Could He Win in 72 Despite Chappaquiddick?

IT has been more than 28 months since Senator Edward Kennedy drove a car off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island, causing the death by drowning of Mary Jo Kopechne and, some thought, fatally injuring his chances of ever becoming President. In this survey, the TIME bureau chiefs who with the help of 76 local correspondents will report on the five major regions for the 1972 campaign were asked whether Ted could defeat Richard Nixon--with particular emphasis on the residue of Chappaquiddick. Their answers are not a forecast but a reading of present sentiment; any number of factors could change the situation. Nor do these reports attempt to judge other candidates who might do as well or better against Nixon.

The views below add up to surprising strength for Non-Candidate Kennedy. As of now, the TIME correspondents find the President two votes shy of the 270 Electoral College yeas needed for a second term. Kennedy has 188, with 82 votes in states too close to call. In short, Ted would have a chance. The findings, by region:

THE EAST: YES

New York Bureau Chief Frank McCulloch is responsible for New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, with 98 electoral votes. Chappaquiddick will indeed be an issue, and it will hurt Kennedy--but not enough to offset his strengths. A Kennedy candidacy would make a Nixon-Kennedy election largely a personality contest, and the Kennedy charisma would outweigh Chappaquiddick, although the impact of the bridge would vary from state to state. He would probably lose in Delaware and Maryland. Chappaquiddick would reduce his chances in Pennsylvania to at best an even choice. But the freer lifestyles of New York and New Jersey place less premium on personal conduct. Kennedy would probably carry New Jersey, and he would certainly defeat Nixon in New York--and those two states would give him a majority of the region's electoral votes.

NEW ENGLAND: YES

Boston Bureau Chief John Stacks is responsible for the six New England states from Maine to Connecticut, with 37 electoral votes.

The liability of Chappaquiddick might lessen Kennedy's advantage in his home region, but it would not eliminate it, and he could carry the area quite comfortably. All of New England is suffering from a lagging economy, giving any Democrat a chance to win in the less conservative states. Kennedy could easily carry Rhode Island and his home state of Massachusetts, where he won re-election after Chappaquiddick, although by a reduced margin. Even Republican pros give Teddy an edge in Connecticut. In Maine, the issue would not be Chappaquiddick or the economy; it would be home-state resentment of Kennedy for beating Muskie out of the nomination. In that event, even if Muskie worked hard for Kennedy, Nixon might win there, as he surely would in Vermont and New Hampshire. But the Kennedy victories in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut would give Kennedy the area.

THE SOUTH: NO

Atlanta Bureau Chief Joseph Kane is responsible for the eleven states of the Old Confederacy from Virginia to Texas, with 130 electoral votes. Kennedy's whole being is out of step with the Southern lifestyle. He comes from the wrong place; his appearance is unkempt. To people here, he seems to talk funny and think differently. Southerners will not forget that Kennedy supported Charles Evers in Mississippi, that he was an early Viet Nam dove and that he helped sabotage Haynsworth and Carswell. The code word for all these attitudes is "Chappaquiddick." The word is heard often and is used, says Alabama Democratic State Chairman Bob Vance, "like a kick in the groin." In the Deep South most folks criticize Kennedy for having an unmarried girl in his car, which offends Southern Baptist fundamentalism. In the more moderate upper South, folks talk about Teddy's abdication of responsibility by swimming away from his duty in panic.

In Texas, Kennedy's candidacy would revive the feud between L.B.J. and Bobby Kennedy Democrats. In South Carolina, he would drive loyal conservative Democrats into the arms of Nixon again. In North Carolina, the old-line Dems like Terry Sanford would vote for him, but east Carolina residents would follow Wallace, and people in the Piedmont would return to Nixon. In short, Teddy would be wise to sit out the next election if his success depends on the South.

THE MIDWEST: NO

Chicago Bureau Chief Gregory Wierzynski is responsible for 15 states ranging from Ohio to Oklahoma, with 168 electoral votes.

This region is one of the hardest to gauge. Because of farm unrest over low crop and livestock prices at a time of rising costs, Nixon is vulnerable in states where farmers could make the difference. The Midwest likes Muskie's soothing style and Humphrey's farm and labor expertise. It distrusts the shrillness and controversy that surround Kennedy, and he would be least likely among Democrats to take full advantage of Nixon's weakness. Kennedy could probably carry Minnesota, Michigan and South Dakota--but they might be all.

Chappaquiddick does have a bite here, particularly in the Bible Belt areas of Kansas and Nebraska and in the Catholic pockets of Wisconsin. The suggestion that Kennedy, a married man, might have been involved with a single woman pains many. The Democratic Party pros seem to feel more strongly about the issue than many rank-and-file Democrats. When asked about Ted, Democratic state chairmen here tend to snap: "He's the fellow who went off the bridge." To carry the area, Kennedy would have to break through in such large states as Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio and Illinois. But the Democratic Party in Ohio seems too badly split to unite behind Kennedy. Chappaquiddick could be decisive in Wisconsin and Missouri, and polls show Nixon slightly ahead of Kennedy in Illinois. Although the odds are against him, Kennedy nevertheless would be no pushover in the area.

THE WEST: YES

Los Angeles Bureau Chief Don Neff is responsible for 13 states stretching from New Mexico to Montana and west to Alaska and Hawaii, with 102 electoral votes.

The key in this region is California, with its 45 electoral votes, and there are few states in the nation where Kennedy is more popular. His attractiveness to the young, the minorities and the old-line Democrats, who hold a large registration advantage, makes him a politician's dream here. He is probably the only Democrat who could beat Nixon in the state. Chappaquiddick would hurt, but California, unlike many other states, has a tolerance for personal idiosyncrasies, and the incident would not prove fatal to him. Kennedy would certainly pick up Hawaii, and he would then need only one of the other eleven states to carry the region.

They would not be easy for him to net, however, since most went for Nixon last time. Chappaquiddick is a grave liability in much of the Old West, where chivalry is still esteemed. Many a Montanan asks: "How could he leave that little gal alone?" That kind of sentiment is heard most often in strong Republican states, where Kennedy could not expect to win even if there had been no drowning. Here as elsewhere round the U.S., one senses that Chappaquiddick is often used as a rationale for those who never did like Kennedy.

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