A Resounding Vote for Moderation

One year to the day after the "revolution of flowers" that ended a half-century of oppressive dictatorship, the Portuguese people went to the polls last week to vote for a new constituent assembly. It was the country's first free election in three generations, and for an electorate so long disenfranchised, the voters spoke with a remarkably clear voice. Parties representing moderate positions in Portugal's left-hued political spectrum received nearly 70% of the ballots; the Communists, their allies and a slew of tiny radical parties received less than 20% of the vote.

In ordinary circumstances, such an outcome would serve to allay fears that the ruling Armed Forces Movement (M.F.A.) was easing Portugal toward Communism. But these are not ordinary times in Lisbon, and the M.F.A. had made sure in advance that last week's voting would be little more than an opinion poll and an exercise in "political education" for a populace that they do not consider ready for full democracy.

The election was held to choose 247 members of an assembly that is to write a new constitution, but its terms were sharply circumscribed. The major parties bowed to the M.F.A.'s demand that the military oversee operations of the government for the next three to five years. It was made plain that the present Cabinet of Premier Vasco dos Santos Goncalves would not be substantially changed, no matter what the electoral outcome. In it, the Socialists, Popular Democrats and Communists each have two portfolios, and the Democratic Movement one. Real power will remain with the 28-member Revolutionary Council, composed of President Francisco da Costa Gomes, Premier Goncalves and other officers whose exact political makeup is not known, but who lean heavily to the left.

Political Binge. No matter: from the poor, heavily Communist Alentejo region in the south to the staunchly Roman Catholic north, Portugal went on a political binge, seeming to revel in the pure joy of participating in any kind of balloting. Although the number of political parties had been pared down from more than 50 to twelve (some parties have been banned by the M.F.A.), one Lisbon schoolboy aptly described the confusion of it all. "My father belongs to the Revolutionary Brigades, my mother is a Socialist, my brother is a Maoist," he said. "In a way, I'm glad I'm not old enough to vote."

Coming down the stretch, each party took its turn appealing to the voters. On Sunday, the Socialists took over Lisbon's May 1 Stadium for a windup rally that attracted 60,000 people, whom Party Leader Mario Scares told: "We want to march in the direction of freedom." Tuesday night, the Popular Democrats, perhaps 5,000 in all, assembled in Lisbon's Sports Pavilion for what was more a bell-bottomed social occasion of the chic Estoril set than a serious political meeting. On Wednesday night, the Communists drew 60,000 in the May 1 Stadium. While vendors hawked red flags, buttons and pens, Party Chief Alvaro Cunhal intoned: "We Communists appeal to civic duty and order."

On election day, in an astounding turnout, an estimated 91% of the country's 6.1 million eligible voters went to the polls. Their choice was not made easy: the parties had similar programs. With the exception of the conservative Center Social Democrats, who back free enterprise, all favored some form of socialism for Portugal. The Socialists differ from the Communist Party mainly in putting liberty first. All the major parties, even the Communists, profess support for keeping the country in the NATO alliance, at least in the near future.

When the ballots were counted, Soares' Socialists captured 38% of the vote while the Popular Democrats followed with 26%--thus giving the two most moderate parties in the coalition government a comfortable majority in the constituent assembly. Despite their tightly disciplined organization, Cunhal's Communists trailed with 13%; Octavio Pato, No. 2 man in the party, had said that anything less than 20% would be considered "unsatisfactory." The eight smaller, fringe parties together got less than 8%. The Center Social Democrats, the only conservative party permitted in the election, picked up a meager 8%. The blank ballots were only 7% of the total. The M.F.A. had suggested that those who were not able to choose among the parties simply leave their ballots unmarked (a suggestion the country's Roman Catholic bishops had condemned).

The moderates' victory clearly gives them an irrefutable claim to popular legitimacy, a fact that could bolster the strength of the moderates within the M.F.A. Said a pleased Magalhaes Motta, a Popular Democrat minister in the Cabinet: "Our opponents will have to take account of the voting." Said a delighted Soares of the Socialist showing: "Not bad, not bad at all."

Caustic Jokes. With the elections behind them, Portugal's leaders can concentrate afresh on their difficulties, which are considerable. The leftist swerve of the military and the uncertainties of Portugal's political future have already severely aggravated the country's economic problems. From President Costa Gomes on down, officials are worried about the lack of skilled managers to run the recently nationalized banks, insurance companies and other industries (see interviews). Tourism has fallen sharply; foreign investment has virtually dried up. Western economic help has also been slow in coming, largely because most countries have been unwilling to commit large amounts of aid until they have a clearer picture of what Portugal's turbulent situation really means.

Relations with Washington have been particularly touchy since Costa Gomes visited the U.S. last fall and exchanged some sharp words with Henry Kissinger. The Portuguese President is reportedly still bitter about one incident. When he told Kissinger that Communist popular support in Portugal was minimal, Kissinger snapped back: "It was only 4% in Poland." The ill will toward the U.S. has spawned some caustic jokes. One, for example, has Kissinger talking over the phone to CIA Director William Colby. "No, no, Bill," he says, "I said Cunhal, not Faisal."

Yet Portugal's balance sheet is not all minus at the end of its first year of relative freedom. Two of the revolution's foremost promises--the rapid decolonization of the African territories and last week's election--had been kept. No one expected Portugal's military rulers to alter their course significantly because of the election. But they bothered to hold the election, at least in part, to gain a sort of democratic legitimacy, and they are not likely to ignore last week's "opinion poll" entirely. In coming down so clearly on the side of the moderate parties, the voters may yet work a moderating influence on the military men in command.

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