Isabelita Returns to the Presidency

Tanned and rested, Argentine President Isabel Peron, 44, returned to Buenos Aires last week from the hills of Cordoba after a 32-day holiday of long walks, a little golf and almost no visitors. Loyal Peronistas promptly attempted to turn her homecoming into a joyous re-enactment of the Oct. 17, 1945, rally that forced the Argentine military to free then Colonel Juan Peron from prison. But despite the sentimental significance of the day, no more than 40,000 turned out to hear Mrs. Peron speak. The disappointing turnout was attributed as much to waning enthusiasm for the Peronist government itself as to fears of possible guerrilla violence.

The country Mrs. Peron returned to rule is every bit as trouble-torn and factionalized as the one she left behind. With inflation running at an annual rate of 250%, the economy is in ruins, and there has been an ominous step-up in guerrilla attacks. Thus the major question facing Argentines is Mrs. Peron's capacity--or lack of it--to govern. Even some Peronistas are beginning to concede that her habitually erratic style of governing and part-time presidency will no longer suffice.

Consuming Fantasy. Pushing Isabelita aside without actually deposing her has become a consuming fantasy of many politicians. One scenario that is talked about has her asking for another leave, this time to embark on a foreign trip that would take her to the United Nations, Geneva, Rome and, finally, Madrid, where she would complete her "recovery" in the suburban quinta where she and Juan Peron lived for most of his 18-year exile.

Responsible leaders of the Peronist movement privately--and sometimes publicly--admit that they have not much time to get Argentina's house in order. Victorio Calabro, governor of Buenos Aires province, stirred up a hornet's nest of recrimination recently when he declared: "We won't make it to [the national elections hi] '77 if we go on this way." Even Mrs. Peron's closest adviser, Angel F. Robledo, who as Interior Minister emerged as the new strongman during her absence, admits as much. "It doesn't matter who is interim President," he said. "Even if it were Winston Churchill, he would still be powerless because of the uncertainty."

Italo Luder, 58, the conscientious but colorless Senate leader who was interim President in Mrs. Peron's absence, is not likely to be confused with Winston Churchill. But Luder is seen as the best alternative to a possible military takeover. "I can't tell you there won't be a coup," said a leading radical Senator last week. "But I think the chances for avoiding one would be much better with Luder than with Mrs. Peron."

Before Isabella's return, Luder signed several decrees designed to cope with the guerrilla threat, including an order placing all police forces under the control of the army. The army is already fighting a Viet Nam-style war of search and destroy in the northwestern province of Tucuman, where 4,500 troops are chasing an uncertain number of guer rillas belonging to the Marxist People's Revolutionary Army (E.R.P.). The reb els are getting bolder. This month 40 members of the Montoneros, a leftist guerrilla faction of the Peronistas, assaulted the headquarters of the 29th Infantry Regiment in Formosa province.

So far, the military has been divided on the question of whether the guerrillas can be controlled more effectively with Mrs. Peron at the helm or without her. Senior officers caution that to depose Isabelita would mean fighting both guerrillas and Peronistas. But younger officers feel that the army must move to oust a corrupt and incompetent regime. One misstep by Isabelita--or another bloody encounter like Formosa--could well be decisive.

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