The Meanest Winter of the Century

Though the energy crisis will cause disruptions in the lives of most Americans, none will be hit as savagely as New Englanders. From the rugged woodlands of northern Maine to the gilded suburbs of southern Connecticut, the region faces what could be its meanest winter of the century. Devastating shortages of oil are likely to bring widespread factory shutdowns, soaring unemployment, electricity blackouts and genuine physical hardship. Echoing the view of many worried New England officials, John Drew, Massachusetts' energy adviser, says: "We are sitting on top of a disaster."

New England's painful vulnerability is largely an unalterable matter of geography. Possessing no major fuel resources of its own, and located at the extreme end of the supply lines from U.S. oil and gas wells in the South and Southwest, the region has had to buy fuel wherever it could be found. In the past, an abundant and cheap source has been foreign oil, which could easily be unloaded from tankers at the region's numerous ports. Thus New England has become extraordinarily dependent on foreign petroleum to generate its electricity, run its factories and heat its homes. Fully 90% of the region's energy needs are supplied by oil, v. a national average of 44% and about half of the oil is imported from refineries in Europe and the Caribbean, which draw much of their crude from the Middle East. The Arab nations' ban on oil shipments to the U.S. will reduce petroleum supplies about 18% for the whole nation --but in New England the shortfall could reach 30% or 40%.

Most frightening is the rapid shrinkage in stocks of heavy No. 6 "residual" oil, which is widely used to power electric generators and factory machinery.

Virtually all of the region's residual oil is imported from Europe, but with the ' slowing of the flow of Arab oil to the Continent, supplies from this source have been drastically diminished. John Buckley, vice president of Northeast Petroleum Corp., a Chelsea, Mass., wholesaler, believes that "a shortage of 50% in residual-oil supplies is quite possible by early next year."

To avoid utter chaos, many electric utilities are beginning to turn to coal.

Yet only about 10% will be able to complete the switchover from oil by February. Meanwhile, most utilities have reduced electric power by 5% between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. and are now working on plans for rotating blackouts to save fuel. That will increase the risk of crime and accidents, including fires from candles and oil lamps.

New Englanders will also have to struggle through the region's frigid winter temperatures with about a quarter less heating oil than normal. So many people are using woodburning fireplaces that top-hatted chimney sweeps are getting more business than they can handle. Fearful that some homes might run out of fuel entirely, Maine's Civil Defense Authority is establishing shelters in armories, high schools and grange halls, where residents can set up temporary living quarters. Trailer parks in New Hampshire, which house thousands of low income residents, are all but out of kerosene for space heaters. Vermont's Public Service Board Chairman William Gilbert worries that fuel supplies in his state could be halved and warns: "We could be in a save-the-women-and-children-first situation."

The energy crisis will deal a numbing blow to the region's economy, which has already been enfeebled by the loss of such traditional industries as textiles, apparel and leather and the failure of the high-technology industries that cluster along Route 128 outside Boston to recover from the 1970 recession. Economist Jack Rothwell of Boston's New England Merchants National Bank predicts: "This region is going to be hit hard, and a recession is almost inevitable." The Nixon Administration forecasts that nationwide unemployment will peak at 6% in 1974, but Economist David Pinsky of the University of Connecticut predicts that New England's jobless rate will climb to 9% next year.

Hand-to-Mouth. Signs of trouble already are proliferating. Because of the ban on Sunday sales of gasoline and the spreading general scarcities, the New Hampshire Ski Operators Association estimates that about 10,000 jobs will go unfilled and $200 million in revenues will be lost in their state alone. Construction of factories, apartments and other buildings in Massachusetts could halt because of the shortage of propane used to "cure" concrete in winter. Fishing fleets in New Bedford, Gloucester and other ports in Massachusetts are already operating on hand-to-mouth diesel fuel allotments from the state.

New England's only hope of avoiding the worst of the onrushing energy crunch lies in swift federal action to funnel more fuel to the area from less threatened states. Many New Englanders complain bitterly that such a program could be in operation now if the Administration had not dawdled for months earlier this year in adopting a mandatory fuel allocation program. Says Representative Torbert MacDonald, a Massachusetts Democrat: "Nixon has been so screwed up saving his own skin that the real needs of the country get no attention or leadership."

The Administration now has an allocation program, and a newly created Office of Petroleum Allocation to run it. But the OPA is undermanned, under-experienced and, as one official concedes, "a mass of confusion." Administration officials are only now getting around to de-mothballing tankers to get oil to the region. Even if this program is completed swiftly, the Interior Department, which is responsible for compiling energy statistics, has only the most general idea of how much fuel New England will need. Precise figures, its specialists say, will take a month to assemble--and by then it may be too late to spare the region's inhabitants a winter of unrelieved misery.

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