Will Compromise Mean Coexistence?

After a fortnight at the brink of civil war, Lebanon last week appeared to be at the brink of peace, at least for a time. After several days of furious negotiations, the Lebanese government and the Palestinian guerrillas announced that they had reached "identical viewpoints" on how to settle the bloody, brutal conflict that left more than 350 dead and 700 wounded.

From all the evidence, the still secret agreement was a coexistence pact with compromises made by both sides.

In exchange for stricter discipline in the ranks, the government will allow the fedayeen to keep control of the refugee camps, which the guerrillas desperately need if they are to develop as a forceful Palestinian political entity.

At the same time, the fedayeen agreed to confine uniformed and armed members to the camps and other designated areas, and allow Lebanese police to share guard posts at the camps.

In addition, both sides agreed to release their prisoners--which for the government means 350 fedayeen captured during the fighting.

While the talks went on, Beirut remained under martial law. At the end of the dusk-to-dawn curfew, traffic snarled into monster tangles at checkpoints, as soldiers scanned cardboard lists of suspect license numbers. Crowds were forbidden to gather, and even the pinball parlors (the latest craze in Beirut) were closed. In a government security drive, scores of people were arrested. The government also deported hundreds of foreigners, mostly Syrians, who lacked residence permits.

Last week's agreement between the Palestinians and the government came none too soon for Lebanon, which has been economically paralyzed by the strife. But the uneasy compromise left a lot unsettled. President Suleiman Franjieh is expected to form a new government soon, which will respect Lebanon's constitutional division of power between the Christians, the Shia and the Sunni Moslems. Pressure from pro-Palestinian Moslems appeared to be an important factor in forcing Franjieh to settle with the guerrillas. Also instrumental was Leftist Leader Kamal Jumblatt, who stands to gain an important post in the new government, probably as Interior Minister.

Show of Unity. How long the settlement might last was another question. The fact that the various fedayeen organizations--including the extremist Popular Democratic Front--made an uncharacteristic show of unity during the negotiations suggests that the relatively moderate and conciliatory views of Al-Fatah Leader Yasser Arafat may be less heeded in the future. Some officers of the frustrated 16,000-man Lebanese army, which suffered surprisingly heavy losses, believe that the government cost them casualties by refusing to authorize all-out assaults. "If it starts again, there'll be no holding some of my units," warned one senior officer.

The final and potentially most worrisome problem was Jerusalem's strategy. The Israelis were unmistakably delighted to see the Lebanese army attempting to crack down on the guerrillas. As of last week, the bulk of the Lebanese army was concentrated near the refugee camps around Beirut, which meant that the fedayeen bases in the southeast were virtually unguarded. If the Israelis chose at this moment to cross the border and punish the guerrillas once more, Lebanon would clearly be right back at the brink of war.

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