More Optimism, Less Resentment

Buoyed by the Mayaguez rescue and many economists' predictions that recovery from the recession is just around the corner, Americans seem to be regaining confidence in their country and its future. Some 40% now believe that things are going well in the country, up sharply from 23% in February. Slightly more than one out of three Americans still worry a lot about becoming unemployed, but the number concerned about inflation has dropped to 53%, down twelve points since last winter. Moreover, the public shows no signs of turning isolationist because of the failure of U.S. policy in Southeast Asia. Indeed, only one out of four people thinks that the U.S. "from now on should not intervene militarily in another country."

These were the major findings of the latest TIME Soundings, a quarterly survey of the mood and outlook of Americans that began in May 1974. Soundings consists of a series of political and social indicators that were developed for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc., the New York-based public-opinion-research firm. The analysts tabulated the recent results last week from telephone interviews conducted in mid-May with a representative sample of 1,014 Americans of voting age. Results for each individual survey have an error factor of plus or minus 3%; in estimating trends from one quarter to another, the error factor is plus or minus 4%.

THE TRENDS. The latest survey turned up significant developments in four of Soundings' regular indicators. Items:

o The proportion of Americans who perceive themselves in economic distress has leveled off at 36%, up only one point since February; that is still the high since Soundings began, when 23% were in economic distress. Predominantly young and blue collar, these people have been worst hit by the recession.

o Social resentment, which measures those people who are disapproving of and angry about social and political trends in the U.S., dropped to 28% from 33% in February, and now stands at about the same as in May 1974 (27%).

o Conservatism seems to be ebbing. For the first time since Soundings was started, those polled who either call themselves conservative or hold generally conservative views constitute a minority (48%, compared with a high of 53% last fall).

o The national mood, the indicator that evaluates the state of the nation's morale and confidence in the future, has made a dramatic turn upward. Some 29% of those surveyed were optimistic, compared with 19% in February.

The growing public confidence has been spurred by both domestic and foreign developments. Because of the definite feeling in the country that the recession has bottomed out, only 31% of those surveyed now believe that the U.S. runs a risk of a major depression, down from 43% in February. At the same time, the public greeted the end of the war in Southeast Asia with a sense of relief, probably because most people had long expected an eventual Communist victory. And more than four out of five Americans think criticism of the Mayaguez rescue operation was unfair.

VIET NAM. Soundings found that most Americans are not interested in engaging in a national debate over who in the U.S.--if anyone--is most responsible for the Communist victories in Southeast Asia. A high 68% of those surveyed believe that "we should put Viet Nam behind us and not worry about who was to blame"; another 16% partially share that view. Only 19% think that a lack of commitment by the American people was largely responsible for the defeat. More than three out of four see at least three major factors as having contributed partly to the outcome: 1) corruption in South Viet Nam, 2) the determination and dedication of the North Vietnamese, 3) the Soviet and Chinese support of North Viet Nam.

Scarcely one in five Americans believes that the collapse of South Viet Nam threatened U.S. security. Now 46% think that the U.S. had no right to be involved in the war in the first place, a view partly held by another 20%. Interestingly, a majority of those who now most strongly maintain that the U.S. should have stayed out of Viet Nam are elderly (57% of those over 65, v. 47% of those aged 18 to 24), Democrats (51%, v. 42% of the Republicans) and the less affluent (53% of those earning less than $15,000 annually, v. 40% of those earning more).

Asked who in the U.S. had a heavy responsibility for what happened in Southeast Asia, 17% cited Congress and 58% named a President. But the people surveyed clearly fault some Presidents more than others. They assess the blame as follows:

A Lot A Little None

Eisenhower 15% 32% 39%

Kennedy 20 34 39

Johnson 30 39 24

Nixon 37 32 25

Ford 9 29 59

Republicans assigned very little of the responsibility for Viet Nam to Nixon (8%), instead blaming Johnson (42%) and Kennedy (25%). Democrats often assessed primary blame upon Nixon (32%) and Johnson (21%). Since Democrats and Republicans receive about the same degree of blame, the analysts concluded that the war should not be a telling issue for either party in 1976.

FOREIGN POLICY. Only 13% of those polled now regard the U.S. as a second-rate nation, and 62% agree that the U.S. is losing some of its power. Most (52%) say that they are bothered little or not at all by the loss. But this does not mean that Americans are becoming isolationist. Nearly three out of four people believe that the U.S. needs foreign trade for its economic security and foreign allies for its military security. Moreover, 71% refused to rule out future foreign military intervention by the U.S.

But Americans are divided over the extent to which the U.S. should involve itself in the world's trouble in the future. About one-third believe that "it is more important than ever to live up to our commitments to send military equipment and aid, but not troops, to Israel in case of aggression." Another one-third partially share this view. But a final third disagree and would not aid Israel.

Similarly, 29% feel that the U.S. must be ready to ship more equipment, but not more men, to South Korea in the event of an invasion from the North. Another 28% agree in part, but 40% disagree and would not help Seoul at all. On the other hand, 37% strongly agree and 25% partially agree that the U.S. should recognize Cuba. Americans also support detente; only 27% believe that cooperating closely with the Soviet Union or China is dangerous.

When voters look ahead to the 1976 presidential election, they put Ford far out in front of the other major potential candidates, whether Republican or Democrat. Some 58% now find him an acceptable candidate, up from 48% last winter; in second place is Democratic Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts with a 43% acceptability rating, followed by Republican Ronald Reagan (39%), Democratic Governor George Wallace of Alabama (38%), Democratic Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine (36%), Republican Vice President Nelson Rockefeller (34%) and Democratic Senator Henry Jackson of Washington (33%). Still, only 9% of the electorate are very enthusiastic about a Ford candidacy. Fully 43% of the voters continue to support no candidate at all.

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