Decline in the SATs

In New York City last week the College Entrance Examination Board issued a profile of the 1,000,000 American 1973 high school seniors who took its Scholastic Aptitude Tests (SAT). The profile revealed many noteworthy facts (girls got higher average scores, for example, yet had less ambitious college plans than boys). But one seemingly ominous result attracted the most attention: the mean SAT scores had declined for the tenth year in a row. The biggest drop was in this year's verbal scores, from a mean of 450 in 1971-72 to 443 in 1972-73. That compared to a verbal mean of 478 in 1962-63.

In previous years the standard explanation for the slipping SAT scores has been that a larger and less selective group of students has been taking the tests. But in the past five years, as the number of students going to college has leveled off, the number taking the test has also stabilized, making this explanation no longer valid. Could it be, as many parents fear, that American schools just are not doing as good a job of developing verbal and mathematical skills as they used to do? Or are American kids simply getting dumber?

Declining Scores

1962-1963 Verbal 478 Mathematical 502

1963-1964 Verbal 475 Mathematical 498

1964-1965 Verbal 473 Mathematical 496

1965-1966 Verbal 471 Mathematical 495

1966-1967 Verbal 467 Mathematical 495

1967-1968 Verbal 466 Mathematical 494

1968-1969 Verbal 462 Mathematical 491

1969-1970 Verbal 460 Mathematical 488

1970-1971 Verbal 454 Mathematical 487

1971-1972 Verbal 450 Mathematical 482

1972-1973 Verbal 443 Mathematical 481

Experts at the College Board and at Educational Testing Service, which prepares and scores the tests under contract to the board, were quick to dampen the gloomy speculation. While some agree that American schools have their faults, they point out that the test results do not necessarily indicate those failings. ETS research also suggests that, if anything, young Americans have been getting slightly brighter over the years. Then what could be causing the drop in scores? William H. Angoff, executive director of College Board programs at ETS, admits that no one can tell for sure. For one thing, because SATS are not compulsory (only about a third of high school seniors take them), the test group varies from year to year and is "a statistician's nightmare." However, ETS and the board are considering more than a dozen factors that may be causing the decline. One possibility: spiraling tuition fees and a growing disaffection for higher education may be discouraging able and thus high-scoring students from applying to colleges that require SATS. If true, this would mean that many of the better students no longer take the tests, thus lowering the mean SAT scores.

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