Coming Down the Stretch to Nov. 5

In the penultimate week of campaigning, struggling Republicans could discern scant hopes of avoiding serious defeat at the polls on Nov. 5. Their supporters were either apathetic or were deserting to the other side; their candidates lacked funds and ways to escape the crippling legacy of Watergate and the crushing issues of inflation, unemployment and the President's proposed 5% surtax. Said one presidential adviser: "All over the country there is an uneasiness, a feeling that a lot of problems are not being solved, and voters are taking it out on the party in power."

Anticipating Victory. On the other line of the ballot, Democrats confidently anticipated scoring the most overwhelming off-year victory since 1958. At present, 58 Senators, 248 Representatives and 32 Governors are Democrats. Even White House aides expect a net Republican loss of two or three Senate seats, at least 35 House seats and three or four statehouses. But Democratic strategists hope to do much better than that. They envision a net gain of perhaps six Senate seats, as many as 50 House seats and six governorships.

Despite the prevailing scent of Republican disaster, Gerald Ford continued doggedly to pursue a wearying campaign schedule that will have taken him to 15 states by Election Day. Along the way, his speeches have become increasingly partisan, while his crowds have remained sparse and unenthusiastic. Even some Republican candidates have avoided appearing with him, believing that association could cost them votes. But according to aides, Ford believes that he may be giving some help to at least a few candidates. More important, explains one adviser: "He doesn't want people saying he didn't give his last ounce of devotion to the cause."

On Tuesday, a day after thousands of cheering Mexicans had showered him with carnations during his get-acquainted meeting with Mexican President Luis Echeverria Alvarez, Ford flew to Oklahoma, which gave Richard Nixon 75% of its vote in 1972. Ford arrived in Oklahoma City at the same time that the Republican-oriented Daily Oklahoman published the results of a random survey of 2,900 voters, showing Republican Senator Henry Bellmon trailing Democratic Challenger Ed Edmondson by 13 points and Republican Gubernatorial Nominee James Inhofe lagging behind Democrat David Boren by 49 points.

Ford went first to a $500-a-plate Republican breakfast, where only 51 tickets had been sold. That night in Cleveland, his tepid audience at a $500-a-plate dinner totaled about 250, half what had been expected. Among the missing was Republican Gubernatorial Candidate James Rhodes, who opposes Ford's proposed surtax.

In his speeches, Ford argued that a Democratic landslide could produce a "legislative dictatorship" that might cause federal spending to "go out of sight." He further warned: "If we get the wrong kind of Congress, peace could be in jeopardy." Democratic National

Chairman Robert Strauss called Ford's words "irresponsible" and accused him --in an obvious exaggeration--of reverting to the abusive campaign tactics of Nixon and Spiro Agnew in 1970. Said Ford of his critics: "They may not have seen anything yet."

Ford's forays and rhetoric seemed unlikely to win Republicans many votes, as TIME correspondents in charge of political-campaign coverage reported last week. Their assessment of the election-eve situation in their regions:

THE EAST. New York Bureau Chief Marsh Clark is responsible for New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware:

This much seems clear in the mid-Atlantic states: it is open season on incumbents in general and Republicans in particular. From Buffalo to Baltimore, people are complaining about high prices and Ford's pardoning of Nixon. Local issues that might otherwise be important have been submerged.

Almost every candidate is trying to run against "the system." As a scion of Delaware's most famous family, Republican Representative Pierre S. du Pont IV has an annual income of about $350,000; yet he has endorsed the idea of raising taxes on the rich. Former U.S. Attorney General Ramsey Clark has refused contributions of more than $100 to his Senate campaign in New York (see following story).

Republicans who have tended to business, such as Pennsylvania's Senator

Richard Schweiker and Senator Charles Mathias of Maryland, have better than even chances of retaining their seats. But no matter how innocent the others may be of responsibility for Watergate and inflation, many of them will suffer because of the voters' sour mood.

NEW ENGLAND. Boston Bureau Chief Sandra Burton is responsible for the six New England states. Voters here have run out of steam. With few exceptions, the once vaunted "youth vote" is not turned on enough to even tune in on the TV news. Off the campuses, the mood of most voters, regardless of age or party, is similarly somnolent. Complains Massachusetts Democratic Chairman Charles Flaherty: "I can't even find a bumper sticker for any body." In normally Republican Thetford, Vt., Democrat Jacqueline Lucy led a successful effort to pass an Impeach Nixon resolution at the annual town meeting last March. Now she is having trouble recruiting volunteer workers for Democratic candidates, even though the party has its best chance ever to elect a Senator.

