The Generals' Choice

"Nao tocar na sucessdo," reads the entry in a little black book of censorship rules kept by the managing editor of a leading Brazilian daily. "Don't touch the succession." The term of President Emilio Medici, 67, still has another year to run, and the military junta that has ruled Brazil since 1964 has made clear its feeling that the process of picking Medici's successor should not be complicated by unwelcome discussion in the press.

Despite the ban on newspaper comment, however, there is already considerable private speculation in Brazil as to which of the dozen or so generals in the junta will be picked. The odds-on favorite right now seems to be General Ernesto Geisel, 64, who is head of the government-owned petroleum monopoly, Petrobras. Geisel has one major advantage over other contenders: his brother Orlando is Minister of the Army and also a four-star general, which means they have eight stars between them. Geisel's business experience presumably would serve him well in guiding national economic policy.

Some observers, though, believe that the early rumors about Geisel clearly indicate that he is not going to be the candidate; in this theory, the stories are merely being used to stifle speculation while Medici makes up his mind. Nonetheless, the general's selection needs some public identity before his name can be put before Congress for its rubber-stamp approval next autumn, and the decision will likely come soon. "Everyone is going to start trying to line up behind spmeone," says a longtime observer, "and if there's not a clear indication of whom to get behind, signals might get crossed. It should be clear in a month or two at the latest, because the rats will start to run."

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