The Ford Bandwagon Rolls
The Ford Bandwagon Rolls
The crowds love a winner, and everywhere that Gerald Ford went as he campaigned in Illinois, throngs lined the streets to get a glimpse. Often they greeted him with rousing cheers, foot stomping, whistles and cries of "Go get 'em, Jerry," and "We love you, Jerry." The uneasy and awkward candidate of last fall is beginning to turn the voters on.
His victories in the first four primaries achieved the alchemy. This week in Illinois, Ford is expected to score his fifth win. Next week he stands a good chance to pick up his sixth, in North Carolina. But few victories that he has ever gained were quite as reassuring to him as last week's win in Florida--a big, fast growing, variegated state that until recently had been considered Ronald Reagan country. After Ford got the news in Washington, last Tuesday night, he grinned broadly and declared, unmemorably, "All I can say is that it feels as warm and comforting as a ray of Florida sunshine."
Later that evening, as workers in his national campaign headquarters jubilantly tossed Florida oranges to one another, the President warned them against overconfidence. And Political Counselor Rogers C.B. Morton cautioned: "We don't want to gloat." But in winning 53% of the Republican vote in Florida, Ford practically eliminated Reagan from the running.
By some counts, the President now has about a fourth of the 1,130 delegates needed to win the nomination in August. He has won 88 delegates in primaries, can count on getting about 150 in the New York (April 6) and Pennsylvania (April 27) primaries, which Reagan is in effect skipping as unwinnable, and seems likely to pick up about 100 in such non-primary caucus states as Iowa, Oklahoma and Washington.
We're Delighted. Reagan stubbornly refused to acknowledge that he had taken a drubbing in Florida, though many experts figured that he, like Willy Loman, had little left except his smile and a shoeshine. Lounging on a bed in blue slacks and a black-and-white check pajama top, Reagan watched the returns on TV at the Sheraton Hotel in Rock Island, Ill. When Ford's victory was certain, Reagan changed into a blue suit and blithely bounded into the coffee shop to tell reporters: "We're all delighted. We've challenged an incumbent who has thrown the whole load at us--all the big artillery there is--[and yet] we are still getting close to half the vote. We're in for the long haul, all the way to Kansas City."
Later, in an interview with TIME Midwest Bureau Chief Benjamin W. Gate, Reagan declared: "When has the challenger had to beat the incumbent in the first few primaries? We came into these primaries with the expectation of making a good showing, and to our minds, 40% is a good showing. For a challenger to do what I have done cannot be called a defeat."
Still, Reagan's optimism seemed forced. His initial strategy--a blitzkrieg in New Hampshire and Florida that would knock Ford out of the race--had failed. Rather than quit, however, Reagan changed his strategy. Now his wishful thinking has him picking up enough delegates in primaries in the South, Southwest and West to keep Ford from getting the nomination on the first ballot. On subsequent ballots, Reagan envisions attracting enough uncommitted delegates to win the nomination for himself.
At the moment, several primaries in May look promising for Reagan--if he stays in the race that long. Among them: Texas (May 1), where he is expected to win at least half the 100 delegates at stake, Louisiana (May 1), West Virginia (May 11) and Kentucky, Tennessee, Nevada, Idaho and Oregon (all May 25). He hopes a chain of strong showings in these states will help him win all of California's 167 delegates on June 8.
Still, Ford's position is overpowering. Reagan probably will not be able to sustain his support even in the South and West without scoring an early primary victory, and none is in sight. For example, in Nebraska, Reagan was ahead two months ago; but the latest Omaha World-Herald poll showed Ford in front, 53% to 29%. The President is expected to win most of the delegates in New York and Pennsylvania, in addition to Michigan (May 18) and New Jersey and Ohio (June 8).
Even in defeat, Reagan has affected the President's strategy, moving Ford to the right on many issues. The President has tried to make his Soviet policy sound tougher by purging the word detente. In Florida he sought to attract votes from Cuban Americans by denouncing Fidel Castro as an "international outlaw." This ploy failed; Cuban Americans voted heavily for Reagan because they correctly saw him as more anti-Castro than Ford.
At the same time, Ford projected an image of competence by his knowledgeable defense of his budget and other policies, benefited greatly by the strong upturn in the economy and skillfully exploited his position as incumbent (see box next page and ESSAY page 19). Grumbled Reagan: "A challenger can't promise highways and hospitals."
The President has been out-organizing Reagan and outspending him (about $1 million v. $650,000 in Florida). Ford's campaign in the Sunshine State started to take off in late January, when William
Roberts, a savvy organizer from California, joined the staff. After finding that the Florida campaign was "dinking along like a Toonerville trolley," Roberts more than tripled the operation to 40 paid employees. He also set up a precinct-level apparatus that made contact with 753,000 people.
After the victory, Ford's top lieutenants launched a low-key campaign around the country to convert undecided and pro-Reagan state and county chairmen. Somewhat lamely, Acting Campaign Chief Stuart Spencer insisted: "We're not pressuring them. We're just taking their temperature, seeing where they stand." Reagan's only motive for staying in after North Carolina would seem to be to keep Ford hewing to the right and to influence the party platform, the choice of Cabinet officers and the vice presidential nominee--perhaps Reagan himself, although Ford would seem to gain nothing from him as a running mate. In fact, the President's men hope to force Reagan to abandon the race and thus allow Ford to move toward the center. That would help him attract the independent votes he will need to win in November. The effort was made more urgent by a Harris Poll taken before the Florida primary and released last week. It showed that by wide margins, voters believe Democrats are better able to deal with 21 key issues embracing the economy, defense and foreign policy.
At week's end, the Ford camp's joy over Florida was considerably dampened by a scandal involving Campaign Manager Howard ("Bo") Callaway. He owns a two-thirds interest in Crested Butte, a ski resort near Aspen, Colo. Crested Butte wanted to use 2,000 acres of federal land on nearby Mount Snodgrass for a second, $45 million ski area. The U.S. Forest Service tentatively turned down the proposal in January 1975 on grounds that Crested Butte did not draw enough skiers to warrant the expansion.
On July 3--the same day that he resigned as Secretary of the Army to become Ford's campaign manager--Callaway called together officials of the Forest Service and its parent agency, the Agriculture Department, in his Pentagon office. He claimed last week that he had merely reargued Crested Butte's case. In any event, the three Government employees who opposed the new facility were transferred to different jobs, and in December permission was granted for the expansion.
Democratic Senator Floyd Haskell of Colorado ordered his Interior subcommittee to investigate. Callaway professed his innocence, and Ford declared that he had "full faith" in him. Nonetheless, Callaway has "temporarily" stepped down from his job until the investigation is over. He is succeeded by Political Director Spencer, who masterminded Ford's primary victories.
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