Gilligan's Dilemma

If Richard Nixon is to hid successfully for a second term in the White House, one of the key states he needs in November 1972 is Ohio; no Republican President has ever been elected without carrying it. Hardly a secret to the G.O.P.. that axiom of American politics weighs most painfully at present in the mind of a Democrat. Ohio's red-haired Governor, John J. Gilligan. He faces a tough dilemma. Before he can hope to mount an effective campaign against a Republican presidential drive in his own state, he must make a crucial decision about which--if any--of the Democratic presidential hopefuls he will actively support.

Gilligan's deadline is almost at hand. The state-delegate filing law has the practical effect of forcing him, by Feb. 2, to declare support for one of the Democratic candidates or to remain uncommitted by asserting his own candidacy as a favorite son. Either course promises to be a rough one for Gilligan. By opting for one candidate, he would be dispersing the bargaining power of the 153-man Ohio delegation, fifth largest at the convention. On the other hand, if he chooses the increasingly unfashionable favorite-son road, he would diminish his personal reputation as a reformer, contravene the spirit of the broadening changes in delegate-selection rules formulated by the Democratic Party (TIME, Dec. 6) and risk attack for political bossism.

Bandwagon Wheels. It is an intriguing case study in the operation of the new Democratic guidelines. Of the present candidates, Muskie is Gilligan's favorite. At this stage, endorsement of Muskie would constitute the most powerful boost yet to his presidential chances, and provide wheels for a bandwagon. Gilligan's political clout with Ohio Democrats is such that an endorsement would do more for Muskie than the recently announced support by Senators John Tunney of California and Thomas Mclntyre of New Hampshire.

On the other hand, a Gilligan endorsement of Muskie would almost certainly bring into the Ohio May 2 primary every other serious Democratic contender. This would result in a run on the campaign chests of hard-pressed Democrats of perhaps as much as $500,000 per candidate, and a bloody splintering of the state Democratic organization into brawling fiefdoms. It would also divert some of Muskie's energies from the similarly critical primaries of Oregon and California.

Most of Ohio's labor and party leaders have indicated they lean heavily toward the favorite-son course. So have the party's county chairmen and the state's Democratic executive committee, who voted 98-14 for that strategy shortly before Thanksgiving. Gilligan has a cynical explanation for the ballot: "They want to be wined and dined all over Miami."

Gilligan will make a decision this week. He has had plenty of advice and company. Columbus is a frequent port of call for Mark Shields, political director for the Muskie campaign and a former Gilligan aide. Robert McAlister, who has built an impressive grass-roots organization for McGovern that numbers 7,000 volunteers throughout the state, apprehensively watches these comings and goings from his own Columbus office. Not to be kept out of things, Hubert Humphrey was in the state last week for hearings of a Senate rural poverty subcommittee. Henry Jackson's men have also been eying the state as a potential battleground.

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