Blackouts and Border Battles

In New Delhi last week, civil defense forces staged two blackouts to prepare the capital's 3,630,000 residents for the possible outbreak of open warfare with Pakistan. Both blackouts failed miserably. While half the city was plunged into darkness, Connaught Circus, New Delhi's Times Square, remained lit up like a Christmas tree.

There were trial blackouts in the East Pakistan capital of Dacca too, but they are taken much more seriously there; after all, civil war between Bengali rebels and the Pakistani army is already a bloody reality. The Pakistan military command urged East Pakistanis to begin digging trenches in the compounds of all buildings "to face any eventuality."

The most fearful eventuality now seems all too possible. Both India and Pakistan deny that they are drifting into an undeclared war, as they did in Kashmir in 1965, but there were reports that each side had violated the other's borders. According to Indian Defense Minister Jagjivan Ram, the "ground rules" call for the two nations to tolerate "minor" provocations by one another. The danger is that either side may decide that a major violation has occurred and strike back in force. Both have sizable forces stationed near the borders--80,000 Pakistani regulars are in East Pakistan and perhaps as many as 120,000 Indians are along the 1,300-mile eastern border. Because of the earlier dispute over Kashmir, the western frontier, where each side has deployed an estimated 250,000 troops, could prove to be the more dangerous.

Each side has frequently violated the other's airspace. For weeks, Pakistani and Indian forces have been shelling each other over the eastern border. Some relief camps in India have been hit by Pakistani shelling, with resulting casualties among the nearly 10 million refugees who fled East Pakistan in the wake of the Pakistani civil war. Pakistani terrorists have also been slipping behind Indian lines to commit sabotage. For India's part, a brigade-size force, stationed near the border town of Belonia, was reported to have helped Bengali guerrillas drive the Pakistan army out of a 40-mile square area of East Pakistan last week.

With such skirmishes threatening to get out of hand, a high U.S. State Department official warned: "The burning fuse is fast reaching the powder." Accordingly, the big powers took measures last week to urge restraints on India and Pakistan. Though China and the U.S. have both appeared to be lined up with Pakistan and the Soviet Union with India, the three outsiders are extremely reluctant to get involved. In Washington, Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Sisco called in both the Indian and Pakistani ambassadors and stressed that the situation must be immediately defused. The Administration announced that it was revoking $3,600,000 worth of arms licenses to Pakistan; the licenses had been approved before Richard Nixon imposed an embargo on new arms sales to Islamabad last March.

Qualified Support. The same day that the arms halt was announced in Washington, a high-level Pakistani delegation returned home from Peking. Headed by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, former Foreign Minister and now leader of the Pakistan People's Party, the mission met with Premier Chou En-lai and other Chinese dignitaries in what was viewed as a move to counter India's recently signed friendship treaty with Moscow. The Pakistanis received qualified support. While Peking vaguely pledged help "should Pakistan be subjected to foreign aggression." it also urged the Pakistanis to seek "a reasonable settlement" in East Pakistan. The Chinese are believed to want no part of a war that could draw in the Soviet Union, and they want to leave their options open in the event that the popular movement in the East is successful.

In Europe, meanwhile, in the last days of her three-week journey to rally sympathy for India, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi conferred with French President Georges Pompidou and West German Chancellor Willy Brandt. In Paris she was assured that there would be no new arms shipments to Pakistan; in Bonn she picked up a pledge of $15 million more in refugee relief, which brings the West German government's contribution to $23 million.

Back home, Indian officials pointed out that Mrs. Gandhi had not gone to the West "hat in hand but to do some plain speaking." She did indeed win a wide display of public sympathy for India's enormous refugee burden, but it was believed that she had also hoped for more tangible support to stave off the hard-liners in her party who argue that a war with Pakistan would be cheaper than continuing to care for the refugees. As the French daily Le Monde commented: "Unfortunately, it is not certain that she will be able to come back from her trip with decisive cards."

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