Most Likely to Succeed

The sequence was all too familiar. First there was the announcement from the Elysee Palace that the President was not well. Then came the news that yet another dinner, this time for the diplomatic corps, was being canceled and another meeting was being postponed, a crucial one scheduled for this week with West German Chancellor Willy Brandt. Finally, despite the insistence of his aides that Georges Pompidou was not seriously ill,* popular suspicion that he would resign and plunge France into an electoral campaign gained fresh ground.

The latest uncertainty comes at a time when French foreign policies are under consistent attack abroad. The Bonn meeting with Brandt, which has now been postponed until late April or early May, was regarded as especially urgent in view of the Common Market's increasing disarray and the growing rift in the Atlantic Alliance. At home, Pompidou's government is beset by alarming inflation, aggravated by the oil crisis, and the threat of widespread labor unrest.

Most observers assume that Pompidou will not remain in office until his seven-year term ends in 1976. This assumption inevitably has fueled speculation about his successor in the Elysee. More than that, it has put the contenders in the peculiar situation of having to jockey for position without appearing eager to take advantage of the President's illness. So far, Pompidou has anointed no one to succeed him. But the odds are overwhelming that the next man to wear the medal and sash of the President de la Republique will be one of three contenders:

VALERY GISCARD D'ESTAING, 48, Finance Minister off and on for nine years, has directed France's fortunes with a finesse that, despite the current troubles, has not only endeared him to the patronat--the French business establishment--but at the same time won him the respect of the man in the bistro. An urbane and brilliant economist, he is the only presidential contender who currently holds national office. That helps Giscard by giving him regular public exposure, but it also thrusts him into the firing line on problems such as unemployment (only 1.9% last year but increasing) and inflation (currently about 13% a year). As a result, he has dipped slightly in recent polls, although French voters still rate him highest (58%) among politicians with the "greatest future."

Though he is not formally a Gaullist, Giscard is reportedly also rated "most likely to succeed" by Pompidou himself. The French President respects Giscard's brains and owes his own successful 1969 bid for the presidency to the support of Giscard's Independent Republicans, a small swing party (62 seats in the 487-member National Assembly) that almost always lines up with Pompidou's U.D.R. (Democratic Union for the Republic). But old-line Gaullists have not forgiven Giscard for urging a non vote in the 1969 referendum that forced De Gaulle to resign. Thus whenever Giscard seems to be flying too high, prominent Gaullists like former Premier Michel Debre start shooting at him. So, occasionally, does Pompidou; there are reports that the President wrote in the margin of Giscard's last anti-inflation program, "Not good enough."

JACQUES CHABAN-DELMAS, 59, is a former general in the French Resistance whose easy charm and dashing self-confidence have injected a Kennedyesque touch of glamour into Gaullist politics. Mayor of Bordeaux since 1947, Chaban -- the Resistance code name that he formally adopted after the war -- is also a former Premier. The perfect Gaullist? Not quite. For one thing, Chaban advocates widespread reform ("the new society," he calls it), ranging from governmental decentralization to increased social security benefits -- policies that are anathema to some Gaullist fundamentalists who want to hold down government spending. Moreover, his reputation is still clouded by a whiff of scandal: in July 1972, Pompidou ousted him as Premier after it became known that he had taken advantage of legal loopholes and paid no income taxes on his $30,000 salary in the years from 1966 to 1969.

Pompidou makes no secret of his disdain for his former Premier. "Perhaps I can't elect the candidate of my choice," he reflected recently, "but I can defeat whom I don't want" -- meaning Chaban. Chaban, however, has picked up other important support, notably from Debre, who has endorsed him for President. As a prelude to an eventual campaign for president, Chaban has assembled a brain trust of advisers and thinkers, but so far he is deliberately keeping a low profile. Says an aide: "Why should he start taking a position on every issue that pops up? He can only lose."

FRANC,OIS MITTERRAND, 57, also a former Resistance leader, is France's foremost Socialist and a formidable vote getter. From 1946 to 1958 he held eleven Cabinet posts in various pre-Gaullist governments, and he won an extraordinary 45% of the popular vote against Charles de Gaulle in the 1965 presidential election. A shrewd and brilliant tactician, he led his rejuvenated party last year into a pow erful coalition with his old foes, the Communists, to give the Gaullists their strongest challenge yet. While the U.D.R. hung on to its majority in the Assembly, the leftist union finished in a dead heat with the Gaullists (46%) in the popular vote.

In recent months, Mitterrand has held well-publicized meetings with West Germany's Willy Brandt and Egypt's Anwar Sadat, and wooed the support of workers with promises of tax reforms, better health care and higher pensions. But his uneasy union with the Communists, which assures him 20% of the vote, also tends to alienate middle-class voters who might otherwise be in the mood for a change.

* Some experts believe that France's President may be suffering from multiple myeloma, a debilitating disease of the bone marrow. His puffy features are probably a side effect of cortisone treatments.

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