Rounding Up the Strays

In trying to achieve an interim Middle East peace agreement, the U.S. often resembles a sheep dog straining to keep its flock together: as fast as one errant lamb is maneuvered back into line, another one darts away. Last year Washington conceived the idea of "proximity discussions," in which the Egyptians, who refuse to negotiate directly with the Israelis, could do so through a third party, probably U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Sisco. When the idea was first proposed last year, Egypt agreed but Israel held out. Secretary of State William Rogers had proposed a six-point plan for the opening of the Suez Canal to serve as a possible blueprint for the talks; Israel protested that the U.S. was acting more like an arbiter than a mediator. Last week, after lengthy discussions the Israelis finally agreed to negotiate.

Israel received substantial benefits for agreeing to take part, so much so that Israeli-American relations have risen from an alltime low last fall to a new high. For one thing, the U.S. decided to deliver 40 or so Phantom jets that Premier Golda Meir had sought to buy for a year. The Administration has indicated that the planes will be shipped piecemeal and for only as long as Israel continues to be cooperative. In an election year, however, Nixon is not likely to hold back on jets that have become a symbol of American support for Israel.

Nonconsenting. In addition, Sisco and Israeli Ambassador Yitzhak Rabin have worked out certain "clarifications" of the U.S. role in the negotiations. Washington will be free to propose solutions if deadlocks arise or arrangements falter. Any new U.S. suggestions will be broached privately to Israel, instead of being sprung publicly as Rogers' six points were last fall. "We're happy with the arrangement," says one Israeli diplomat in Washington. "It provides a satisfactory link between two nonconsenting adults."

The timing of last week's announcement of agreement in Jerusalem was hardly accidental. It coincided with a trip to Moscow by Egypt's President Anwar Sadat, who angrily maintains that he has broken all contacts with the U.S. on any talks. Thus Sadat, instead of Golda Meir, could now be cast as the reluctant party. The U.S. is hopeful that Sadat, after he returns to Cairo, will decide to take part in the discussions, which have been dubbed "hotel talks" because, in one proposed formulation, all three parties would be housed in a single hotel.

Unfortunately, the Egyptian attitude toward the U.S. has cooled as that of the Israelis has grown warmer, and for the same reason: the agreement on the Phantoms. As one Cairo journalist puts it: "How can anyone depict Washington as an honest broker? The White House has already dealt the cards to the other side." Beyond that, Egypt's mood after four years of no peace, no war is one of frustration; demonstrating university students in Cairo three weeks ago demanded that the country go to war, even if it loses. Sadat, though he is no longer confident that he can recover Sinai, has promised war but he will not say when. To the despair of Egyptians, Russians and Americans, Sudat painted himself into a corner last year by proclaiming "a year of decision." then neatly got out of his predicament by telling countrymen that the India-Pakistan war had postponed Middle East confrontations. Visiting troops at Aswan last week just before he left for Moscow, Sadat told them: "The decision for the battle has been taken and is not debatable." Then he added: "I will set the new zero hour after I have talked to the Soviet leaders."

Unofficial Visit. Since Sadat was in Moscow only four months ago and was lavishly received by Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev, his latest trip was simply billed as a "friendly unofficial visit." The Russians confined it to working sessions and laid on no banquets, although Brezhnev extended to Sadat the courtesy of an airport greeting. If Egypt's President had gone to Moscow to seek new offensive weapons for the war he hopes to wage against Israel, he was disappointed. A joint communique issued at meeting's end spoke vaguely of strengthening Egypt's military capability, but there was no hint of a promise of additional arms.

Actually, the Soviet view--particularly with Nixon due to visit Moscow in May--is that a political solution is the desired course. The Russians are not anxious to see Washington earn credit for it, however. Thus last week's communique made no mention of the hotel talks or Israel's readiness to negotiate. Instead the Soviets and Egyptians called for the resumption of other, broader peace talks under the aegis of United Nations Mediator Gunnar Jarring; these discussions have been stalled for a year. Israel dislikes Jarring's approach. He has shown himself more rigid than Rogers by pressing for commitments from Jerusalem on borders before real negotiations begin, and the Israelis are resisting his efforts. If they continue to do so, and if Sadat shies away from the hotel talks, the sheep dog will have to go to work again, rounding up the strays.

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