

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