Toward the Communist Alternative?

For a quarter-century, Italians have taken it for granted that whatever else happens, the ruling Christian Democrats would remain in control and the Communists would never share power. Both assumptions were valid enough in better times, but they are clearly suspect in a year in which the economy sinks further toward possible disaster every day. Last week, after a month without any government at all--and with no viable coalition in sight--even the most cynical of Italians were wondering just how many political crises it would take for the Christian Democrats to ask the Communists' help to save the country.

On any day, at almost any place along the boot of Italy, there is evidence of breakdown. In Rome, hundreds of police fought pitched battles with 600 left-wing students in a square in the picturesque Trastevere section, Rome's equivalent of the Left Bank. Outside Milan, arsonists, probably belonging to a leftist group called the Red Brigades, burned down the warehouses of a company associated with ITT, destroying $10 million worth of telephone equipment. Near Naples a mob of unemployed men, along with their families, blocked a main north-south railway line. Fifty people were arrested before the line was reopened. In Venice, trash collectors blockaded the Grand Canal for two hours with scores of garbage scows.

Short Time. Angered by the highest inflation rate of any country in the Common Market--nearly 25% in the past year--workers have staged almost daily strikes for higher wages. Since none of the unions have funds for a prolonged strike, the stoppages usually last for no more than half a day. "The workers may strike for four hours in the morning and then work four hours in the afternoon," says Socialist Labor Leader Piero Boni. "We have found that form of strike the most effective for disrupting production, and we always try to organize things so that the workers get their meals." This week the huge (7.6 million members) National Trade Union Confederation will carry things a step further by calling a general strike that could stop the whole country for half a day.

Inflation is coupled with rising unemployment. New government figures last week put the unemployed total at 800,000, or 6% of the total work force. Another 500,000 are on short time, earning less than a full salary. Some union leaders are now being accused by the rank and file of softness toward management. During a recent strike in Turin, Carlo Donat-Cattin, the staunchest labor supporter in the ruling Christian Democratic Party, was practically yanked off the platform when he spoke at a rally. "The workers were already fed up with high prices," says Salvatore Guzzardi, a Turin metal workers' steward. "Now they're frightened of losing their jobs too."

Italy's balance of payments deficit, after a brief improvement over the summer, has once again zoomed toward $1 billion a month. Italy's foreign indebtedness is now nearly $17 billion, and the latest loan of $2 billion from West Germany is supposed to be paid back in March. But the money has disappeared as fast as a "drop of water on a hot stove," according to outgoing Treasury Minister Emilio Colombo, and Italy is going to need even more loans in the next few months to stave off bankruptcy and pay for oil. Italy is more dependent on imported fuel than any other European country and has been especially hard hit by the rise in petroleum prices. Meanwhile, capital is fleeing the country; in October alone, $378 million was transferred from Italian banks to foreign ones.

A strong government might be able to take the stern measures that would restore confidence. Unfortunately, a strong government seems almost impossible with the present equation of Italian politics. A center-left coalition of Christian Democrats and Socialists, headed by former Premier Mariano Rumor, fell apart last month over what measures should be taken to deal with the emergency, and President Giovanni Leone has so far been unable to find anyone who can patch together another government. Amintore Fanfani, the secretary of the Christian Democrats and perhaps the strongest political figure in the country, tried and failed. Last week Leone asked Foreign Minister Aldo Moro, who has three times before served as Premier (1963-68), to see if he would have better luck.

Whether or not Moro succeeds, many moderate politicians are reluctantly coming to the conclusion that Italy's economic woes cannot be solved without the help of the Communists. The country's second-largest party, the Communists won 27% of the vote in the last election; through their control of the biggest unions, they are in a position to stop the enervating strikes. The Christian Democrats could seek a broadened mandate of their own in a new election, but they are afraid that the campaign would only split the country and that they might lose anyway.

Hoping for the breakthrough that might eventually put them in power, some Communist Party leaders, meanwhile, are quietly pressing the idea of power-sharing on their own. "Even today the Italian Parliament just doesn't work unless there is prior agreement between us and the Christian Democrats," says Giorgio Amendola, the Communists' No. 2 man. "The Christian Democrats would like to leave it that way, and we would be willing too--if it worked. But it doesn't. So what there could be is some more visible form of cooperation, such as regular consultations. We want to come out into the light. We're too big to come in by the servants' entrance." Even a few Communists seem nervous about sharing power and all of its responsibilities, leaving the opposition to Maoists and other extremists.

Greater Danger. While they recognize the logic in what is called by some "the dreaded choice," and by others "the historic compromise," most Christian Democrats see even greater danger with the Communists than without them. First of all, they believe, all foreign credit would dry up if the Communists shared power, pushing Italy irrevocably into bankruptcy. Second, they are afraid--as are many foreign observers--that a compromise with the Communists in Italy would lead to similar coalitions in other European countries, notably France, and would spell the doom of the Western alliance. But if a compromise with the Communists could get them out of their seemingly insoluble dilemma, many Italians would probably be willing to accept that risk, if not now at least some time in the future.

In the '40s, Washington helped mount an intensive and successful campaign to keep the Communists out of the government. Officials say that no such effort is being made now, and that the U.S. is counting on the Italians somehow to pull through without the Communists, as they have done before. Italians only wish that they could be so optimistic.

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