The New Thieu

For months he had been a solitary, even hostile figure. He raged privately at the Kissinger negotiations when they were under way; he jeered publicly after the Paris agreement was finally signed, declaring that "there is no ceasefire at all." But lately South Viet Nam's President Nguyen Van Thieu has been sounding a different note. By the time he arrives this week in San Clemente, Calif., to begin a six-day visit to the U.S., the man who has personally benefited most from a decade of American involvement in Indochina will have completed a remarkable transformation from a sore loser into a happy, confident winner.

On the eve of Thieu's trip, Saigon issued a flurry of announcements designed to show that the regime no longer felt itself on the defensive. Thieu signed an amnesty order freeing 967 political prisoners, among them Truong Dinh Dzu, who ran a strong second to Thieu in the 1967 election. Dzu had been jailed shortly thereafter for suggesting what Thieu is doing now: negotiating with the Communists. The next to be amnestied were Saigon's bars and nightclubs, which were allowed to reopen after having been closed since last May by Thieu as an austerity measure. Then, at a rally of 2,000 members of his fledgling Democracy Party in a downtown Saigon theater, Thieu invited his opponents to "organize their own opposition party"--which is in fact almost impossible under a restrictive new election law that Thieu decreed last December.

Thieu himself was out and around more last week than he had been in months. He flew most of his government aides--and a good part of the Saigon diplomatic corps--down to Can Tho, a city deep in the Mekong Delta, for what he called a "farmer's day" outing that was as heavy on bands, pretty girls, prize pigs and political corn as an Iowa state fair. When a 40-man bicycle race was about to start, Thieu expropriated one bike to take a turn through the crowd. "He leads a merry pace," Foreign Minister Tran Van Lam explained to his guests.

On the day before the withdrawal of the last U.S. troops, Thieu appeared near the U.S. headquarters to lay the cornerstone for a memorial to the 46,000 Americans killed in the war. "Many times in this century the United States has sent her sons across the oceans to help oppose aggression," Thieu said, "but nowhere was their valiant participation so long and so trying as in Viet Nam. The Vietnamese people will never forget."

Thieu's new confidence is not baseless. If the Paris agreement has not ended the fighting, it has also not led to the political upheavals that many observers in both Washington and Saigon feared might soon overwhelm Thieu. Saigon's 1,100,000-man military machine, the basis of Thieu's strength, has not collapsed; indeed, ARVN desertions have declined since the ceasefire. Thieu is also cheered by the unexpected ease with which his forces have retaken almost all of the 400 villages that were seized by the Communists in the confusion following the Jan. 23 initialing of the peace agreement.

Now that Saigon claims control of 90% of South Viet Nam's population, it is pressing for the national elections required by the truce agreement to be held as early as possible. But after two weeks of tortuous arguments in a 17th century chateau near Paris, Thieu's negotiators and the Communists have not been able to agree even on an agenda for talks on how to set up the so-called National Council of Reconciliation and Concord that is supposed to organize the elections. A number of top U.S. officials now doubt that the vaunted elections will ever be held.

There is another reason for the emergence of the new, statesmanlike Thieu. The U.S. visit is the starting point for a world tour that Thieu hopes will win him important friends and buttress his claim to be the leader of his country's only legitimate government. After he leaves the U.S., Thieu, a Catholic, will fly to Rome for an audience with Pope Paul. Visits to London and Bonn are likely, but Paris is out. French President Georges Pompidou, evidently unwilling to appear to be picking a winner in Viet Nam at this early stage, turned down an inquiry from Saigon about a state visit.

Thieu, who met Lyndon Johnson in Honolulu in 1966 and Richard Nixon on Midway in 1969, is at last making it to the U.S. mainland for the first time since he came to power six years ago.* Even so, his schedule falls somewhat short of his hopes. He will have two days with Nixon in San Clemente, but Vice President Spiro Agnew will be his host in Washington. Thieu wanted a chance to address both houses of Congress; instead, he will speak to the National Press Club.

But Thieu may well get most of what he wants from Nixon: up to $700 million in annual aid over the next three years, a new statement that the U.S. recognizes the Thieu regime as the only legal government in South Viet Nam and further private assurances that U.S. airpower will be available if the Communists mount another large-scale offensive.

Toward the end of his stay, Thieu and his wife will lunch with Lady Bird Johnson at the Texas ranch--a peculiar event in view of the difficulties that Thieu's stalling at the Paris talks caused L.B.J. in the last months of his presidency. Thieu will also touch base with those whom Saigon regards as important persons to know: John Connally, George Meany, certain congressional leaders and even leaders of the pro-Israel lobby, whom Thieu will remind that Saigon and Jerusalem have recently exchanged ambassadors. In short, Thieu aims to make the most of his chance to live up to Nixon's 1969 remark that he is "one of the four or five greatest politicians in the world."

* Thieu traveled to the continental U.S. twice before, in 1956 and 1960, for army training.

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