Will the Democrats Nominate Muskie?

IN the five months since Senator Edmund Muskie started going all out to get the Democratic presidential nomination, his candidacy has steadily gained momentum. There were some rough months for Muskie when he ran short of campaign cash. Now, however, he looks increasingly like the man who will grab the brass ring at Miami Beach in July. In Las Vegas, Soothsayer Jimmy ("the Greek") Snyder is giving 2 to 5 odds that Muskie will be the nominee.

A Jan. 17 Harris poll showed Muskie tied with Nixon in popularity; both got 42%. In that Harris survey, George Wallace scored 11%. Last week, in a Gallup poll of Democratic voters, results for the first time since the Chappaquiddick episode showed that Muskie was the popular choice over Ted Kennedy 32% to 27%. Another Gallup poll, excluding Kennedy, gave Muskie 39% to Hubert Humphrey's 29%.

Democratic Party leaders have been lining up behind Muskie for some time. The endorsements are creating the impression that the smart money is going with Muskie, which can help him win convention delegates in the upcoming primaries. Muskie is far ahead of his competition, but he still must ratify his lead by producing a good showing with the voters. The first few primaries could be crucial; if he wins big in New Hampshire and leads the pack in Florida, he will be almost unstoppable. Muskie is campaigning flat out in Florida against George Wallace, the favorite. If he comes in second to Wallace he will be in good shape still; if Hubert Humphrey beats Muskie in Florida, though, Muskie will have to try to recoup in Wisconsin.

Around the U.S. last week, TIME correspondents in charge of regional political campaign coverage responded to the question: Is Muskie in?

THE EAST: YES

New York Bureau Chief Frank McCulloch is responsible for New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, with 642 of the 3,103 convention delegates.

If the Democratic National Convention were held today, Ed Muskie would win about 60% of the delegate votes in the five-state Eastern region. Barring a stumble, Muskie will have a heavy majority of delegates in the three largest states, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. He will get scattered support in Maryland and Delaware. Humphrey's purported strength with organized labor is hard to locate; in New Jersey and New York, says one New Jersey county chairman, Humphrey "hardly shows." That leaves George McGovern in second place in the East--a distant second, to be sure, but far ahead of Lindsay, McCarthy and Chisholm. To Democratic politicians, Muskie's strengths are that he has made few enemies and that he simply looks like a winner.

NEW ENGLAND: YES

Boston Bureau Chief John Stacks is responsible for the six New England states from Maine to Connecticut, with 235 delegates.

Muskie is not only the current front runner in the race for the Democratic nomination, he also is the only candidate in the pack who is a New Englander. He is sure to win almost all of the section's delegates easily. Maine will of course come out solidly for the native son. Vermont and Rhode Island also will support the Muskie nomination. The psychologically important primary in New Hampshire on March 7 is already crowded with candidates, and their sheer number will probably reduce Muskie's winning margin to about 55% of the total vote.

Muskie forces in Massachusetts have moved into the vacuum created when Senator Edward Kennedy declined to enter the contest. The Muskie team has put together a proficient political organization and plans to field a tough-to-beat delegate slate that will help Muskie capture all of the convention votes from Massachusetts. In Connecticut liberal leaders Joe Duffey and Anne Wexler have climbed aboard, assuring Muskie the support he needs to win.

THE SOUTH: NO

Atlanta Bureau Chief Joseph Kane is responsible for eleven states of the Old Confederacy from Virginia to Texas, with 595 delegates.

Most Southern Democrats are highly suspicious of Muskie. Here, the Muskie bandwagon has to steer around the chuckholes of Southern conservatism. In Georgia, party pros were upset by an apparent Muskie snub during a trip he made to the state in December; old-line Georgia whites disliked his escorting Mrs. Coretta King to church. He has some following in Alabama, but has yet to campaign there. Several Mississippi delegate votes that could go to Muskie depend on who wins the current dispute between a black-liberal coalition and party regulars who lean to Henry Jackson. Arkansas delegate votes will be in the hands of Wilbur Mills until he decides to release them. Tennessee will probably split between Jackson and George Wallace. Texas Democrats could support Muskie, but much depends on whether he gets the nod from Lyndon Johnson over Humphrey. Muskie looks good only in Virginia, North Carolina and--because he has a first-rate organization--South Carolina. Florida, the first test, remains a question mark.

THE MIDWEST: YES

Chicago Bureau Chief Gregory Wierzynski is responsible for 15 states ranging from Ohio to Oklahoma, with 1,001 delegates.

In the large Midwest states the smoothly functioning Edmund Muskie organization makes him the leader in the race for the nomination. The Muskie candidacy also has drawn an array of impressive endorsements from Midwest political leaders. His Polish origins make him popular in the ethnic wards of Chicago, Cleveland and Milwaukee. Rural voters have been impressed by his folksy manner. Only in Minnesota and South Dakota, Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory, is he lagging behind.

Although his support is widespread, it could falter, as it apparently did last week in Iowa where Muskie won only 35.6% of the delegates elected in precinct caucuses while McGovern--who was expected to run poorly--won 23%. Also, big city blacks could turn to Hubert Humphrey in reaction against Muskie's veto of a black running mate. But at this point Muskie looks like the winner in the Midwest.

THE WEST: YES

Los Angeles Bureau Chief Don Neff is responsible for 13 states stretching from New Mexico to Montana and west to Alaska and Hawaii, with 578 delegates.

In Wyoming they wish there were a candidate in the Harry Truman give-'em-hell mold, in Arizona they would like to see a man with charisma and in Colorado they complain about the lack of excitement in the presidential race. Still, Muskie today looks like he has the Democratic nomination assured in the 13 Western states.

The key to the region is California and its massive bloc of 271 delegates, second largest in the nation. The June 6 winner-take-all primary is crucial to Muskie's control of the West. Humphrey shows surprising strength and could cause Muskie trouble, but as of now Muskie appears to lead in California--and thus in the whole region. While he may not take every state, he should have a plurality.

The strategy has been simple but effective: get the endorsements of local politicians. As more and more state leaders publicly announce their dedication to Muskie, the effect is to create a Muskie steamroller. If Muskie can have the same effect on the Western states' grass-roots voters, he will be an easy winner here.

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