Disarray in the Old Dominion

You can't tell the players without a scorecard in Virginia these days. Party labels, loyalties and leaders are scrambled beyond the worst imaginings of old Harry F. Byrd Sr., who for much of his life ran Virginia politics like a military drill.

It is odd enough that at the moment the commonwealth has a Republican Governor, an Independent Lieutenant Governor, and a Democratic attorney general. But consider that when voters go to the polls this November, they will elect as Governor one of two well-known, longtime Democrats--neither of whom is running as a Democrat. Two weeks ago one was given the Republican nomination and the other elected to run as an Independent. Byrd's once invincible Democratic Party gave up and will field no candidate for the office.

Republican Governor Linwood Holton, 50, who by law cannot succeed himself, has been notably moderate on the issue of race (his own children attend desegregated public schools), much to the dismay of conservative Democrats who in 1969 helped make him the first Republican Governor in the commonwealth since Reconstruction. But this year those same conservative Democrats asked Holton to support as his replacement former Democratic Governor Mills E. Godwin Jr., 58, who defeated Holton in 1965 and is now at blistering odds with the McGovern leftists who have seized his former party. Holton agreed because there were no promising Republican candidates. Godwin, who has been referring to Republicans as "you people" and the party as "your party," more or less joined their ranks when he finally managed in his acceptance speech to describe himself to the G.O.P. convention delegates as "one of you."

Democrats, who grew fratricidal with the collapse of the Byrd machine (Byrd Sr. died in 1966, and in 1970 his son won re-election to the U.S. Senate as an Independent), have redoubled their bloodletting since the resounding McGovern defeat. McGovernites now control an estimated 60-70% of the party's positions in Virginia. This year's gubernatorial candidate could have been, with only a nod of his head, Lieutenant Governor Henry Howell, 52, a friend of the new McGovern forces and a shrewd populist with a liberal stance on race and broad support from organized labor. But Howell begged off on the reasonable grounds that nobody labeled a Democrat could win in Virginia in 1973, and on June 8 he filed as an Independent candidate.

He may be right. Virginians not only voted 69% for Nixon in 1972, but also replaced popular moderate Democratic Senator William B. Spong Jr. with conservative Republican William L. Scott, leaving the congressional delegation with eight Republicans, three Democrats and one Independent.

Taking the maverick road is consistent with Howell's past. Like Godwin, Howell is a graduate of William and Mary College and the University of Virginia Law School. Unlike him, however, he has long been a party rebel. In the 1969 Democratic gubernatorial primary he forced Byrd-machine

Candidate William C. Battle into a run-off--the first ever for the Byrd machine --and so split the party that the general election was thrown to Republican Holton. When the Lieutenant Governor's office fell vacant in 1971, Howell ran as an Independent and defeated both major party candidates, polling 40% of the vote.

Howell has enviable strength in the black community (he supports busing and the redistricting of the Richmond school system to achieve racial balance), and a liberal sprinkling of small businessmen and young professionals also support him. Howell is a barn-burning orator with a readily understandable campaign slogan: "Keep the big boys honest."

Tough Politics. With only an estimated 20% of the voters undecided, Virginia's topsy-turvy political arena may ultimately favor Godwin, who has 25 years as a Democratic stalwart behind him and invaluable schooling as a loyalist in tough Byrd machine politics.

A former FBI agent with a strong record as Governor, Godwin's biggest obstacle now that he has switched parties is to win over the Republicans who worked against him in 1965. While counting on big-business support, Godwin is not writing off the blue-collar vote. Though Godwin sponsored the fiercely unpopular state sales tax on food and non-prescription drugs, in the face of Howell's opposition he says he is now willing to substitute some other source of revenue. Godwin concedes Howell may carry most of the black and organized-labor vote, but predicts Howell's leftist image will hurt in traditionally conservative Virginia. In his new Republican voice, Godwin is still talking Byrd language. "I don't want to see the direction reversed," he says. "Continuity and predictability have been [Virginia's] prime assets."

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