Iowa: The Winnowing Begins

Day after day, the Democratic presidential hopefuls crisscrossed the frozen cornland by auto, plane and camper. In sub-zero weather, they grasped outstretched hands at street corners and factory gates. They flooded the mails with thousands of pieces of literature and they saturated the air waves with radio and TV spots. The prize hardly seemed worth the effort: Iowa would send a mere 47 delegates to the national convention out of a total of 3,008. But as the curtain raiser on the nominating process, the Iowa precinct caucuses stood to give one candidate a publicity bonanza and a jump on his rivals.

That is largely what happened. Of some 45,000 Democrats who turned out to vote at the precincts, the biggest bloc went to "uncommitted"--and one party professional wondered: "Is this a vote for Hubert H. Undecided?" Except for that, Iowa proved a significant victory for former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter (see story page 17). He won 27.6% of the vote, or the potential equivalent of 13 convention delegates. His closest rival, Indiana's Senator Birch Bayh, won 13.1%.

Carter, 51, campaigned longest and hardest of all the candidates. By last September, his organization was set up, and it was steadily reinforced by volunteers, including out-of-state supporters and the candidate's two sons, Chip, 25, and Jack, 28. Above all, Carter knew how to appeal to the Iowa voter. He presented himself as a plain-spoken peanut farmer and small businessman who wanted to go to Washington to set things straight. "He understood Iowa," says state Democratic Party Chairman Tom Whitney. "It's a rural state where word of mouth is still the foremost way to communicate. What someone says in Dubuque will be repeated three days later in Council Bluffs." Ever smiling, Jimmy gave his home phone number in Plains, Ga., to folks who asked for it. If he happened to be home when they called, it would be he who answered the phone--not a secretary or an aide.

No Comfort. He was also helped by the emergence of an inflammatory issue. The Iowa Catholic Conference sent out a newsletter suggesting that Carter would support a constitutional amendment against abortion. In fact, Carter is on the record as having opposed such an amendment, but he managed to fudge the issue by saying he would favor a "national statute" limiting abortion. His ambiguous position won him the support of Right-to-Lifers at many precinct meetings. In heavily Catholic Carroll County, he overwhelmed Roman Catholic Sargent Shriver by 47% to 3%.

The other candidates could not take much comfort from Iowa. Bayh's labor support was not as strong as it might have been because Carter cut into it. A large segment of the United Auto Workers in Iowa backed Jimmy. Bayh also waited too long to start organizing and campaigning. "Our problem was too little too late," said Bayh's Iowa campaign manager, Dick Sykes.

With 9.9% of the vote, former Oklahoma Senator Fred Harris did about as well as expected, though he professed to be elated. "Iowa started the winnowing-out process," he said, "and we've been winnowed in." His vote suggested that he enjoys a hard-core support on the left that will stick with him as long as he is in the race.

For Arizona Congressman Morris Udall, Iowa was a near disaster. Unable to set himself apart from his rivals, he remained an unfocused candidate--and largely unknown. Mo won a scant 5.9% of the vote. For Shriver, Iowa was even more of a disaster. With the Catholic vote lost to Carter, he garnered 3.3% of the vote. Though he was not involved in the Iowa caucuses, former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford withdrew from the presidential race last week, citing trouble raising funds and the "ordeal of running a campaign."

Carter clearly has the momentum and the psychological advantage. But he is also acquiring the problems of the front runner. His rivals are going to start pressing him on the issues, particularly abortion. He will no longer be allowed to make vague statements about reducing 1,900 federal agencies to 200 without getting into specifics. Every item of his record as Governor will be scrutinized for flaws, and he will turn out to have his share of them. Liberals, especially, have begun to question his positions. They are skeptical of his convictions and ready to paint him into a conservative corner. The candidate is braced for the onslaught. "The only way to avoid that kind of attack," he shrugs, "is to lose."

Unlike the Democrats, most Iowa Republicans were not called upon to express a preference for a candidate at their precinct caucuses. But a straw poll of 583 voters--in 2.5% of all the precincts--was taken at 62 precincts. President Ford was favored over Ronald Reagan by a mere 45% to 42.5%. It appeared to be a setback for the President, who had the backing of popular Republican Governor Robert Ray.

Until last week the President's campaign staff had counted on strong Midwestern support for Ford even if he loses in the early primaries in New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina. Now that strategy has been put in doubt.

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