George McGovern Returns to "Go"

OCTOBER is the month of the underdog, the time for a candidate who is trailing badly to make his most serious bid. This George McGovern is doing, but the bid does not seem strong enough. According to the latest poll conducted for TIME by Daniel Yankelovich Inc., the Democratic candidate has narrowed the gap with President Nixon, but has regained only the ground lost since the disastrous aftermath of the Eagleton affair. He remains far behind.

Telephone interviews with 2,323 registered voters in 16 key states constituting 62% of the total electoral vote found Richard Nixon ahead, 57% to 27%, with 16% undecided. That lead of 30 points during the Oct. 1 to Oct. 10 period is nine points smaller than the Nixon margin in the same type of Yankelovich survey one month earlier. McGovern has narrowed the contest in four big states--New York, California, Michigan and Pennsylvania--but the latest findings are close to the results of the first Yankelovich Poll for TIME, taken in late July and early August. In effect, George McGovern has returned to "Go" with only one month remaining in the campaign.

The President's lead seems far too large to be overcome by Nov. 7. Says Yankelovich: "Only something as dramatic as a sudden collapse of confidence in Mr. Nixon's Viet Nam policies is likely to close the gap entirely." Among the specific findings:

>McGovern is recapturing some of the Democrats who were earlier thinking of voting Republican. In the last TIME Poll, Nixon held a three-point lead among Democratic voters; now McGovern is ahead within his own party, 45% to 36%. McGovern has also gained ground on issues usually favorable to Democratic candidates. On such questions as which candidate would do more to close tax loopholes, would pay more attention to "the needs of the little man," and would do "more for minorities," McGovern now has respectable leads--as he did in late July and early August.

-- There is clear-cut evidence that the race issue is playing an important part in the campaign. Of the voters polled, 38% said too much attention was being paid to minorities, 21% thought minorities were getting too little attention, and 24% held that they were treated about right. It was significant that nearly three out of four people who answered "too much" also identified themselves as Nixon voters.

> On foreign and military affairs, Nixon remains solidly ahead. When asked if the President is doing "everything he can" to end the war in Viet Nam, 62% said yes, 54% viewed Nixon as the "peace candidate"--a cruel irony for the Democrats because it was Viet Nam that first brought McGovern to prominence. The poll, however, was concluded on the day that McGovern made his major Viet Nam policy speech and does not reflect whatever impact the TV talk had. On the question of which candidate could "deal more effectively with Russia and China," 71% chose Nixon.

>The Watergate episode and the general problem of corruption continue to have little impact on the electorate at large. Only 3% of the voters volunteered that corruption is a national issue of concern. Just 23% agreed fully with the statement that Nixon, as head of his party, should be held accountable for the Watergate bugging; 16% agreed partially, 45% disagreed, and the rest were not sure.

> Though congressional races will be fairly tight, it appears that the Democrats will keep control of Congress. Nearly one out of three Democrats who intend to vote for Nixon said that they will also vote or are inclined to vote Republican in a congressional race--a considerable proportion but probably not enough to tip the balance. Forty-one percent of the voters said that they either plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district or leaned toward him, while the comparable Republican figure was 36%.

> There are now clear signs of voter weariness with the campaign, and a distinct lack of personal enthusiasm for either candidate. The ennui results from the lack of suspense; 84% think that Nixon will win. Another factor is the candidates' inability to excite the electorate. Two out of three committed voters in the poll said that they are voting for the man who is the "best available choice," rather than for the man whom they would "most like to see as President." The implication is that Nixon would not do nearly so well against a stronger candidate.

Yankelovich asked this question: "Now, forgetting politics, whom do you find more attractive as a personality--Nixon, McGovern or neither one?" The result: Nixon, 34%; McGovern, 26% ; neither one, 32% ; not sure, 8%. By this measure, McGovern is only eight points behind Nixon, a contrast to the 30-point spread on the main question of whom the voters pick for President. Obviously, the electorate prefers Nixon for reasons other than his personality. He may turn out to be the least liked man ever to win by a landslide.

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