The Crisis Continues

The lengthy, tension-ridden debate over Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik has faced West Germany's Christian Democratic Union with an unhappy dilemma. For nearly two years they have been saying that they would never vote for the Treaties of Moscow and Warsaw, which are essential to Brandt's hopes of easing tensions with Bonn's Communist neighbors. Now that the treaties have been put forward for ratification, however, the C.D.U. does not want to bear the onus of killing them, since the pacts have become the keys to further progress in East-West detente. But Brandt's coalition of Social Democrats and Free Democrats no longer has a clear majority in the Bundestag--which means that passage of the treaties is up to the C.D.U.

In search of a solution, Christian Democrat Leader Rainer Barzel two weeks ago agreed to a government proposal that appeared to be a reasonable compromise: a joint interpretation of treaties by the four parliamentary parties that would overcome the objections of the C.D.U. and those of its Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union. Rather than see his Ostpolitik go down to almost certain defeat, Brandt postponed the vote for a week to enable all sides to work out a joint declaration.

Last week, on the day before the vote, Barzel and a C.S.U. representative met with Brandt and Foreign Minister Walter Scheel, the leader of the Free Democrats, in the Chancellor's home on Venusberg. Also present was Soviet Ambassador Valentin Falin.

Over tea and coffee, the four German leaders agreed to a ten-point declaration, which Falin tentatively approved pending final confirmation from Moscow. The declaration reassured the opposition by stating, among other things, that the treaties, even though they renounce Bonn's claims to former German territories now held by Poland and Russia, do not prejudice the German right to a peaceful reunification and do not establish a legal basis for the present borders.

Later that day, however, while Barzel was trying to swing C.D.U. hard-liners behind the declaration, a message came from Brandt's office that the Soviets had raised objections to the statement. Barzel, who has a reputation for being a cool operator, was visibly shaken. Ashen-faced, he left the caucus, muttering, "I don't understand." In his absence, a rumor raced through the opposition ranks that the Soviets had rejected the declaration out of hand.

Further Delay. By midnight Ambassador Falin had cleared up Moscow's legalistic objections. But by then most of West Germany's morning newspapers had gone to press with headlines telling of the supposed Soviet intransigence. As the Bundestag assembled for the vote the next morning, it was evident that Barzel had lost control of his party, which was lining up against the treaties. Taking the floor, Barzel pleaded for a delay. Brandt imprudently pressed for a vote, but after balloting on a procedural issue ended in a deadlock, he agreed to yet another postponement and set the vote on the treaties for this week. That respite would presumably give Barzel, who at week's end was collecting support from the C.D.U.'s conservatives, enough time to reassert his control over the party. If he succeeds, the treaties will surely be passed.

Even so, Bonn's parliamentary crisis still will not be solved. Though the Christian Democrats may help ratify the pacts, they intend to seek the overthrow of the Brandt coalition on the next order of government business--the passage of a new budget.

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