Carter: The Scraps Ahead

On the morning after his big victory in Florida's Democratic primary, Jimmy Carter rolled from his bed in an Orlando hotel at 6:15, cranky and out of sorts. This was doubly surprising, because the usually smiling Georgian had just dealt George Wallace his first thumping in a Southern primary, thus erasing the effects of a setback in Massachusetts a week earlier. Moreover, Carter is expected to beat Wallace again in Illinois this week and in North Carolina next Tuesday.

But strategy sessions with top aides had kept Carter up past 3 a.m., and he was in no mood to be pushed when staffers gave him the bad news: he was scheduled to campaign in seven Illinois cities that day, and was booked for five broadcast interviews, four speeches and three handshaking tours on the next day. He was to spend all of the third day stumping the Los Angeles area. Furious, Carter admonished his aides for not setting aside any time for rest. As he boarded his chartered Boeing 727, he told reporters: "I'm not going to answer any questions on the plane. I'm going to sleep." Moments afterward, however, he had second thoughts. Again flashing his piano-keyboard grin and seemingly relaxed, he walked back to the press section to chat.

The episode illustrated the grueling pace of the Democratic race. For months, Carter and his opponents have crisscrossed the country for up to 18 hours a day in quest of the 1,505 delegate votes needed to win the nomination; as yet no candidate seems headed toward a decisive edge. After

Florida, Carter led with 70 delegates, followed by Wallace with 58, Henry Jackson with 55 and Morris Udall with 23.

But Carter's victory in Florida, with 34% of the vote, accelerated the momentum that he has gained from the early primaries and caucuses. In last week's primary, he dominated the center on the issues, had the best organization and had the broadest appeal of all the candidates. He got 72% of the votes cast by blacks and piled up majorities among people under 25, blue-collar workers, voters earning more than $15,000 and Democrats identifying themselves as liberals. Said he after the victory: "I don't see anyone who can beat me, but I see a lot of hard political scraps ahead."

Less Important. Wallace's poor showing in the same state--second with 31% of the vote--set him back, though he vowed to stay in the race until the end. Said he: "It's just one primary. If I'm slipping, it means that I'll be slipping into the convention with a lot of delegates." Despite the bravado, Wallace was sorely disappointed; the loss indicates that he may be less important at a brokered convention than most Democrats had thought.

His majorities were confined mostly to Florida's rural panhandle. Elsewhere, he was hurt by the changing complexion of the Democratic electorate in Florida. Since 1972, when he won the primary with 41.7% of the vote, 200,000 Democrats have migrated to Florida from states farther north; most are moderates, and they voted overwhelmingly for Carter or Jackson. In addition, Wallace could not persuade many voters that he was physically fit; surveys showed that two out of five Democrats were partly deterred from voting for him because they questioned his health. Complained Wallace: "If I hadn't been in a wheelchair, I would have won."

Jackson, in third place with 24%, ran several points stronger in Florida than expected, and pronounced himself satisfied. Because of his staunch stands in favor of Israel and freer emigration of Jews from Russia, Jackson ran strongly among Miami-area Jews, who gave him more than 60% of their votes; in one condominium precinct, he won 1,100 votes to 77 for Carter. Said he: "Florida is only a way station along the road. I carried Dade County, which is an extension of the industrial North. The others carried the part that is an extension of Plains, Ga. [Carter's home town], and Alabama. You tell me what industrial state Carter will carry. Let him join me in New York!"

On top of his victory in Florida, Carter got good news from other states. In South Carolina's Democratic county conventions, he pulled nearly even with

Wallace with about 30% of the vote, which was a decided gain from the precinct caucuses last month, when Carter ran about five percentage points behind Wallace. In Oklahoma, Governor David Boren was on the verge of backing him, thereby adding seven delegates to the ten that Carter had won in last month's precinct caucuses. Carter also has made some inroads among Democratic liberals and Jews in California. Last week $25,000 was raised for him at a $500-a-plate dinner at the Paradise Cove mansion of Max Palevsky, a wealthy industrialist who backed George McGovern in 1972.

Low-Keyed. Carter seems likely to continue to build momentum for the next few weeks. He stands to do well not only in Illinois and North Carolina but also to carry the Kansas and Virginia caucuses. Next month, however, there should be better news for Jackson and Udall, starting on April 6, when primaries will be held in Wisconsin and New York. After his Florida victory, Carter's aides suggested making a big push in Wisconsin, where Udall seems to hold a wide lead. Mindful of his miscalculation in thinking that a last-minute blitz would bring him victory in the Massachusetts primary, however, Carter decided to mount only a low-keyed effort in Wisconsin.

He also decided against campaigning heavily in New York because he accepts the orthodox view that Jackson cannot be overtaken. The Washington Senator has out-organized and outspent everybody there. In the remaining weeks, he plans to invest 17 days of campaigning and $750,000--three-fourths of his New York budget--to expand his already substantial support beyond Jewish and blue-collar neighborhoods. But he lost some of his edge in the state last week when the legislature rewrote the primary's ground rules to permit the candidates' names to appear on the ballot; previously, only the names of would-be delegates were to be listed, which was to Jackson's advantage. Reason: patient, door-to-door work by his thousands of district workers would ensure a large turnout for his delegates.

The chief beneficiary of the new rule permitting candidates' names on the ballot will be Udall.

He is the sole surviving liberal with any chance of doing well in the campaign. New York has many liberal Democrats, and Udall last week won the formal support of those leaders who had been pledged to Birch Bayh before he dropped out of the race.

This will help Udall to mount an effective challenge against Jackson in as many as 30 of New York's 39 congressional districts.

Udall has budgeted $400,000 and ten days of campaigning for New York; in contrast, he plans to spend $300,000 and campaign for ten days in Wisconsin.

Jackson is also well organized and expects to do nicely in Pennsylvania on April 27, because of Milton Shapp's decision to withdraw from the race. Philadelphia Mayor Frank Rizzo, who could control 30 votes at the convention, probably will announce his support of Jackson soon. Carter and Udall also are setting up extensive efforts in Pennsylvania. Then, on May 1, Carter hopes to make a splashy showing in Texas. Senator Lloyd Bentsen, a favorite son, has tightly organized the state. But Carter is challenging Bentsen in every district and plans a high-powered drive to win as many seats as possible. Beyond Texas, the candidates' strategies and expectations will be dictated largely by how well they do in the intervening primaries--and by how much money they can raise, though none of the major candidates is yet in financial trouble.

The primaries will end with a Democratic super bowl on June 8, when 540 delegates will be up for grabs in New Jersey, Ohio and California. The candidates expect to make an all-out effort in them. But their chances of winning California's important contest for 280 delegates faded when popular Governor Jerry Brown announced last week that he will run as a favorite son. He dodged questions about whether he will enter other primaries. Asked if he really wants to be President, he said, "Yes." What about Vice President? "Premature," said Brown. His entry further scrambled the Democratic race and increased the chances for a deadlocked convention--which would then give Hubert Humphrey the best shot at the nomination.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.