As elsewhere, morality is a big issue. In New Hampshire, Democrat John Durkin has constructed his Senate campaign around the acknowledged role of the Republican nominee, Representative Louis Wyman, in helping to ob tain an ambassadorship for a heavy contributor to Nixon's 1972 campaign.

In Connecticut, Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Robert Steele adopted as his slogan: "You and Steele can drive big money out of politics." But there should be relatively few new fac es in office after the election, in part because New Englanders seem not as anti-incumbent as voters are in other parts of the country.

THE SOUTH. Atlanta Bureau Chief James Bell is responsible for eleven Southern states, from Virginia to Texas.

Southerners have always suspected that dirty tricks were a way of life in politics, so Watergate was less shocking here than elsewhere. Nonetheless, the revelations about Nixon's methods and manner had an ultimately corrosive effect. Georgia Secretary of State Ben Fortson, a Democrat, said it best: "People are sick of politics. We're in such a state in this country that people blame the politicians for everything."

Even so, politicians here have not lacked money, unlike many politicians elsewhere. For example, Tennessee's gubernatorial primaries cost 15 candidates of both parties a total of $4,881,667. But relatively few voters turned out for the primaries. Similarly, many may stay away from the polls on Election Day. That will make it difficult for Republicans, no matter how much distance they have tried to put between themselves and Ford's economic package. Indeed, the only WIN button down here stands for "Wilbur is Naughty" and refers to Democratic Representative Mills' night life. However, after a decade of gains, the G.O.P. ought to lose less here than in other regions, which is a victory of sorts for Republicans in the year of Watergate.

THE MIDWEST. Chicago Bureau Chief Gregory Wierzynski is responsible for 15 states, from Ohio to Oklahoma.

The campaign has hardly stirred the cornstalks, but 1974 still may be a turning point for Midwestern politics. Because of population shifts and spreading industrialization, there has been a Democratic tide here since the mid-1960s. Now Watergate and the faltering economy have given Midwestern Democrats expectations of winning upwards of 15 House seats and five in the Senate, as well as significant inroads in state elections. The gains may signal the Midwest's switch from being a Republican stronghold to a two-party region, if not a happy hunting ground for Democrats.

Because of Watergate, many top-notch Republicans feared certain defeat and decided against challenging incumbent Democrats, and the polls show it. Minnesota Governor Wendell Anderson was recently running 48 points ahead of his second-string Republican opponent, while Ohio Democrat John Glenn had a 50-point margin in his Senate race. Watergate has also turned off large Republican contributors, like Insurance Millionaire W. Clement Stone. He gave $2 million to Nixon in 1972; so far this year, he has given Republican candidates in Illinois only $4,212.

THE WEST. Los Angeles Bureau Chief Richard Duncan is responsible for 13 states, from New Mexico to Montana and west to Alaska and Hawaii.

Western Republicans have approached the restive electorate rather gingerly this year. Rather than Watergate and inflation, they prefer to talk about local issues and question the competence of their hard-charging Democratic opponents. As a result, Republicans seem to be mustering a late surge of support, but it comes too late to affect more than marginal races.

Still, from the Rockies to the Pacific, the Democratic trend seems inexorable. In a recent poll in California, Democratic Senator Alan Cranston was 35 points ahead of Republican Rival H.L. Richardson. Traditionally Republican Arizona will probably elect Democrat Raul Castro as Governor and perhaps even a Democratic state senate. The Democratic sweep is likely to be blocked only in Alaska, where Governor William Egan is trailing Republican Challenger Jay Hammond, and Senator Mike Gravel shows only a slim lead over his Republican rival, C.R. Lewis, a state senator and member of the John Birch Society's advisory council.

Open campaigns have been the fashion, especially among Republicans, who are alert to the lessons of Watergate. Contributors at a recent G.O.P. cocktail party in San Diego dropped three and four-figure checks into a shallow dish by the door, then watched bemusedly as the host invited reporters to examine the checks.

The probable Democratic victory comes in the midst of voter disenchantment with both parties. Says Pollster Mervin Field: "All the evidence shows withdrawal by the voters, Democrats and Republicans in proportion. That works against the Republicans because they are a minority party and need a higher level of voter participation which in the past year they got." Apparently not this year. Unless something happens at the last minute to excite voters, turnouts at the polls are expected to be at record low levels, in the West as in other states.

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