An Eleventh-Hour Reprieve for Reagan

Ronald Reagan allowed himself a few minutes of gaiety, rather soberly marking his North Carolina victory with orange sherbet and chocolate ice cream aboard his Boeing 727. Then he canceled nearly all of his scheduled campaign appearances and withdrew to his Pacific Palisades home overlooking Los Angeles to prepare for a desperate campaign spectacular: a 30-minute nationally televised speech this week. By attacking Ford's diplomacy and defense policy, and by calling for new national leadership, Reagan hopes to rejuvenate his campaign, replenish his treasury and restore his flagging chances for the nomination. Says Campaign Manager John Sears: "This could be the beginning of a real turnaround."

That seems unlikely. Although North Carolina slowed Gerald Ford's momentum after five straight primary victories, he remains the runaway favorite to win the nomination and leads in delegates by 197 to 83 (needed to nominate: 1,130).

Reagan's campaign is in serious trouble. His treasury is $650,000 in the red. April promises to be a cruel month in which Ford will pick up most of the 302 delegates at stake in New York, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Not until the Texas primary on May 1 does the challenger have much chance to win again.

But Reagan's North Carolina victory made it more likely that he will keep running at least until the final races on June 8, when 331 delegates will be chosen in Ohio, New Jersey and California. On the Democratic side, there were no surprises in North Carolina: by 54% to 35%, Jimmy Carter swamped George Wallace (see story next page).

Overconfidence was partly the cause of Ford's defeat. He cockily campaigned for only two days in North Carolina, v. twelve for Reagan, and did not bother taking any polls to weigh voting trends. Reagan also blanketed the state, where conservatives abound, with a TV and radio barrage that battered at detente as a "one-way street" and at U.S. military strength as "second best."

Struck Speechless. No one was more surprised by the results than Reagan, who was campaigning in Wisconsin for next week's primary. Refusing to hold a press conference, he hurried to the La Crosse airport. Briefly, he shook hands with about 100 cheering supporters. Cried out one woman: "How does it feel to win?" Said Reagan: "No comment." Squealed another woman: "Aren't you happy?" Repeated Reagan: "No comment." Having just become one of the few candidates in political annals to be struck speechless by a victory, he thereupon quick-stepped to his plane for the long flight home to California.

In the White House, meanwhile, Gerald Ford decided to step up the pace of his campaigning to almost every weekend, concentrating for the time being on Wisconsin, Texas and California. He trails Reagan in Texas (100 delegates) and California (167) but has a comfortable lead in Wisconsin, where Republicans will elect 45 delegates on April 6. New York holds a primary that same day; all of the state's 154 delegates will not be bound officially to any candidate, but most of them are expected to support Ford at the convention. He also stands to pick up most of the 103 delegates in Pennsylvania, where he is unopposed in the April 27 primary. In addition, Ford has decided to work harder for the support of 451 delegates from nonprimary states in the South, Middle West and Rocky Mountains. Aides have recommended that he make personal appeals to delegates at regional stroking sessions next month in Atlanta, Omaha and Denver.

Defeat also convinced Ford that he must be more assertive. The day after the North Carolina primary, he met with about 100 Texas Republicans amid the Rose Garden's blooming magnolias and promised that "the U.S. [military] is going to be No. 1, as it is." Later he defended his foreign policy before a group of conservative Senators at the White House. But Ford probably will not assail Reagan stridently. Explains an aide to the President: "He's got to pave the way for Reagan and his supporters to jump aboard his campaign at some point"--at the convention or at least before the November election.

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