Jackson Achieves a Critical Mass

With no hope for a quick knockout, the four leading Democratic candidates for President settled down last week for a long and bruising slugfest. Jimmy Carter, Henry Jackson and George Wallace were tirelessly crisscrossing Florida for this week's primary; Morris Udall was gamely trying to pull together the party's liberals before his next major outings on April 6 in New York and Wisconsin. Thus for the moment the candidates were still hoping to win the fight on points by picking up enough delegates in the party's caucuses and primaries to gain an overwhelming advantage at the convention in July.

The slogging strategy--a political war of attrition--was forced on the candidates by the opening primaries, especially last week's contest in Massachusetts, which demonstrated that no candidate is likely to run away with the nomination. Indeed, Jackson's victory in Massachusetts only further muddled the picture and reinforced the view that the race will be hard, complex and fragmented. Long written off by many Democratic leaders as a lackluster, "can't win" campaigner, the Washington Senator stunned his rivals by getting 22.2% of the vote, thereby resurrecting himself as a major contender for the nomination. Behind him were Udall (18%), Wallace (17%) and Carter (14.2%). The outcome had other important consequences for all four:

JACKSON. His win improved only slightly his position in Florida but greatly strengthened him in New York (which has 274 delegates), where he was already the front runner. He enthusiastically declared, "I am going to win in New York by more than a majority --it could be a landslide." Jackson also won about three-fourths of the vote at caucuses back home in Washington last week. He expects to do well in primaries in the big industrial states, particularly Pennsylvania (April 27), Michigan (May 18) and California (June 8).

UDALL. Together with his second-place finish in New Hampshire, his strong showing in Massachusetts made him the clear favorite among the liberals. As a result, Birch Bayh effectively dropped out of the race. The other liberal candidates--Fred Harris, Sargent Shriver and Milton Shapp--stayed in the running for the present but no longer have realistic expectations of winning many delegates. Even though the liberals seemed to be coalescing around Udall, Idaho Senator Frank Church still planned to enter some of the later primaries, with the goal of picking up enough votes to become a force at the convention.

WALLACE. He finished in Massachusetts about as well as he had predicted and was elated that he carried Boston, which he scornfully calls "that citadel of Eastern liberalism." But his showing probably did not increase his already considerable strength in Florida. Moreover, he has yet to demonstrate that he can win this year in a Northern industrial state; another chance will come next week in Illinois.

CARTER. He had expected to do better in Massachusetts, and his fourth place slowed the momentum he had gained by winning in New Hampshire. To recapture that forward thrust, he must run strongly against Wallace in Florida and Illinois, and in North Carolina on March 23. Carter's disappointment over Massachusetts was slightly offset by his victory last week in Vermont. He received 46% of the vote, to 29% for Shriver, but the primary is not binding on the state's delegates.

The confusing results of the early primaries enhanced the sideline strategy of Hubert Humphrey, who is staying out of the contests in the hope that the convention will be deadlocked and turn to him. Democratic National Chairman Robert Strauss regards a deadlocked convention as increasingly likely. To help prepare for it, he intends to name an ad hoc committee of brokers that will be drawn from a cross section of the party, including labor, blacks, women and officeholders. If no candidate emerges from the primaries with the 1,505 delegate votes needed to win the nomination, the committee will begin negotiating on a nominee even before the convention opens. Strauss believes the early start will forestall the televised spectacle of a prolonged deadlock that might turn off voters.

Rightward Shift. TIME learned last week from two high-ranking Democrats that Humphrey's chances of being the party's compromise nominee have been improved by an understanding he has reached with Jackson. The arrangement grew out of their high regard for each other. Explained one of the Democrats: "Hubert will not try to stop Jackson; in turn, if Scoop can't make it himself, he'll try to get Humphrey nominated." Much of Jackson's support would easily be transferred to Humphrey: Big Labor, party regulars, blue-collar Democrats and Jews. In addition, Humphrey could win the backing of many other liberals who regard Jackson as too conservative on some issues.

