Giscard's Gamble

It began last month with a minor dispute over a change in shifts in one Paris mail-sorting station. But by last week France was facing its worst labor unrest since the protests of May 1968 that nearly toppled Charles de Gaulle. The postal spat quickly developed into a strike that spread to the entire mail system, paralyzing thousands of dependent businesses. In the past fortnight meanwhile, coal miners, railway men, electric-utility workers, hospital employees, customs officials, Paris bus drivers and even veterinarians have walked off their jobs for at least a day. Last week Interior Minister Michel Poniatowski outraged union leaders by sending in police to oust picketers from postal facilities. As a result, a majority of France's 21 million workers are expected to respond to a union call for a 24-hour general strike this week.

The signs of unrest clearly indicated that for Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the honeymoon was over. Actually, some observers were surprised that a confrontation between the center-right President and the leftist French unions had been delayed so long. As Finance Minister in the government of the late Georges Pompidou, Giscard was widely famed as an economic wizard--a reputation that was largely responsible for his narrow victory over Socialist Franc,ois Mitterrand in last May's elections. Since then, despite Giscard's imposition of a classically conservative program of tightening credit, raising some taxes and holding down budget expenditures, the French economy has gradually deteriorated.

Giscard sees inflation, currently running at about 15%, as the key threat. Polls show, however, that most Frenchmen worry more about job security. The President has argued that giving in to the strikers--the postal workers are demanding across-the-board wage increases of about $43 a month--would amount to capitulation in the struggle to control inflation. Millions of Frenchmen fear that allowing the strikes to continue could lead to a slump and inevitable layoffs.

Even some of the President's supporters worry that he is devoting more energy to matters of style--such as reviewing Armistice Day troops at the Arc de Triomphe on foot rather than by car, and approving a more solemn version of La Marseillaise (TIME, Nov. 18) --than to problems of substance. In fact, Giscard's "relaxed" presidency has produced some creative reforms in non-economic areas. Last week, for example, his Cabinet approved a new liberal abortion law, votes for 18-year-olds and an end to wiretapping.

Nonetheless, even Giscard's supporters admit that the government has been maladroit in handling the present strike crisis. During early negotiations with the postal workers, Pierre Lelong, Secretary of State for the Postal Service, called the task of sorting mail "an idiot's job." The unions are now insisting that negotiations be carried on by Premier Jacques Chirac, on the ground that Lelong is incompetent. After last week's police attack on the picketers, it appears that both sides were occupying entrenched positions.

Giscard has been spared a concerted attack in the National Assembly by the Socialists and Communists; both parties are at odds, each accusing the other of betraying the "union of the left" that was formed in 1972. Giscard, however, has been subject to sniping from Gaullists within the ranks of his parliamentary majority; they fear that he may be abandoning his predecessor's foreign policy of "grandeur." Another critic is former Foreign Minister Michel Jobert; he is currently touring the country, both promoting his bestselling autobiography and accusing Giscard of doing too little to control inflation.

On top of that, Giscard has been acutely embarrassed recently by what has become known as the "Stehlin affair." A retired commanding general of the French air force (1960-63) and vice president of the Chamber of Deputies, Paul Stehlin wrote a memorandum to Giscard suggesting that France's Mirage F1/M53 fighter was inferior to two new U.S. jets, General Dynamics' YF-16 and Northrop's YF-17. Most impartial aviation experts agree, but Stehlin made the point during a feverish competition over whether the Mirage or one of the U.S. planes will become the standard fighter for NATO'S forces.

Social Peace. Stehlin's assessment was perceived as a vicious stab at the national honor. Gaullist Party Leader Alexandre Sanguinetti howled that his remarks were "an aggression against the nation as a whole." As a result of the furor, Stehlin was forced to resign as vice president of the Assembly, and last week the government ordered him to retire from the air force reserve.

To placate the Gaullists, Giscard quickly denounced Stehlin for making public his appraisal of the fighters' merits and went out of his way to visit Colombey-les-deux-Eglises to mark the fourth anniversary of the death of le grand Charles. Clearly, Giscard is gambling that his traditional fiscal and credit program can halt inflation and at the same time preserve social peace, thereby allowing him more time to bring about the grand reforms--notably narrowing the income gaps between the rich and the poor--that he promised in his campaign. For the moment, Giscard has a seemingly solid majority in the Assembly and a favorable image with the voting public. But with the unions getting ever more restless and militant and with some grumbling on the back benches, the President will soon have to offer something more than a certain Kennedyesque charm and a revised national anthem if he hopes to win his bet.

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