The Mood: Dramatic Upturn

Americans are not nearly so opposed to Big Government and federal spending as the politicians presume. Nearly half the public, in fact, wants the Federal Government to finance more jobs and stronger social programs even if it means further unbalancing the budget. People are decidedly more cheerful about the economy and the future of the country than they were several months ago. And the preference of voters--if the two parties' nominees are of equivalent stature--is strongly for a Democrat to be elected President. Nonetheless, President Ford has distinctly improved his standing in the past five months.

These are among the conclusions of the latest TIME Soundings, a quarterly national survey. Begun in May 1974, Soundings consists of political and social indicators that were developed for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., the Manhattan-based opinion-research firm. They are based on hundreds of questions. Soundings not only measures shifts in opinion but also monitors the underlying trends that produce sea changes in public attitudes. The results of this installment were based on telephone interviews in the last week in January with a national cross section of 1,002 Americans. Results of this survey have an error factor of plus or minus 3%; in estimating trends from one quarter to another, the error factor is plus or minus 4%.

THE TRENDS

In contrast to last September, when people were bitter and fearful about inflation and only a minority of the public found Gerald Ford an acceptable President, the latest survey reveals:

> The national mood has turned up dramatically. Last fall the majority of Americans could see no end to inflation and felt generally that the country was in deep and serious trouble. Only 36% of those surveyed were optimistic about the way things were going at that time; today 46% are.

> The economic stress indicator, a measure of people really hurt by the economy--those having trouble meeting bills, mortgage and rent payments, fearful of losing their jobs or not being able to save for the future--has steadied at 31% (v. 30% last fall). It had risen to a high of 36% in June 1975 from its Soundings low of 23% in May 1974.

> The social resentment indicator--a measure of national alienation and public disgruntlement over such things as traditional values changing too fast--has dropped from 37% last September to 29%.

> The tide of social conservatism is still running strong. A majority of those polled, 55%, urge strongly that the death penalty be reinstated and, by a margin of 60% to 37%, they do not want marijuana smoking decriminalized. At the same time, however, the economic outlook of the majority of those surveyed is liberal, favoring continued Government spending and stronger social programs.

BIG GOVERNMENT

The public, Soundings finds, is not nearly as convinced as most presidential candidates seem to be that the Federal Government should have less power and responsibility. The people split down the middle on the issue, 44% for Big Government and 42% against.

They are only a little more clearly divided on the issue of Government spending. By 48% to 40% they are in favor of putting more money into areas like housing, railroads, education and creating jobs instead of cutting back to achieve a balanced federal budget.

Those interviewed willingly, if unrealistically, endorse less Government spending so long as it does not deprive them personally of any federal help. When requested to itemize their own priorities, people offer a long list of expenditures that they desire--and, hardly a surprising outcome, a far briefer one of cuts. For example, they want more money spent on health care, by a margin of 66% to 4%; more on Social Security by 53% to 8%; more on education by 51% to 14%; more help for the poor by 51 % to 15%; more funds for consumer protection by 44% to 12%; more for housing assistance by 42% to 17%; more for mass transit by 34% to 20%. On more money for defense spending they break evenly, 27% to 26%, with almost half of them undecided.

But, 61% to 5%, they are willing to cut foreign aid, reduce the salaries of Government workers (47% to 9%). Welfare continues to be an inflammatory and contradictory subject. At the same time that half of the voters want to spend additional money for the poor, they also want--46% to 17%--to spend less money on welfare recipients, whom they consider to be undeserving poor.

THE CANDIDATES

While the voters say, by a margin of 55% to 31%, that they are philosophically more disposed to pick a Democrat as President, they declare in the same breath that Gerald Ford is more acceptable than any of the other announced candidates of either party. (Of course, that may change after the Democrats pick their nominee.) The economy's signs of substantial recovery have brought an improvement in the President's standing. Last September, Ford was acceptable to only 46% in TIME'S sample; today 58.% find him acceptable.

Ronald Reagan has surged forward since he became an active candidate, but not apace with Ford nationwide. In a Ford v. Reagan contest, Republicans and independents prefer the President 43% to 30%; another 22% are undecided, and 5% preferred neither.

On the Democratic side, no favorite candidate has emerged. The people who were polled saw Senator Hubert Humphrey as the man most likely to be nominated but not likely to beat Ford. When asked who on their long list of candidates had a good or fair chance of becoming their party's nominee, 74% of the registered Democrats listed Humphrey, 67% named Edward Kennedy, 60% Edmund Muskie, 57% Jimmy Carter, 56% Birch Bayh, 54% George Wallace and 52% Henry Jackson.

In a Ford v. Humphrey race, voters choose the President, 46% to 40% with 14% not sure. Reagan and Humphrey run dead even at 42% apiece, with 16% not sure.

Only 28% of those polled said that they are "very interested" in the primary campaigns. But the general election is quite another matter. Contrary to the assumption that American voters are in an apathetic mood this year, Soundings finds that 57% of registered voters say that they are "very interested" in the November election.

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