Certainly no Democrat demonstrated in the early primaries that he can put together the broad coalition of voters needed to win the election in November. In Massachusetts, however, Jackson came closest, helped mostly by organized labor and a rightward shift among voters, particularly on race relations and social welfare issues.

Jackson ran well in almost every area except among blacks, who repudiated his stand against forced busing to desegregate schools; Georgia's Carter was strongest in black neighborhoods. Jackson was second to Wallace in Boston's most virulently antibusing wards; he was also second in the liberal--and heavily Jewish--suburbs, where Udall found his greatest strength. But the Washington Senator was first in such working-class cities as Springfield, Worcester and Maiden, where voters were attracted by his hard line on detente, his opposition to busing and his support of national health insurance.

Further, Jackson spent more money (about $450,000) and put together a better campaign organization than any other candidate. Through door-to-door canvassing and telephoning, his workers, totaling some 2,500 paid staffers and volunteers, identified his supporters. On primary day the Jackson committee got out the vote by using cars and rented yellow school buses to transport some 15,000 voters to the polls, despite a severe ice storm. Cracked one Boston politician: "I'll be goddamned if George Wallace was not outbused."

The next primary in a Northern industrial state will take place in Illinois on March 16. Unlike the Massachusetts primary, the Illinois delegate-selection race will be much more important than the separate preferential vote, commonly called the beauty contest. But the Democratic competition for 155 delegates stands to be inconclusive. Reason: nowhere on the ballot is the name of the most important Democrat in the election--Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. His Honor, aiming to be a major broker at the convention, has filed slates of candidates committed to a favorite son, Senator Adlai Stevenson III. The Senator is not actively stumping, but so magic is his name in Illinois--and so great is Daley's clout--that Stevenson should pick up at least 90 delegates, whom the mayor will control.

Carter may well come in second, winning some 25 delegates, chiefly in three Northern congressional districts. Wallace can be expected to land a dozen or more delegates in blue-collar areas in the central part of the state and could get a handful in the Cook County suburbs, where race is an issue.

Serious Problem. Both Jackson and Udall are in effect sitting out Illinois and face the serious problem of keeping their campaigns moving forward in the weeks before April 6, the date of the New York and Wisconsin primaries. Udall will spend the time replenishing his treasury, which was sorely depleted in Massachusetts, and beefing up his campaign organization, particularly in New York. Jackson also will devote much of his time to New York, where he has spent months building strength among moderate and conservative voters and putting together the same kind of organization that brought him victory in the big old Bay State.

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Because of the attention given to the Democratic contest in Massachusetts, the Republican primary passed almost unnoticed. As expected, Gerald Ford soundly beat Ronald Reagan, with 62% of the vote. The victory helped swell the President's momentum in Florida, so dismaying Reagan that he sharply attacked Ford for the first time. At a news conference in Orlando, the Californian said he was not questioning Ford's "decency, honor and patriotism." But, Reagan charged, "Gerald Ford . . . has shown neither the vision nor the leadership necessary to halt and reverse the diplomatic and military decline of the U.S." A reporter asked Reagan if he were violating his promise to abide by the G.O.P.'s "Eleventh Commandment" --thou shalt not smite thy fellow Republican. No, Reagan replied lamely, he was not hitting Ford personally, only his Administration's policies.

Next week Ford and Reagan will face each other again, in the Illinois primary. Because of the importance of the state to his campaign strategy, which requires his doing well in the early primaries, Reagan has stumped in Illinois for five days since the new year and plans to spend four more days there this week. Ford made his first campaign trip to Illinois last week, and he will return this week. In addition, he has made good use of Son Jack, who spent all last week politicking for his father on college campuses in the state.

Ford has some significant advantages over Reagan in the primary, most notably his incumbency, the support of party regulars and a stronger organization. His state campaign chief, popular former Governor Richard Ogilvie, shrewdly got many well-known G.O.P. stars, including six Congressmen and one former Congressman, to run as Ford delegates. TIME'S midwest bureau chief Benjamin W. Gate reported that by the estimate of party leaders, Ford as of last week stood to win at least 60 and Reagan 36 of the 96 Republican delegate seats up for grabs.

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