Bits of Progress, Lots of Bluster

The raging rhetoric and rodomontade that are customary between Arabs and Israelis sometimes signify more bark than bite. Last week, as Cairo and Jerusalem were engaged in an elaborate game of diplomatic bluff, the rhetoric exploded again. Negotiations over a second-stage disengagement in Sinai hit snags that on the surface at least indicated the possibility of deadlock. But even as Israeli Premier Yitzhak Rabin was dismissing Egyptian proposals as unacceptable last week, he was also insisting that the talks must continue.

With Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and U.S. Ambassador to Cairo Herman Eilts acting as intermediaries, Israel two weeks ago had presented to Cairo its own proposals concerning a further pullback in the Sinai. The interminable negotiations center around the strategic Mitla and Giddi passes in the desert. In its latest offer, Israel agreed to let U.S. electronic technicians operate the key listening post at Umm Khisheib above the passes. But Jerusalem proposed additional Israeli posts near by and insisted upon keeping Israeli troops on the eastern rims of the passes as a defensive measure.

Back to Washington last week, for transmission to Jerusalem, came an Egyptian counterproposal. Offering a map for the first time, Cairo reportedly accepted in principle the presence of Israelis at the eastern edge of the passes, although not in the same places that Jerusalem suggested. The lines drawn by the Egyptians came so close to the big Israeli airbase at Bir Gifgafa that Rabin, even before he consulted with his Cabinet, appeared on Israeli television to dismiss Cairo's suggestions out of hand.

Slow Progress. Meanwhile, a drumfire of anger punctuated the disengagement discussion. Egypt unexpectedly announced that it would not, as anticipated, automatically extend a mandate for United Nations peacekeeping forces in Sinai in view of the slow progress toward peace. War Minister Mohammed Abdul Ghani Gamassy issued an order of the day to his army: "Stand fully ready to complete the assignment which you carried out in one stage on the sixth of October."

In a Cairo interview with TIME Correspondent William Marmon, Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy accused the Israelis of bad faith: "They are always like this. They want to bargain--on every level and in every direction. They link everything to what they can get from the U.S. and this is blackmail. They know they must be out of the passes, but they want a price. They are trying to gain time. They are looking at the internal situation in the U.S. trying to figure out if Ford is the strong man, if Kissinger can last, if the Congress will respond to their tactics, and how many million dollars they can squeeze out of you. The ultimate objective is to hold on to as much land as possible." Referring to Israel's hesitation before agreeing to the use of American technicians, Fahmy said: "They took the equipment from the U.S.; you have good relations and yet they refuse to allow Americans to man it. This is shocking."

Sadat's Ploy. After milking the melodramatic possibilities of the threat, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, only 30 hours before the old mandate expired, magnanimously accepted a "dawn appeal" by the U.N. Security Council to extend it for three more months (rather than six as suggested by Israel). Egyptian spokesmen insisted that Sadat's ploy had succeeded, since it had alerted the world to the dangerous potentialities of the Sinai situation. Some observers suspected that the President had made his threat in order to convince Egypt's more militant Arab allies that he can be tough.

Israel had responded to the Egyptian moves by calling up reservists to the Sinai front, but Rabin and his government doubted all along that Egypt was economically or militarily ready for another war. The Israelis were less angered by Egypt's threat than by some of the hostile language emanating from Cairo. Sadat referred to Israel as an "imperial creation" and as "a dagger in Egypt's side." Visibly annoyed, Premier Rabin charged that Sadat was not serious about peace, and that there could be no agreement unless and until the Egyptians agree to face-to-face talks. This is still unacceptable to Cairo, and the Israelis know it all too well. But whether Rabin was talking about actual negotiations between generals concerning new disengagement lines or simply a formal ceremony to sign an agreement--which Egypt would accept --was unclear as the two sides jockeyed back and forth for advantages.

Observing from Washington the ploys and counterploys last week, Henry Kissinger estimated that there were still "considerable gaps" between the two positions on Sinai. But the Secretary added, not altogether facetiously: "If the two sides can survive each other's public statements, which is not yet self-evident to me, I believe they are now beginning to talk about the same range of issues in a negotiating manner."

Kissinger himself is still hopeful that the gaps will be narrow enough by mid-August to allow him to return to the Middle East to wrap things up with some fast shuttle diplomacy. Indeed, some Washington observers of the negotiations believe that Jerusalem and Cairo may simply be spinning wheels until he gets there. On Israel's part, at least, there is certainly a serious matter of timing involved. Israeli negotiators must decide whether it makes sense for them to accept any agreement prior to the convention of the U.N. General Assembly in September. One key item on the Assembly's agenda will be an Arab-sponsored move by the Third World bloc to suspend Israel from Assembly debates because of its refusal to obey U.N. resolutions ordering Jerusalem to surrender occupied Arab territory in return for secure borders. Many Israelis would prefer to await the outcome of that vote before agreeing to accept another Sinai disengagement.

Even if Israel and Egypt do reach an early accord, Middle East tensions will not automatically diminish. On at least one other Israeli-Arab border--the Golan Heights--they will probably increase. Another U.N. mandate on the Golan expires in November, and there is no immediate prospect of any disengagement talks on this front. Syria and Israel both suspect each other of preparing pre-emptive attacks. Last week also, Israel accused Jordan's King Hussein of massing troops for a possible attack--even though the border is quiet and record numbers of Palestinians are crossing the open bridges on the Jordan River to visit the occupied West Bank.

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