Recognition, Not Control

Almost as soon as the Soviet-and Cuban-backed Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (M.P.L.A.) claimed military victory in Angola, the rush to recognition was on. Britain, Italy, seven other Western European countries and Canada all followed the lead of France last week in acknowledging M.P.L.A. Leader Agostinho Neto's regime as the legitimate government of Angola. Only 22 members of the Organization of African Unity recognized the M.P.L.A. in January; by week's end the number stood at 38.

Despite such successes, the M.P.L.A. was far less sure of achieving genuine control of the country. The Western-backed factions that had been outgunned in conventional warfare--the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (F.N.L.A.)--were regrouping into guerrilla bands.

From his mobile headquarters in southern Angola's arid wastelands, UNITA Leader Jonas Savimbi sent out a recorded message of defiance. "We are to continue our struggle," said Savimbi, "because we cannot accept a minority regime imposed on our people by Cuban troops and Russian tanks." Aided by hidden arms caches, Savimbi's guerrillas last week ambushed several Soviet trucks and troop carriers. With seemingly solid support from the 2 million-strong southern Ovimbundu tribe (out of a total Angolan population estimated to be 5.5 million), Savimbi has the potential to thwart M.P.L.A. control over nearly half the country.

An even more serious obstacle to M.P.L.A. rule is the sad state of Angolan civil administration. In southern cities like Huambo and Bie (formerly Silva Poorto), white Portuguese held virtually every civil job before independence, all the way down to postal clerks and telephone operators. With many trained people gone into exile or into the bush, the problem of staffing a new government may be insuperable.

Crucial Exports. To dilute support for Savimbi, the Luanda government last week made friendly overtures to its opponents' key backers. In private messages sent to Zambia and ZaireH, Neto said that in exchange for recognition, he would allow his two neighbors to resume transport of their crucial copper exports over the Benguela Railway.

Most important, Neto ordered his Cuban-led forces to halt their move south, where 5,000 South African regulars are stationed along Angola's 830-mile border with South West Africa (Namibia). The halt forestalled a clash that some feared might trigger an all-out black war to "liberate" white-ruled southern Africa. At the same time, M.P.L.A. Foreign Minister Jose Eduardo

Dos Santos hinted that Luanda might guarantee the safety of South Africa's $180 million investment in Angola's Cunene River hydroelectric complex in exchange for recognition.

In any recognition deal, Neto's neighbors will undoubtedly want a promise that he will ship his 12,000 Cubans back home. That would also be a condition of U.S. recognition. The immediate fear is that the Cubans might move to Mozambique and join the black Rhodesian guerrillas based there in full-scale warfare against Ian Smith's white regime in Rhodesia. That worry was sharpened last week by reports that Soviet tanks had been landed at the Mozambique port of Beira.

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