The "Second Republic"

When Zambia gained independence from Britain eight years ago, it was said that the country had two specific advantages over its neighbors: its copper mines, the richest in all Africa, and its idealistic young leader, Kenneth Kaunda. Zambia still has those assets, but both have been looking a bit tarnished lately. The price of copper has dropped from $1,400 to $1,070 per ton in the past three years, costing the country some $200 million a year in revenues. And Kaunda, now 48, under increasing political pressure at home, has decided to take the drastic step of abolishing all of the country's opposition parties and converting Zambia into a one-party state by the end of the year. The one surviving party would, of course, be Kaunda's own United National Independence Party (U.N.I.P.).

A presidential commission has already drawn up plans for a new constitution for what Kaunda calls the "Second Republic." There is no doubt that the proposals will pass; Kaunda's supporters hold 83 of the 105 seats in the National Assembly, well over the amount needed to bring the new system into effect.

In recent months, Kaunda has dealt with his opponents with increasing severity. Two weeks ago, his government arrested and jailed the organizers of a small dissident group that had been formed less than a month before to fight the introduction of a one-party system. More than 100 other opposition leaders, including Kaunda's former Vice President (and boyhood friend), Simon Kapwepwe, were detained without trial this year. Many were subsequently released, but not Kapwepwe. So far, the government has not interfered directly with the largest opposition group, the African National Congress, which holds 21 seats in the National Assembly. But the A.N.C.'s veteran leader, Harry Nkumbula, 58, knows full well that his party is doomed. He recently lost a lawsuit in which he charged that the President's Second Republic plan would infringe on Nkumbula's civil rights under the present constitution; he is appealing the court's decision, but without much hope of success.

Some of Kaunda's own followers are disturbed that the President, who is one of Black Africa's most respected leaders, has abandoned his longstanding belief that opposition parties can be eliminated only by the voters. Kaunda, a missionary's son, has changed somewhat from the serene, mild-mannered man in the khaki bush jacket whose patience and persuasiveness overrode much of the anger and bitterness engendered by the long fight for independence from Britain. He has a shorter temper nowadays, and is sometimes given to emotional outbursts. He is known to have been disturbed by a split within his party caused by the defection of Kapwepwe and a number of his followers. Last May a mysterious parcel-bomb exploded in Kaunda's office but the Zambian leader was away at the time. Kaunda's nervousness can also be attributed to his country's economic problems. Despite the drop in copper revenues, Kaunda is under pressure from his countrymen to maintain the momentum of development of roads, schools and hospitals as well as housing.

As is common in Africa, Zambia's opposition parties reflect the country's tribal divisions. The A.N.C., for example, draws most of its strength from the Tonga and Ila tribes of the south. Kapwepwe still has some support among his Bemba tribesmen, many of whom work on the central copper belt. Moreover, Kaunda believes that small opposition parties are vulnerable to subversion by his white enemies in Rhodesia and South Africa. And he is painfully aware that until the Tanzania-Zambia railway is completed by the Chinese in 1975, he will have to transport 80% of Zambia's exports and imports along rail lines that run through Rhodesia, South Africa and the rebellious Portuguese province of Mozambique.

Kaunda remains sufficiently popular to carry most of Zambia's 4,000,000 citizens with him into the Second Republic. He argues that the rights of individuals will be fully protected in the future, and it is true that similar systems elsewhere in Africa often allow a wide measure of dissent within the party. "There is no cause for fear," he said last week. "There can be no basis for believing that power will be abused." Though few Zambians doubted Kaunda's intentions, his words were not altogether reassuring--particularly to those opposition politicians who are detained in Zambian prisons.

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