Toward an Uncertain Future

Although Francisco Franco is 81 and in failing health, the announcement was a shock. He had entered a Madrid hospital for treatment of phlebitis* in his right leg. An hour later when workers poured into the streets for lunch, Franco's illness was the topic of conversation all across Spain.

The announcement in itself was without precedent. Spaniards had long been forbidden even to speculate publicly about the timing of el Caudillo's death. Although he was known to suffer from Parkinson's disease, so far as Spanish officialdom was concerned, the only times he had ever been indisposed were when he had a couple of teeth extracted and when he suffered a gunshot wound in the hand while hunting. Last week the government rushed out photographs showing the diminutive (5 ft. 3 in.) and frail general walking into the hospital without assistance, and doctors said his condition was not serious.

40 Years. Nonetheless, it threw into stark relief the uncertain future facing the country. Europe's oldest dictator, after almost 40 years of ironfisted rule, has no obvious successor. There were fears, however exaggerated, that his death could touch off the kind of partisan fighting that engulfed Spain during the Civil War when, as the youngest general in the army, he gained power by overthrowing Spain's republican government.

Throughout the week a procession of generals, admirals, ministers and family streamed to Franco's bedside at the modern medical center named for him in Madrid, presumably to show that el Caudillo was still in control. But behind the scenes there was obvious concern for maintaining stability. Cabinet ministers and high military officers met to consider emergency measures in case of Franco's death, and Spain's secret police and paramilitary Civil Guard were put on round-the-clock alert.

Suspicions that Franco's illness might be more serious than acknowledged grew when Premier Carlos Arias Navarro reportedly made preparations for Franco to name Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon y Borbon, 36, grandson of Spain's last King, as provisional chief of state. Under the constitution, the prince can take over in the event of Franco's ill health.

Franco chose the young Juan Carlos to be his figurehead successor mainly because he is docile and malleable. In the event of Franco's death, the real ruler--until Juan Carlos had "matured"--was to have been Vice Admiral Luis Carrero Blanco, Franco's conservative and like-minded crony who was named Premier last year. But the plan was destroyed when Basque terrorists assassinated Carrero Blanco last December. Though Franco frequently consults Juan Carlos, the prince has no influence on policy, and probably lacks the skill or the military support to hold the country together. Some cynics, in fact, have already nicknamed him "Juan Carlos the Brief."

Even before Franco's illness, Spain's old-guard right-wingers were already jittery over the April coup in neighboring Portugal. They feared that Spanish leftists would see the events there as a road map to bring about revolutionary changes at home. As a result the regime of Premier Arias has retreated from a policy of political moderation back to authoritarianism.

Last month Arias backed down on a promise to allow the formation of political "associations" (nascent parties), which have been banned throughout Franco's rule. The same day General Manuel Diez Alegria, the comparatively progressive chief of staff of the armed forces, was sacked. All during May, General Diez Alegria had regularly received a monocle in his mail--a pointed hint that he should emulate Portugal's Antonio de Spinola and liberate Spain. To foreclose the possibility he was replaced by the more reliable General Carlos Fernandez Vallespin.

Although the army is the only Spanish institution strong enough to perpetuate Franco's power, it lacks a strong and compelling leader. Franco has systematically cashiered military upstarts who showed signs of building a popular following, and there are no signs of political dissension in the rank and file. Civilian moderates have held no real power in the government since the relatively liberal Opus Dei technocrats were booted out of the Cabinet after Carrero Blanco's assassination.

Bad Day. While Franco lives, most Spaniards see no likelihood of political change. But no one can be sure how long that will be. On "good days," he keeps up a reasonable schedule, but at other times he may be completely senile. When Vice President Gerald Ford arrived in Madrid last December, Franco was in such poor shape that it was difficult to arrange a protocol visit. Spanish television recently had to cancel a film that was to have shown the dictator fishing. It was a bad day, and Franco had to be propped up by two aides.

"Until now, everyone seemed to think that Franco would be eternal," said one of Spain's leading editors last week. "Now there is a lot of looking into the future. The trouble is that all you see is a giant vacuum. Like any good dictator, Franco has made sure there is no successor." That failing could some day mean grave trouble for Spain.

* The same ailment that President Nixon suffered from during his Middle East trip. An inflammation of a vein, it can be fatal if a blood clot breaks loose and travels to the lungs or brain.

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