Beyond Franco

SPAIN Beyond Franco A cheering crowd of 300,000 Spaniards crushed into Madrid's Plaza de Oriente in front of the imposing 18th century Royal Palace last week and raised a stiff-armed fascist salute to the tiny, frail man of 78 on the palace balcony. The occasion was the 35th anniversary of. Generalissimo Francisco Franco's formation of the Insurgent government in 1936. Addressing the throng with tears in his eyes, the durable dictator promised in a barely audible voice that he would continue to rule "as long as God gives me life and a clear mind."

Brink of Change. The homage to Franco was genuine enough. He has, after all, given Spain one of the longest periods of peace in its history and has presided over its most prosperous decade. As for Spain's autocratic political system, the Caudillo last year assured his subjects in a pseudonymous newspaper article that "our peculiarity is no defect," and few of his countrymen seem to disagree. In telling contrast to the cheering crowd in the Plaza de Oriente, slightly more than half the eligible voters turned out for last week's election to the Cortes, or parliament. Only a fifth of the seats in the largely rubber-stamp assembly are filled by direct ballot, and half the 230 candidates already held government posts or were dependent upon the regime for their jobs.

Nonetheless, everyone in Spain is well aware that the country is on the brink of the biggest change since the civil war. President Franco has been showing signs of his age for some time, and his health is reportedly declining. A year ago, he distressed a visiting Richard Nixon by apparently falling asleep in the middle of a conversation.

Already, Spaniards are beginning to examine the credentials of the men who will succeed Franco. His successor as Head of State has already been chosen: Prince Juan Carlos, 33, who appeared on the palace balcony with the Caudillo at the anniversary celebrations last week, will be crowned King, probably before the end of the year. Vice President Luis Carrero Blanco, 68, will inherit political power for a transitional period. But the man who will likely shape post-Franco Spain will be either Planning Minister Laureano LOpez RodO, 50, or Foreign Minister Gregorio LOpez Bravo, 47.

LOpez ROdo, a tall, balding bachelor, is a conservative and a monarchist. He has been a strong supporter of Prince Juan Carlos and is sure to play an important role when the young Prince is crowned. The introverted LOpez ROdo, an expert on administrative law, is credited as the architect of Spain's economic resurgence, an average growth rate of 7.6% over the past ten years. He is convinced that economic progress must precede political change, a term he cautiously leaves undefined. Change comes "slowly in this country," he told TIME'S William Rademaekers. "But I see change coming. I personally believe it will come in January or February"--a hint that Franco might step down at that time.

Politically Flexible. LOpez Bravo's personality contrasts sharply with LOpez ROdo's. The Foreign Minister is outgoing, articulate, and a family man with nine children. He is also widely regarded as the best-looking Foreign Minister in Europe, as well as the best traveled, having visited 60 countries in the past three years. Tough and openly ambitious, he is more politically flexible than LOpez ROdo: he has been associated with both the half-moribund Falange party and the pragmatic, outward-looking Opus Dei, whose members (including LOpez ROdo) dominate Franco's Cabinet. While he was Minister of

Industry, the government was scandalized by a $190 million textile credit embezzlement, the Matesa case, and would have been deeply embarrassed if the case had ever been fully exposed. But, in observance of the 35th anniversary last week, Franco ordered a broad amnesty releasing 3,000 people from jail and dropping charges against anyone facing a penalty of less than six months, a category that includes embezzlement. Thus the Matesa case is closed.

Signs of Unrest. As Foreign Minister, LOpez Bravo has as one of his priorities "to bring Spain into Western Europe." He also wants to help create a "Mediterranean conscience" among the 17 nations bordering that sea to help bring about a balanced and mutual reduction of forces in the area. He indicated to Rademaekers that Spain is breaking away from overreliance on the U.S. As for Communist countries, "we want relations independent of ideologies."

LOpez Bravo's energetic personality makes it likely he will someday be Spain's Prime Minister. Whoever takes over in the post-Franco era will face a task made more complex by the long years during which all opposition was suppressed. Almost every institution in Spain--from the army to the church and even Opus Dei itself--is divided between conservative and moderately progressive wings, and on how to deal with increasing signs of unrest. In recent weeks there have been clashes between police and unemployed workers in the poor barrios of Madrid, and demonstrations against rising prices (Spain's inflation rate is 7.8%). Campus riots protesting Spain's government have become common.

Thus many Spaniards feel uneasy about the impending change in government. Franco has at least been able to hold all of Spain's diverse factions together. There is no guarantee that his successor will be able to do the same.

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