Parading Power

Nguyen Van Thieu has long believed in dealing with the Communists primarily with guns. Last week, only a few days after Henry Kissinger and North Viet Nam's Le Duc Tho signed in Paris what might be called Cease-Fire II, Thieu gave a showy display of that belief. In the annual South Vietnamese celebration of power known as Armed Forces Day, jet fighters whistled overhead while tanks, self-propelled artillery and armed amphibious vehicles thundered past the reviewing stands on Saigon's Tran Hung Dao Boulevard. Twenty thousand men--the equivalent of two divisions--marched in the parade. Security was tight: the general public was kept well back from the scene. Thieu and his carefully screened guests watched from the reviewing stands. Cost of the display: about $320,000, including $40,000 for fireworks set off after nightfall.

In a tough speech tailored for the occasion, Thieu charged that despite the new agreement, the Communists "have continued to violate the cease-fire even more seriously. The violations show that the Communists do not advocate peaceful means. They have never thought of halting their aggression."

Saigon statisticians claimed that at least 821 enemy troops had been killed in action in the few days since Cease-Fire II had been signed, while ARVN losses totaled 218. By the Saigon command's own admission, however, most contacts in recent days have amounted only to mortar and rocket exchanges. What fighting has occurred has been limited to the Chuong Thien province in the Mekong Delta and Kontum in the Central Highlands. In the northerly I Corps area, virtually no combat has been reported. Said a Western diplomat: "The combat statistics show that incidents are only a fifth of what they were after the January ceasefire. There is a far lower threshold of violence."

Explanations for the comparative tranquillity vary. One Western diplomat argues that the Communists feel that they won little in their land-grab attempts after the January truce. Another believes that the Communists are now concentrating on building up their infrastructure in areas they already hold. He adds that Saigon "has achieved an equilibrium it can live with. The main arteries are open, the bulk of the population is within the government fold." But it is still too early to tell whether Cease-Fire II will really take permanent hold.

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