Sino-Soviet Stalemate

The Soviet official washed down a slice of spiced duck with a slug of mao-tai at the 24th yearly National Day* celebration in the Chinese embassy in Moscow last week and proclaimed: "I am still optimistic." He was referring to the prospects of a break in the marathon dispute between the two Communist giants, but his hope must have been fed by the convivial atmosphere. In fact, signs of a Sino-Soviet thaw are about as scarce as palm trees in Peking or Moscow.

In its Oct. 1 editorial, Pravda heaped abuse on the Peking leadership, charging Mao Tse-tung with waging a "frantic struggle against the socialist countries." At a speech in Tashkent two weeks ago, Soviet Party Leader Leonid Brezhnev complained that China had ignored several Soviet offers of a non-aggression pact, the latest made last June. Said Brezhnev: "It is characteristic that the leaders of the People's Republic of China, who scream throughout the world about some Soviet threat supposedly hanging over them, didn't even bother to reply to this concrete proposal of the Soviet Union."

Hoax and Fraud. The Chinese, in turn, celebrated their birthday with a few good licks at the Russians. The People's Daily warned the Chinese to be on guard against surprise attacks by social imperialism, a pet designation for Russian policy. As for Brezhnev's peace offer, the Chinese dismissed it as "a hoax and a fraud." They told visiting British Journalist Neville Maxwell that they and not the Russians had taken the first steps toward trying to resolve the tense confrontation that exists along their long border with the Soviet Union.

Polemics aside, the Chinese these days are on the diplomatic defensive. Fearful of being left to face Soviet military might alone, they have been strenuously attempting to head off detente between the Soviet Union and the West. In fact, their fears of the Soviets have put them in the peculiar position of practically giving their endorsement to Western military strength. Thus when French President Pompidou was in China recently, the Chinese bombarded him with warnings against becoming complacent about Soviet armed might, implicitly supporting France's atomic force. Equally close attention has been paid to rallying support in the developing world. At the conference of non-aligned nations in Algiers, the Chinese went to great lengths to portray the Soviet Union as a "dangerous friend." While the diplomatic battle rages on, the most immediate danger still lies along their common 4,000-mile border. The military face-off on the desolate frontier pits the two largest land armies in the world against each other, the more potent of them clearly the offensively geared Soviet force. Though a Soviet strike against China presently is unlikely, the possibility remains a chief source of anxiety for Peking's leaders.

Despite the potential explosiveness of the situation, four years of negotiations over disputed border territories have produced no results. Meanwhile, the Russians seem to be pinning their hopes on what Soviet commentators refer to as "healthy forces" in China, meaning a moderate pro-Soviet clique that could take power after Mao has gone. That is at best a long-range hope. For Mao, however, there are more immediate advantages to be gained from the conflict. He has often used the threat of a foreign enemy to rally support for his own policies while isolating his domestic opposition. Though no Confucianist, he obviously appreciates the sage's saying: "Without the menace of foreign aggression, a country is doomed."

* On Oct. 1, 1949, Mao Tse-tung proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China.

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