Unemployment Down-No Fluke

There was little cheering over last month's report that the unemployment rate had finally dropped, from 9.2% in May to 8.6% in June. The Government labeled the decline a fluke, distorted by imprecise measurements of the number of students entering the job market; experts unanimously predicted a new climb in joblessness during July. Instead, the Labor Department reported last week that the July rate dropped further, to 8.4%, and this time it said that the figure was as exact as statistical techniques can make it. Surprised Administration economists still think the rate might go up again in August; but even if it does, that will not alter the conclusion, now widely held among economists, that the nation's worst recession since the 1930s is definitely over.

The extent of the improvement in the job market was underscored by some other figures: total employment rose by 634,000, to 85.1 million; the average work week lengthened slightly, and factory overtime unexpectedly increased. An especially heartening factor: unemployment rates dropped most sharply for teenagers, adult women and blacks--precisely the groups whose unemployment rates are highest.

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