The Growing Challenge of Reagan

Gerald Ford, the nonelected President, has crisscrossed the country for months in a forlorn attempt to build a constituency among Republicans that would guarantee him the party's nomination in 1976. Last week former Treasury Secretary John Connally said publicly what other astute political experts have been saying privately for weeks: Ford's campaigning has been a "political mistake." Instead of building support, the forays have demonstrated his critical inability to inspire and stir up the voters. His failure has given new impetus to the candidacy of former California Governor Ronald Reagan.

Long Shot. Ford leads in the most recent polls. He has lined up more support among prominent Republicans and raised more money ($706,925 to Reagan's $396,462 as of Oct. 1). Nonetheless, Reagan, 64, is gaining ground, particularly among grass-roots Republicans who are attracted by his unswervingly conservative politics, personal charm and skill as an orator. Though few political experts give Reagan more than a long-shot chance to win the nomination, his gains are causing consternation among some White House aides. Said one: "Reagan's support is hard, and Ford's is soft. A good showing by Reagan could have a snowball effect." That prospect caused the Ford election committee to call an urgent meeting of top Republican officials this week to decide how to deal organizationally with the Reagan threat.

Also this week the Californian steps up the tempo of his unannounced campaign with speeches to New York Conservative Party members in Manhattan, Republicans in Long Island's Suffolk County, the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia and the Yale Political Union in New Haven. After similar swings through Minnesota and New Mexico in the coming weeks, associates say, he will formally announce his candidacy in late November at a splashy Washington press conference, followed by quick visits to major cities and a publicity blitz.

Instead of attacking Ford headon, Reagan is trying to identify him indirectly as part of "the problem in Washington." Reagan promises "a program of creative federalism for America's third century." As outlined recently in a speech to businessmen in Chicago, his program seems both superficial and unworkable--one reason why some Republicans question whether he has the intellectual capacity to serve as President. He pledges to turn over to state and local governments many of the health, education and welfare responsibilities now borne by the Federal Government. Such a transfer, he predicts, would cut $90 billion from federal expenditures, enabling the Government to balance its budget, pay off $5 billion of the national debt and cut personal income taxes by an average of 23%. Reagan concedes that state and local government budgets would increase as a result, but he believes that "the surviving programs" would be run more efficiently and economically.

Spending much of his time in public appearances that earn him fees of up to $5,000, Reagan has largely left his campaign strategy to two shrewd political professionals, John Sears, a former aide to Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew, and Lyn Nofziger, Reagan's press secretary as Governor. Sears and Nofziger, operating out of a nondescript building in Washington, have concentrated on two early primaries: in New Hampshire on Feb. 24 and in Florida on March 9. Both states have large numbers of conservative Republicans who savor Reagan's fundamentalism.

In both states, the Reagan strategists have set up embryonic but well-organized committees, headed in New Hampshire by former Governor Hugh Gregg and in Florida by former State Republican Chairman Luther Thomas. Sears and Nofziger hope that by doing well in both primaries, Reagan can establish a momentum that will sweep the other important primaries and even win over states where delegates are selected in conventions. Unfortunately for Ford, Reagan probably needs only to run strongly in the New Hampshire and Florida primaries, not win them outright. Notes a White House aide: "When an incumbent President makes a lackluster showing in a primary, that's death, baby."

Shifting Right. At first, Ford's strategy was to discourage Reagan from running. To that end, the President shifted his position on the issues farther to the right, championing a tougher stance on detente with the U.S.S.R., less Government regulation of Americans' lives and businesses and a tightfisted approach to social welfare programs. This seems to have paid off in the Midwest and populous Eastern states, where Ford has his strongest support among Republicans. But his campaign manager, "Bo" Callaway (see box following page), has largely failed to undermine support for Reagan hi the South and in California.

Most Republican leaders in the South back Ford, but about half of the Republican voters seem to prefer Reagan, in part because of their intense dislike of Vice President Nelson Rockefeller. In the latest California poll, taken in August among Republicans, Ford leads Reagan, 54% to 45%, but Pollster Mervin Field regards Ford's lead as uncomfortably thin.

Even though most political experts agree with Callaway that Ford will eventually win, the President acts as if he is running scared, an odd posture for an incumbent. For the rest of the year he plans to spend about half of his time away from Washington. In addition to scheduled trips to Florida and California, he will participate in an economic summit meeting in Paris in mid-November, followed around Thanksgiving by a visit to China and possibly other Asian countries. By a show of statesmanship abroad, he hopes to cultivate support at home.

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