The Battle Over the Passes

Israeli Ambassador to Washington Simcha Dinitz flew down to the Virgin Islands last week, but not for the sunshine and sea breezes of Cancel Bay. Dinitz instead spent two days conferring secretly with vacationing Secretary of State Henry Kissinger about the status of Israeli-Egyptian negotiations over further disengagement in the Sinai. Dinitz capped those talks with follow-up meetings at the State Department, then flew home to Israel to attend a crucial weekend meeting of Premier Yitzhak Rabin's Cabinet. As if to underscore the urgency of his mission, shortly after his return a terrorist bomb went off in Jerusalem's main square, killing 13 persons and injuring 72. It was the bloodiest incident in the city since the fighting that preceded Israel's founding in 1948.

Dinitz carried with him the details of what Washington believes are the final Egyptian proposals for a second-stage Sinai deal. He also brought a special hint from Washington: if Israel agrees to U.S.-backed Egyptian demands that it withdraw its forces completely from the strategic Mitla and Giddi passes and the Abu Rudeis oilfields, then Israel may be able to count on continued American military, economic and political support.

These latest developments in the Sinai talks, which have swayed from the verge of success to the edge of collapse since Kissinger's shuttle talks deadlocked last March, elicited both optimism and pessimism. The optimists for the most part were American. One U.S. policy expert rated the odds at "better than even" that the Israeli Cabinet could come up with suitable concessions for Egyptian President Anwar Sadat that would be palatable at home as well as abroad. If it did, said the expert, the second-stage disengagement could be wrapped up easily.

Invitation to War. Washington's hopeful mood was not shared by Jerusalem. The Israelis are unhappy about their growing conflict with Washington. Kissinger and President Ford have privately blamed Israel for the collapse of the shuttle talks. As part of its reassessment of Middle East policy, the Administration has so far refused to discuss $2.5 billion worth of new aid and arms requests from the Rabin government--a not so subtle pressure on Jerusalem to yield. Ford called Dinitz to the White House to discuss the Egyptian proposals on the Sinai. In Israel, there were exaggerated stories that the President had given the ambassador a "brutal" ultimatum to make concessions or risk losing U.S. support. Ford denied that he had given Dinitz any ultimatum but insisted that a Sinai deadlock was "an open invitation to war." Unless the deadlock ends, Ford indicated, the U.S. may be forced to agree to a Geneva conference, which it does not really want under such conditions, and might make its own suggestions there for a solution. Complained Ma'ariv, Israel's largest newspaper: "The Americans are pressing Israel against the wall."

The chief obstacle to solving the deadlock remained the status of the Mitla and Giddi passes in the Sinai. The passes are the only viable routes through the Sinai mountains for armies moving either toward the Suez Canal or away from it toward the Israeli border. Israel, which controls the passes, has offered to pull back to their eastern end, where it maintains electronic listening equipment to monitor Egyptian troop movements. Egypt's Sadat, on the other hand, demands that Israel pull out of both passes completely. He has threatened not to renew the mandate of the United Nations peace-keeping forces, presently wedged between the two opposing armies in the Sinai. The latest mandate is due to expire in two weeks.

Resisting Pressure. Among Israelis there is a difference of opinion about the value of the passes and the electronic monitors there. Some experts believe that other mountain peaks in the Sinai would serve just as well as monitoring stations, and Israel could successfully halt an Egyptian attack even if it had to give up the passes. But the Israeli General Staff wants to keep the passes. Guiding newsmen on a tour of Giddi and Mitla last week, Colonel Simcha Maoz of the General Staff pointed out that any Egyptian armor allowed through the passes could outflank the mammoth Israeli base at Bir Gafgafa, 15 miles to the north.

One factor that has so far inspired Rabin to resist Washington's pressure is his knowledge that although Sadat wants the passes, he is not anxious to fight for them at this point, particularly since the Egyptian economy is in serious disarray. Until now, Sadat's offers--a three-year truce agreement and demilitarization of the passes with some sort of third-party supervision, perhaps by U.S. electronic gear--have not been enough. Jerusalem wants other concessions, such as a relaxation on Egypt's part of the Arab trade boycott against Israel or an end to anti-Israel propaganda. As a result, Israeli diplomats awaited Washington's reading of Sadat's latest offers with skeptical interest, since Rabin is scheduled to visit West Germany this week and Kissinger will be in Geneva to confer with Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko. Israel's Premier might ask Washington for even more "clarification" than he gets from Dinitz. Translation: Rabin was desperately trying to find a way out of having to accept the U.S.-Egyptian terms. Under one proposal, which neither Jerusalem nor Cairo has explicitly rejected, the two passes could be demilitarized and put under control of United Nations forces. But U.S. technicians would man the monitors, much as American satellites on orbits over the Sinai now take troop-disposition pictures that are provided to both Egypt and Israel.

Shards of Metal. Rabin has urgent domestic reasons for making an airtight agreement before ceding back any more captured territory. The Premier is being pressured by Israeli hawks. Rabin declared last February that he would never surrender the passes for anything less than an Egyptian declaration of nonbelligerency. To go back now on that highly popular promise might topple his government. The principal threat to Rabin comes from Defense Minister Shimon Peres, who was Rabin's principal rival for the Premier's post last year and still has an eye on the job. Peres' hawkish stand on the passes is strongly backed by public opinion; more than 60% of Israelis, according to recent polls, agree that the country should hold on to the Mitla and Giddi.

Public feeling about making concessions to the Arabs undoubtedly stiffened after the Jerusalem explosion. In Beirut a Palestine Liberation Organization umbrella group attributed the attack to an Israeli-based terrorist unit called the Martyr Farid al Boubaly Brigade. The purpose apparently was to slow the pace of peace negotiations.

The bomb was hidden in an old refrigerator that was deposited in an area of shops and restaurants. "I saw a terrific ball of flame and black smoke," said Ephraim Warshavsky, manager of a nearby tool shop. Warshavsky had inspected the refrigerator after he saw some men in a truck put it on the sidewalk, but found nothing inside. (The explosives were apparently strapped underneath.) He called police, however, who were only 40 yds. away when the bomb exploded. The bomb itself was not particularly powerful, but the square was packed with shoppers preparing for the Jewish Sabbath. They were cut down by shards of metal and pieces of flying glass. An angry mob of several hundred stone-throwing Jews set upon innocent Arabs who happened to be caught in the area. A group of Arabs in the open-air market on Jaffa Road was attacked, and four Arabs near the Old City were beaten and stoned.

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