The Invulnerable Lead

GEORGE MCGOVERN has maintained his forward momentum during late October, but he could hardly hope to overtake Richard Nixon by Election Day; that is the conclusion of a final TIME/Yankelovich poll, conducted by telephone from Oct. 15 to Oct. 24 among 3,010 registered voters in 16 key states. The survey, which ended just before Henry Kissinger announced that peace was "at hand," showed McGovern picking up only four percentage points over a TIME/Yankelovich poll taken earlier in the month. In the latest sampling, Nixon led by 56% to 30%, with 14% of the voters undecided, and seemed virtually invulnerable in terms of electoral votes and major issues:

> The President held a commanding lead in ten of the 16 key states and a comfortable margin in five of the remaining six. Texas, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Florida can be considered solid for Nixon; he led by margins of more than 22 points. California, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Wisconsin can all be considered as leaning toward Nixon; his spread in all five ranged between twelve and 22 points. Only one pivotal state, Massachusetts, seemed to be going the other way. Combining the states that are either solid for Nixon or leaning Republican, the poll showed the President with 318 electoral votes in the 16-state sample alone. That is 48 more than the magic number, and of course he can be expected to get more votes in the remaining states. Even in the unlikely event that McGovern were able to capture all those states now leaning toward Nixon, the resulting electoral votes, combined with the 14 from Massachusetts, would still put him behind Nixon by 34.

> If Nixon does not win by a landslide, a major reason may well be the feeling among voters that he does not deserve it. More voters than ever (85% ) said that Nixon would win; yet a plurality resisted the idea of the overwhelming consensus that Nixon is seeking. Asked if it would be better for people like themselves if Nixon won by a smaller margin or a landslide, the voters responded, 3 to 2, that they preferred a closer election. One reason seems to be that the people prefer Nixon when McGovern is the alternative but have no great fondness for the President in absolute terms. Of Nixon voters, 62% admitted that they were voting for him as the best of two available choices and not as the man they would most like to see in the White House.

> In spite of all the rhetoric, the charges and the posturing on positions during the past three months, the vast majority of voters have changed their minds very little on issues since the first Yankelovich poll in July. Voters have believed throughout the campaign that Nixon is the real peace candidate, that he will do more to keep the country's defenses strong and be better able to deal with Russia and China, and that he will do more to clean up the "welfare mess." They have continued to believe that McGovern will pay more attention to the "little man" and do more to close tax loopholes, that Nixon is too close to big business and that McGovern is too radical. The supporters whom McGovern has picked up come less from new perceptions of the issues than from old party affiliations. In late August and early September, Nixon was ahead among Democrats, 43% to 40% . Now some party members have returned to the fold; in the latest sampling, McGovern led among Democrats, 49% to 35%.

> At the time of the poll, voters did not feel that McGovern enjoyed an edge in terms of honesty, in spite of the Watergate affair and charges of impropriety against the Administration. Asked directly whether they thought that Nixon and the people working for him have run a fair and decent campaign or a dirty and unscrupulous one, 62% responded "fair," 23% "dirty," and 15% said they were not sure. McGovern and his campaign aides fared less well: 55% said they had conducted a "fair" campaign, 28% said "dirty," and 17% were not sure. Asked who was more honest and had more integrity, the responding voters picked Nixon decisively over McGovern, 43% to 28%.

> Perhaps the most marked sentiment among voters is a waning of enthusiasm for the presidential campaign itself. Traditionally, citizens become more interested in a campaign as Election Day nears. This year the reverse seems true. At the start of the campaign in July, 46% of the voters said that they were "very interested" in following the proceedings. Now only 39% remained that interested, with the major shift taking place in mid-October. Significantly, the greatest apathy was among Nixon voters and the undecided.

Because the poll was being concluded just before the current speculation about a cease-fire and an end to the Viet Nam War, it does not reflect to any degree how such a peace settlement might affect the election. Still, it is interesting to note that at the time of the poll, 73% of the voters did not expect a settlement by Election Day, while they split almost evenly when asked whether peace might come in six months. In spite of the fact that the majority did not believe that Nixon would hold true to his pledge to end the war in his four-year term, 60% felt he "was doing everything he could." That would suggest that even if the negotiations are bobbled at the last minute, the voters would not turn in any great degree against Nixon. More likely the news of serious negotiations has only strengthened Nixon's image as the real peace candidate.

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