In 16 Key States, Nixon Leads 2 to 1

INCUMBENT Presidents traditionally start election campaigns with comfortable leads, only to see them narrow or vanish in the crunch of events and the campaigning itself. Richard Nixon's margin at this point seems not only comfortable but overwhelming. The first of a new series of TIME Polls, conducted by Daniel Yankelovich Inc., between July 24 and Aug. 7, took soundings from 2,320 representative voters from 16 "battleground" states, including seven deemed critical by both parties. * The sample, interviewed in depth by telephone concerning wide-ranging issues and attitudes, gave Nixon a 2-to-l edge over George McGovern, 56% to 28% . Among Democrats (47% of those polled), McGovern won only 45% to Nixon's 37%, while McGovern picked up only 4% of the Republicans (27 % of the total sample). The President outpolled McGovern in all seven critical states, with margins ranging from a low of 17% in New York to a high of 39 % in Texas. All 16 states together command 332 of the 538 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).

Fate has a way of mocking early political forecasts and the TIME Poll, taken during the Eagleton imbroglio, clearly reflects a low point for McGovern. But the attitudes of the voters toward the candidates and the issues are hardly more encouraging for McGovern. They suggest that he is not only running behind Nixon but out of step with the average citizen. Among the poll's findings:

Richard Nixon seems to occupy the same political ground as the vast majority of voters.

Asked to characterize themselves as "conservative," "moderate," "liberal" or "radical," 75% of the voters labeled themselves "moderate" to "conservative," while only 15% admitted to being "liberal" and 2% to being "radical." Asked to characterize the candidates in the same terms, the same number, 75 % classified Nixon as "conservative" to "moderate," while placing McGovern far to their left: 31% considered him "liberal," and 22% tarred him with radicalism. A majority--51%--agreed with the statement, "Your views and interests are not well represented by McGovern and the Democratic Party." Disagreement came from 34%. In response to the same statement about Nixon and the Republicans, 44% said that Nixon did not represent their views, while 46% said he did.

> While the majority of those interviewed considered the war the main issue of the presidential campaign, they did not seem to associate McGovern with peace.

One question was: "Generally, who would you say is the real peace candidate, Nixon or McGovern?" In response, 47% named Nixon; only 39% picked McGovern. And despite the fact that 80% agreed in whole or part that Nixon has not told the truth about the war, 62% thought that he was doing everything he could to end it. The figures reflected a lack of confidence in McGovern's ability to handle international relations. Underscoring one of the President's major political assets, 70 % thought that Nixon would be better able to deal with China and Russia, while 68% believed that he would do more to keep the nation's defenses "strong."

> The economy has emerged as the second most pressing issue of the campaign, but so far McGovern seems to have benefited little from the voters' concern.

While the sample considered McGovern a 2-to-l favorite to close tax loopholes, the odds were almost reversed on his chances of keeping prices down, even though 49% said Nixon is not doing everything possible to keep prices from rising. Despite a clear consensus that McGovern is the champion of the "little man," voters gave Nixon a 9% edge in being able to handle the unions more "fairly." Union members participating in the poll gave Nixon a startling 15% margin over McGovern.

> Nixon's strength is as broad as it is deep. He polls well even among voting groups that McGovern counts on heavily.

An analysis of the 18-to 24-year-old voters shows McGovern outpolling Nixon, but by a slim margin. While 51% of the college students preferred McGovern, the total 18-24 bracket gave him only a 5% edge. Nixon enjoys a margin of nearly 3 to 1 among Protestants and almost 2 to 1 among Catholics; while McGovern leads among Jewish voters, his margin is a surprisingly thin 7%. The only groups that seem to be completely polarized by the candidates are the blacks and the Wallace conservatives. The poll shows that blacks prefer McGovern 7 to 1, whereas virtually all of Wallace's support is seen to be going over to Nixon. Were Wallace in the race, 15% of those polled would vote for him. Of that 15%, 12% would come from Nixon's column, 2% from the "undecided" and 1% from McGovern. Had Wallace run, in other words, Nixon's lead would have shrunk from 28% to 17% .

> The majority of voters have grown decidedly mistrustful of present high Government office holders, but there is little evidence that George McGovern can capitalize on that mistrust.

No less than 52% of the sample admitted that they "do not trust people in power" as much as they used to, which presumably reflects the Administration's involvements with ITT and the Watergate bugging case; yet only 2% of the voters mentioned "corruption in Government" as an issue. And when asked who could better "raise the moral standards" of the country, voters gave Nixon a 21 % edge over McGovern.

> The majority of voters seem generally satisfied with the way things are.

In spite of the continuing war, rising food prices and crime rates, and general concern over drugs and immorality, 52% of the sample considered things to be going "well" in the country these days, compared with 43% who thought they were going "badly." Disaffection seems widespread, to be sure, but at the moment it appears hardly sufficient to sweep McGovern into the White House. Surprisingly, 62% of those polled said that they were not worried about rapid changes in their neighborhoods (35% were). An overwhelming 67% of the sample were "totally opposed" to school busing; yet oddly, only 6% regarded it as a major issue. That could change, of course, when the nation's schools reopen next month. Other supposedly volatile issues also scored low on the voters' laundry list of complaints: only 12% mentioned drugs, and only 1% mentioned amnesty and abortion.

For the moment, the poll shows only one wide opening in the door for McGovern--Nixon's ties with big business. No less than 67% answered yes when asked if Nixon was "too close to big business." In response to a slightly different question, 70% of the sample said that Nixon would be the more apt to "protect big business" than McGovern. Add to that the voters' confidence that McGovern is the man who can close tax loopholes, and the Democratic candidate might find a theme.

For now, however, McGovern's main task seems to be to convince the American people that he is not already out of the race. Asked who they think will win, regardless of their preferences, a staggering 76% of those polled picked Nixon, including 53% of those who favor McGovern. Yet the underdog's role is one McGovern seems to relish. He did, after all, start his march toward the Democratic nomination with only a 5% rating in the polls, and won it going away.

* The seven critical states are California, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan. The other nine are New Jersey, Florida, Massachusetts. Indiana. North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Virginia and Wisconsin.

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