A Defeat for Detente

Trade was going to open the way toward conciliation with Russia. More than a year ago, President Nixon negotiated a major new agreement designed to step up commerce between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The President pledged, subject to congressional approval, to confer most-favored-nation status on the U.S.S.R., giving it the same trade position as almost all other countries and eliminating the discriminatory tariffs that Congress imposed on certain Communist states in 1951. "M.F.N." was to be a cornerstone of new Soviet-American economic relations and thus a cornerstone of detente itself.

But the Administration failed to clear M.F.N. in advance with Congress, where there was growing concern over the Soviet Union's restrictions on Jewish emigration. While this is obviously an internal Soviet matter, a combination of genuine humanitarianism, old cold war reflexes and a high regard for Jewish votes and political contributions combined into an extraordinary movement to block M.F.N. Last week the House handed the Administration a major defeat on detente. In passing the much-needed Trade Reform Bill, the House, by an overwhelming vote of 298 to 106, tacked on an amendment prohibiting M.F.N. to any country that denies its people the right to emigrate freely. Worse from the Administration's point of view, the House passed a similar amendment that denies U.S. Government-supported export credits to countries that do not have free emigration. These moves will hit many Communist countries.

Export Crimp. The Soviet reaction to the House action was immediate and angry. The news agency Tass called the amendments "interference in Soviet affairs" and the work of "cold war advocates," which was "at variance with detente." Certainly the amendments do threaten to impede the growth of U.S.Soviet trade. Administration officials have estimated that, by substantially reducing tariffs on such Soviet products as vodka and motorcycles, M.F.N. might increase Soviet exports to the U.S. by $10 million to $25 million a year -a considerable addition to Soviet shipments to the U.S., which in 1972 were only $95.5 million. But restrictions on credit assistance could have a much more serious economic impact. This year the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. has financed $250 million in American shipments to the Soviet Union. Cutting off the flow of credit would crimp industrial exports to the Russians and upset plans for the joint exploitation of Siberian gas and other Soviet resources.

Secretary of State Henry Kissinger led the fight within the Administration to delay passage of the Trade Reform Bill as long as the amendments were attached. Kissinger has argued that placing these kinds of conditions on Soviet trade amounts to an attempt to "transform the domestic structure" of the Soviet Union. He is worried that the amendments could hurt the chances of Soviet cooperation in maintaining the fragile cease-fire in the Middle East, and he feels that secret diplomacy will be more effective than public pressure in persuading the Soviets to liberalize their emigration policies. Either because of the diplomacy or the pressure--or both-- emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union has recently been running about 3,500 a month.

Despite Kissinger's apprehensions, the Administration wanted its Trade Reform Bill so much that it supported passage. The bill grants unprecedented authority to the President to bargain with foreign leaders for reciprocal deals to free trade in general. Treasury Secretary George Shultz led a powerful group of policymakers who argued that the bill was crucial to improving the U.S.'s troubled economic relations with Western Europe and Japan.

Energy Backlash. The full bill, as passed by the House, empowers the President to reduce tariffs--all the way down to zero in some cases--in return for similar concessions from foreign governments. In addition, the President would get retaliatory powers to raise tariffs and to clamp temporary surcharges or quotas on imports that he thinks harm the U.S. balance of payments or endanger domestic industries.

The bill, however, has yet to pass in the Senate, where there are serious reservations both about the President's new powers and the anti-detente provisions. Washington's powerful Senator Henry M. Jackson has led the crusade to ban M.F.N. for the Soviets unless they allow more emigration. The energy crisis could create a backlash against the Israelis and diminish support for the dangerous Jackson amendment in the Senate. But, as the overwhelming House vote showed, so far no such diminution is evident.

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