Between "Us" and "Chaos"

FOR the first time since the short-lived Popular Front government of Leon Blum in 1936, a radical left-wing coalition seriously threatens to win a parliamentary majority in France. Once again the coalition is headed by a Socialist, Francois Mitterrand, but if it wins this time the Communist Party will play a major role in running things. Next month no fewer than 3,140 candidates will be contesting 490 seats in the National Assembly in what may prove to be the most important and problematic French election since World War II. Despite the ruling Gaullist party's 15-year record of economic achievement, the latest newspaper polls show that the two recently reunited leftist parties are leading President Georges Pompidou's coalition by a margin of between 9% and 13%.

The nationwide surveys--published by the middle-of-the-road Paris newspapers Le Figaro (which gives the leftists 46% to the Gaullists' 37%) and L' Aurore (47% to 35%)--have shocked the complacent Gaullists and their supporters into something close to panic. Taking seriously the pledge of Socialist Mitterrand (see box page 27) that a leftist victory in France would culminate in "the suppression of capitalism," businessmen have stepped up their efforts to smuggle funds to havens in Switzerland (TIME, Feb. 19). Meanwhile, Pompidou, who as President is theoretically above party conflicts, has abandoned any pretense of neutrality in a series of stage-managed interviews. Two weeks ago, in a nationwide television interview, he warned that a Gaullist defeat in March would inevitably lead to a Communist dictatorship.

"Now, of course," said the President, "the party makes meek eyes, in an effort to please and not scare anyone" --so much so that Frenchmen really do not believe that the Communists would dare to seize power in France. "Yet did you believe that Prussia and Saxony in 1945 and Czechoslovakia in 1948 would become Communist states? Nonetheless, Communist regimes were installed there and remain very solidly entrenched." Pompidou hinted that a leftist win would plunge France into a repetition of the massive civil disorders of 1968 that led frightened French voters into re-electing the Gaullists.

Pompidou, whose presidential term still has three years to run, solemnly pledged to defend France's democratic institutions: "I am obliged to state that the Communist and Socialist proposals will completely overthrow those institutions." If such a possibility seemed remote to French voters, Gaullist Premier Pierre Messmer stressed the presumed economic consequences of a leftist sweep. He predicted a "chain reaction" of increased unemployment, a balance of payments deficit, loss of foreign markets and trouble for the franc.

In spite of these alarms and excursions, the leftists have continued to play it cool--so far with apparent success. The Communists--led by husky, strong-jawed Georges Marchais, 52, a former steelworker--have disavowed any revolutionary plans for France. Rather, they have promised to work for "social justice" entirely within the constitution and have made respectable, soothing noises about following democracy "to the end of the road."

Specter. The Socialists scoff at charges that they would become "hostages" to a Soviet-dominated Communist Party. The Communists, in turn, have displayed a modicum of independence from Moscow in recent years, and many nonleftist voters are no longer scared by the thought of Soviet domination. Mitterrand has not repeated an early pledge that his Socialists were committed to an "indestructible" five-year union with the Communists that would prevent any government from ruling France without Communist participation. Instead he stresses that the Socialists would wield a majority over the Communists in the Assembly.

There are a number of reasons for the French voters' apparent disenchantment with Gaullism. Many seem to be weary of Pompidou's arrogant exercise of presidential power. French Political Analyst Raymond Aron, a conservative, refers to Pompidou's style as "haughty, verging on the authoritarian." The low profiles presented by Mitterrand and Marchais may offer a welcome contrast. Moreover, a series of scandals involving Gaullist politicians has diminished the standing of Pompidou's party.

But French discontent evidently runs far deeper. Despite the evidence of economic progress, prosperity has not sufficiently filtered down to many blue-and white-collar workers and professionals, as well as elderly people living on wretched pensions. Nearly two-thirds of the country's 15 million workers earn less than $300 a month, while more than 2.5 million retired men and women subsist on a social security pension of $2.40 a day. Unemployment is increasing, the housing shortage has worsened for low-income families, and prices have risen 13% in the past two years. For millions, such gross inequalities seem to loom larger than the cold war specter of Communism.

The immediate result of a leftist victory is likely to be parliamentary paralysis. A Gaullist President with minority support could not govern, and Pompidou has implied that he will not ask any Socialist to form a government. "No one," he has said, "should count on me to renounce everything in which I believe." Legally, he could dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections. That was a tactic employed by DeGaulle in 1968 to frighten voters into supporting him; unfortunately, French voters have a habit of reinforcing their views in such second elections, which might mean an even larger leftist majority in the next Assembly.

The U.S. looks at the prospect of a leftist victory with great trepidation. Among other things, Washington worries about a Socialist surrender of key Cabinet posts to the Communists and about France's internal stability if the leftists push for radical measures. For that reason, the U.S. is inclined to agree with Pompidou's prediction that France faces "chaos" if the Gaullists lose. Raymond Aron, however, has a trenchant comment: "If Pompidou keeps telling the French, 'It's us or chaos,' he is likely to provoke the reply, 'Let's take a peek at what chaos looks like.' "

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