Suleyman the Troubled

For Turkish voters it was the sharpest choice ever between the old political style and the new. There was bulbous Premier Suleyman Demirel, 51, speaking to a partisan crowd of 70,000 in Istanbul's Taksim Square and denouncing opposition leaders as "dangerous coddlers of Communism and anarchy. To vote for such people is a sin, sin, sin." His supporters roared back the ancient Ottoman chant: "Suleyman the Magnificent!"

By contrast, ebullient, shirt-sleeved Biilent Ecevit, campaigning in the Anatolian city of Eskisehir, charged that Turkish foreign policy was "controlled by the U.S. Congress," and denounced government corruption. A onetime graduate student at Harvard, former Premier Ecevit, 50, plunged into the throngs to press the flesh U.S.-style. For the first time in Turkey's history, women were a noticeable part of the youthful crowds at his rallies.

When the campaign ended last week, the old style had hung on, but by a margin so slim that it left the government with an uncertain mandate. Ecevit, whose Republican People's Party favors bigger social welfare programs and a strongly nationalist foreign policy, racked up big majorities in Ankara, Istanbul and other big cities. But Premier Demirel's support of free enterprise and his appeal to traditional religious values carried the normally conservative rural areas and older voters.

Popularity Contest. That was enough to give his Justice Party a small gain in Assembly seats, though it lost a bit of strength in the less important Senate. Almost everyone recognized the off-year election as really being a national referendum between the country's two main parties, and a popularity contest between Turkey's two best-known politicians. In the overall vote, Demirel's party got 41 % (up 11 % from 1973), while Ecevit's R.P.P. scored 43.8%, a 10% gain. Only scraps were left for four minor parties that previously shared one-third of the vote. This meant Turkey might well return to a stable two-party system in the next general election, scheduled for 1977.

Demirel's coalition government faces pressing, immediate difficulties. The Premier had put off any new initiative to resolve the Cyprus crisis until after the election and until the U.S. Congress lifted its embargo of arms to Turkey. Demirel's real problem is that the National Salvation Party, a critical partner in his coalition, opposes any concessions to Greece or to Greek Cypriots that would affect Turkish military occupation of two-fifths of the divided island. The Premier could thus bring down the government if he pushes for a Cyprus accord acceptable to Athens.

Demirel has reportedly assured President Ford that he will try for a settlement. Turkey's invasion and occupation have already cost $1 billion, roughly 3.7% of the G.N.P. in a country that has 13% unemployment and 20% inflation. Moreover, new aid and arms packages come before the U.S. Congress later this winter, and lack of movement on Cyprus could prompt another embargo.

Ecevit, who became a national hero when he ordered the Cyprus invasion while Premier, might well be boosted back to power by any new flexing of U.S. muscle. During the campaign, Ecevit seized upon a U.S. congressional requirement--after the lifting of the embargo--that President Ford would make sure Turkey stopped its renewed poppy crop from going back into the illegal heroin pipeline. "Turkey cannot accept this [interference]," said Ecevit. Trying to prove his own independence from the U.S., Demirel continues to oppose any immediate return of control to the U.S. of its 25 military bases in Turkey, which the government seized last July. Demirel nonetheless fears a new U.S. arms embargo; the Turkish military is convinced that because of the last one, the relative strength of the Greek army has increased. But for all his government's problems, the first step must be movement on a Cyprus accord. As Greek Premier Constantine Caramanlis warned after the election, "Only a few weeks remain to prove Turkey's good faith and the intelligence of those who have believed her promises."

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