A TIME Election Survey: The Lessons of Florida

As part of its election year coverage, TIME has commissioned the attitude research firm of Daniel Yankelovlch, Inc. to conduct a series of in-depth surveys. The first effort, in Florida, queried 389 voters in eleven Florida counties as they emerged from the polling booths. The interviews turned up four interesting points as to why Floridians voted as they did. They revealed that 1) George Wallace is seen as a populist rather than an extremist; 2) busing was the cutting issue only because no candidate knew how to benefit from widespread concern about the economy; 3) Edmund Muskie is still potentially stronger than the size of his vote would indicate; and 4) Richard Nixon is the real choice of Florida's Democratic voters. Yankelovich's analysis:

WALLACE. He scored two significant successes in Florida. One, obviously, was his strong showing at the polls, the other his successful projection of a respectable, populist image. Among Wallace voters, 84% said that they thought more highly of him now than they did a few months ago, 59% saw him as a champion of the working man, and 55% as honest and courageous. In fact, 41 % of the Florida voters sampled who consider themselves moderates cast their ballots for Wallace. His winning populist profile pre-empted Jackson's ability to score as an antibusing candidate. Of those Floridians who voted no on the statewide busing referendum, 54% found it "respectable" to vote for Wallace, while only 14% voted for Jackson. Nonetheless, the racist image continues to haunt Wallace. Among those who did not vote for him, 53% still think of him as racist, 34% say he is too extreme, and 26% label him a one-issue candidate.

ISSUES. While no candidate save Wallace showed any strength on the busing issue, Humphrey and especially Jackson ran strongly on the basis of their stands on the economy. According to voters, the two most compelling reasons for selecting a candidate were 1) "I agree with how he or she stands on particular issues," and 2) He or she "understands the problems of people like me." The survey revealed that the issues that voters said were of the greatest importance--ending the Viet Nam War and improving the economy--were not decisive in choosing a candidate. Asked to rank the chief issues influencing their choice, voters listed busing first, the economy second, crime third and ending the war fourth.

MUSKIE. His poor showing was the result of three factors: no image, no issue and no empathy. More than seven out of ten voters polled indicated that they had no clear impression of Muskie, either good or bad. His strategy of running in all of the primaries led to his spreading himself too thin and afforded him little opportunity to give voters anywhere a clear impression of who he is and what he stands for. Unlike Wallace, who played the busing controversy for all it was worth, Muskie failed to identify himself with any single major issue. As a result, he did not communicate empathy--the desire of voters to feel that he understands their problems --even among his own voters. The Florida primary is a clear signal to Edmund Muskie that his theme song, "trust me and believe me," lacks conviction.

Though faltering, the Muskie campaign is far from finished, however. Many voters, particularly those who selected Wallace, Jackson, and McGovern, stressed the importance at this stage of the game of voting for their convictions rather than of defeating the Republican candidate. Indeed, the replies to two questions in the survey show that Muskie's potential strength is greater than indicated by his meager 9% share of the Florida vote. In reply to one query, the sampling of Democratic voters named Muskie as their leading second choice for the nomination. In another response tally he emerged as the only Democrat who, if the election were held today, would defeat Nixon, albeit by a very slim margin. In sum, if Muskie interprets the lesson of Florida correctly, he might yet salvage his campaign.

NIXON. If pitted against Nixon, not a single Democratic candidate would get a majority of the votes in the presidential election. According to the views of those interviewed, Nixon would win easily against Wallace, Jackson, Lindsay or McGovern. Against Humphrey, Nixon shows a slight edge (48% to 47%, 5% undecided). Only Muskie bests Nixon by the slim margin of 46% to 45%, with 9% undecided. However, should Wallace end up running for President, the evidence, in Florida at least, is that his third-party candidacy might aid the Democratic nominee and hurt Nixon badly. A resounding 86% of those who voted for Wallace in the primary would stay with him in a race against Nixon for President.

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