The Democrats Pre-Empt the Middle

Though last week's elections were by and large a Democratic sweep, the victories were not clearly a Watergate windfall. Democrats won in a number of races because the Democratic Party was simply recovering its normal strength among the electorate after the McGovern debacle of 1972. The party picked up the governorship in New Jersey and took control of both houses of the state legislature. Democratic mayors were elected in New York, Minneapolis and Louisville, and black Democrats took over city hall in Detroit, Raleigh, N.C., and Dayton. Democrats swept municipal elections in Connecticut and Kentucky.

In almost every race, local issues and the personalities of the candidates caught the prime attention of the voters. Watergate generally was a secondary, though pervasive issue. More significant in many races was the simple fact that registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans.

Ability to Govern. "Watergate is one narrow issue," declared Robert Strauss, Democratic National Party Chairman. "I think people are more disturbed about leadership, about the ability to govern. There was some fallout from Watergate, but it isn't a panacea. I don't see any national significance."

Watergate was doubtless on the minds of voters who gave Democratic former Judge Brendan T. Byrne a landslide victory over Republican Representative Charles W. Sandman Jr. in the New Jersey gubernatorial election. But then there had been considerable scandal closer to home: in the past three years, 78 public officeholders have been indicted by federal grand juries in New Jersey. Sandman, moreover, stood at the far right of the party and admitted: "Watergate didn't help us, Vice President Agnew didn't help us. But I blame nobody but myself. It could be that [the party] didn't choose a better candidate in June."

In the Virginia gubernatorial race, Democrat-turned-independent Henry Howell made a last-ditch effort to pin the Watergate label on Democrat-turned-Republican Mills E. Godwin. The G.O.P. candidate fought back by stressing the separation of party from White House, and by not bringing President Nixon or any other Republican bigwig into the state. "Watergate was a contrast to the integrity and credibility of our state government here," said Godwin. "This was a plus for me, offsetting the negative factors of Watergate."

But Watergate seemed to be a decisive factor in Philadelphia, where a notable Republican incumbent, District Attorney Arlen Spector, 43, was defeated by a Democratic virtual unknown, Attorney F. Emmett Fitzpatrick, 43. A popular campaigner who was slated for higher office, Spector had the backing of Philadelphia's Democratic Mayor Frank Rizzo. Both had been ardent supporters of Nixon, and this became a Fitzpatrick asset. On Election Day, Republicans did not get out enough of the vote, while the Democratic machine did its traditional duty; even its entire slate of 39 Court of Common Pleas judgeships was elected. "Watergate had a hell of a lot to do with our defeat," complained Philadelphia G.O.P. Chairman William Devlin. "People stayed home because they're ashamed of the President."

As predicted, Watergate turned people off politics in some areas. While the Virginia gubernatorial race brought out a record number of voters, a smaller number than usual came to the polls in Philadelphia, Miami, Houston and Cleveland. Responding to the chastened, not to say sullen, mood of the electorate, Democratic candidates did not offer extravagant promises or programs. Trying to pick up independent and Republican votes, they steered clear of McGovern-like positions and took Chairman Strauss's advice: "We've got to put back the traditional Democratic strength and pre-empt the middle ground."

Too Complex. Voters were suspicious of grandiose projects proposed by politicians. They turned down California Governor Ronald Reagan's constitutional amendment that would have eventually held state expenditures to 7% of California's total personal income. The 4,500-word initiative was too complex to be understood easily, and its opponents charged that its main effect would be to drive up local property taxes. Reagan's critics regarded the amendment's defeat as a blow to his presidential hopes in 1976. In New York, Governor Nelson Rockefeller's ambitious $3.5 billion transportation bond issue, which would have provided more funds for mass transit than for highways, was also defeated. The voters were not in any mood, either, to raise the salaries of the politicians. They said a resounding "no" to pay increases for public officials in Washington, Rhode Island and Texas.

The election indicated that the Watergate stain had seeped across the U.S., tarnishing to varying degrees Republican candidates. But it had not generally proved fatal to their chances, nor had it so preoccupied voters that other important issues were ignored.

For a detailed look at the races for Governor and mayor, see the following stories.

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