Out But Not Down

All-night meetings, military feints, rumors of a coup or even a civil war --nothing seemed able to stir Portugal from its state of near-paralysis. For most of last week, as overwhelming majorities of the military and the public called for him to resign, pro-Communist Premier Vasco dos Santos Gonc,alves hung on, issuing dark warnings that if he were ousted, the Communist Party's armed militia would swing into action.

Suddenly, late in the week, Gonc,alves let go--but not entirely. A communique issued from the presidential palace announced that he would be replaced as Premier by Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Jose Batista Pinheiro de Azevedo, 58, a career officer who has occasionally filled in for President Francisco da Costa Gomes. Gonc,alves himself was given the post of Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, which Costa Gomes had held simultaneously with the presidency.

If the long awaited switch was a settlement, it seemed unlikely to prove a solution to the political crisis that has plagued the country for the past two months. For one thing, Pinheiro de Azevedo's politics are somewhat suspect to the moderates; some of his closest aides are staunch Communists. For another, Gonc,alves was out but not down. As Chief of Staff, he would still wield considerable power. The switch did not placate the nine moderate military officers, headed by former Foreign Minister Major Ernesto Melo Antunes, who had campaigned for Gonc,alves' ouster on the grounds that he was proCommunist. They declared the decision "illegal" because they were not consulted, and could easily produce a more forceful response.

The new Premier's political leanings are not known. But after visiting Washington in May, he declared that the U.S. State Department had a realistic appreciation of Portugal's political situation. Later in Brussels at a meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he said that it was essential that Portugal remain in NATO. The moderates' strongest objections are thus directed less at the new Premier than at Gonc,alves' retention as Chief of Staff. In fact, his removal as Premier, far from avoiding a showdown, might very well hasten one.

In several marathon talks throughout the week with Costa Gomes, the chiefs of staff and members of the all-military Revolutionary Council, Gonc,alves had exerted every effort to survive. "They may have to march Gonc,alves out at the end of a barrel of a gun," said one Western diplomat. "But the alternative would be an uprising in the countryside." In fact, violence continued to erupt in northern and central Portugal, where mobs have wrecked some 50 Communist Party headquarters this summer. When a power failure cut off electricity throughout the country for a day, there were widespread fears that a coup was actually under way.

But as pressure mounted, Costa Gomes could delay no longer. Leaders of the independence movement in the Portuguese-owned Azores let it be known that they were poised to break away if Gonc,alves' leftist government stayed on much longer. Army officers on the Atlantic island of Madeira also advised Costa Gomes that the population there would declare independence if the "minority unpopular central government"--meaning Gonc,alves--"continues in office."

Even Washington got into the act. U.S. Ambassador Frank Carlucci called on Costa Gomes and told him the U.S. would be reluctant to help out on the airlift of refugees from the war-torn African territory of Angola as long as Gonc,alves stayed on. Later in the week, however, the U.S. agreed "in principle" that for humanitarian reasons it would aid the Angolan airlift with as many as eight jet flights a day.

The original strategy of the Melo Antunes group gave Costa Gomes until early last week to remove Gonc,alves and install a new government that would provide for representation of the political parties. If the President failed to act, then the moderates were prepared to make a show of force. One plan called for them to surround Lisbon with military units, cut off access from the rest of the country, and interrupt water and electricity supplies.

At one point, when Gonc,alves spoke of mobilizing a 3,500-man Communist militia, the moderates nearly lost their nerve. One of their major allies, Internal Security Chief Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, withdrew his support; so did Army Chief of Staff General Carlos Fabiao, who had been prepared to head up a new government. But the pendulum soon swung the other way, and before the week was out, Saraiva de Carvalho executed an aboutface and again seemed to be in league with the moderates.

Even if the new government can marshal support, the regime's v problems will be far from over. Some 60,000 refugees have already returned from Angola, where three liberation groups are engaged in a bloody contest for power. In all, at least 300,000 are expected to reach Portugal before Angola becomes independent in November.

The refugees, most of whom tend to be intensely conservative, blame Lisbon's leftist military regime for creating the conditions that forced them to return to Portugal. Those who have so far returned report that a common farewell to refugees departing from the Angolan capital of Luanda is: "Don't kill all the Communists--be sure to leave one for me!" As one observer put it, the returnees "represent a ticking time bomb for the military regime." And not the only one.

A high-level Portuguese envoy headed for the war-torn colony of Portuguese Timor in the Indonesian archipelago last week following talks with Indonesian government officials on ways to end the fighting. The envoy, Dr. Almeida Santos, was scheduled to discuss the situation en route with Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam. He is then expected to fly to the offshore island of Atauro, where the Portuguese colonial government had fled earlier in the week. Australia, 400 miles from Timor, was believed to be happy for Indonesia to intervene if Portugal agreed.

Fighting between the Timorese Democratic Union (U.D.T.) and the radical Fretelin party broke out three weeks ago when the U.D.T. staged a coup. Since then Fretelin, seeking to unseat the U.D.T., has reportedly gained control of the capital of Dili. Refugees fleeing the island told chilling stories of heavy casualties and numerous atrocities. The captain of the MacDili, a freighter that has been ferrying refugees to Darwin, described the fighting as "bloody carnage." Estimates of the death toll ranged from several hundred to 2,000. An Australian engineer who fled to Darwin last week said: "Children are being picked up by the feet and their heads smashed against the trunks of trees. Old men and women have been slaughtered."

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.