Japan: Into a Colder World

OF all of America's postwar leaders, Richard Nixon seemed the most friendly and understanding to the Japanese. He had visited Japan both as Vice President and as a private businessman. As President in 1970, he pleased Tokyo immensely with his pronouncement that, under the Nixon Doctrine, continued U.S.-Japanese cooperation would be "the linchpin for peace in the Pacific." No wonder that Nixon's decision in July to visit Peking, followed by his drastic economic measures two weeks ago--which affect Japan more than any other nation (see BUSINESS)--seemed to the Japanese less like linchpin diplomacy than a thoughtlessly thrown shaft. Both moves hit vital Japanese interests, and both were made without consultation between Washington and Tokyo. Decorously silent in public, Japanese officials sputtered volumes in private about "those gorotsuki [hoodlums] in Washington."

A Revelation. The U.S.'s moves had the immediate political effect of creating a schism in Prime Minister Eisaku Sato's long-solid Liberal-Democratic Party. Nixon's overtures to China split the party into warring pro-and anti-Peking factions; his economic measures lent credence to charges by opposition party leaders that the Sato government had tied itself too closely to the U.S. Sato, who had built his remarkable four-term career on that relationship, had expected to step down triumphantly next spring at 70, after the return of Okinawa from U.S. to Japanese rule. Now he may speed up the search for a successor and retire this fall. The most likely contenders: Foreign Minister Takeo Fukuda, 66, who now finds himself handicapped by an overly close identification with Sato's policies, and Minister of International Trade and Industry Kakuei Tanaka, 53, a blunt-spoken self-made man who has strong party support even though he is regarded as somewhat "unpredictable" in Japanese financial circles.

Beyond the initial political shocks, an entirely new sense of unease has spread through Japan. The brusque treatment they received from Washington "has been a revelation for the Japanese," says Katsuyuki Ochi, political editor of Japan's leading financial daily, Nihon Keizai Shimbun. "They now realize that the international stage is a much colder place than they had imagined, and that sentimentalism of any brand has little role to play in the pursuit of national interests."

No Grand Vision. It is when they look beyond their shores that the Japanese find the world most troubling. Laments Shinkichi Eto, respected Tokyo University professor of political science: "Japanese leadership has no grand political vision, no long-range plan of national aims." That seemed not to matter very much through the long years of bipolar, East-West confrontation. "But now that the multipolar world is emerging," Eto adds, "the Japanese suddenly have no idea what they should do."

They are less than popular in Asia, a hangover from World War II, and now they find themselves confined to the role of spectator while their best friend, the U.S., seeks rapprochement with China. Worse, they find themselves cast as downright villains by the Chinese. In his lengthy interview with the New York Times's James Reston four weeks ago, Chinese Premier Chou En-lai made a considerable effort to press upon Reston his firm conviction that Japan's "economic expansion is bound to bring about military expansion." It is entirely possible, of course, that Chou might be courting Asian fear of Japanese militarism and Japanese fear of U.S.-Chinese collusion at the same time, hoping to drive a wedge between Tokyo and Washington.

Wed to Washington. Trying to catch up with events, the Sato government has been seeking to broaden its contacts with the Chinese ever since the U.S. exercise in Ping Pong diplomacy last spring. Peking, however, does not seem ready to respond. Last week, in an unusual move, China sent a high-ranking diplomat, Wang Kuo-chuan, to the funeral of a Japanese political leader in Tokyo. Though Wang is scheduled to spend several days in Japan, he made it clear that he would meet only pro-Chinese opposition leaders--and not Premier Sato.

Despite minority clamoring for a switch in alliances--to Communist China, or to the Soviet Union--a majority of Japanese recognize that their future remains bound up with the U.S. by more than mere economics. Officials in both Washington and Tokyo see no way for Japan to move out from under the American "nuclear umbrella." As an island nation vulnerable to nuclear attack, Japan would have to build an anti-ballistic missile network and a submarine missile fleet to present a credible deterrent--and the price is too high. Japan is not at all anxious to spend more, even on its conventional military capabilities; its leaders are all too well aware that money saved on defense has helped to fuel the country's economic boom. Even when a fiveyear, $16 billion modernization program is complete in 1976, Japan's self-defense forces will still have only 235,000 men (up from 230,000). Meanwhile, defense spending will continue to account for less than 1% of the Japanese G.N.P.--hardly justification for the strident warnings from China (which has nearly 3,000,000 troops, plus The Bomb) about Japanese "rearmament."

High Emotional Content. The U.S., for its part, wants Japan to become the leading economic--not military--force in Asia. That view matches Tokyo's own ambition to become a purely economic superstate, offensive to no one. But the vision could fade if Japan's economy suffers too severe a setback, or if Tokyo finds the world of international diplomacy so cold that it feels compelled to rearm. Avoiding that possibility depends, most of all, on restoring close and easy communications with Washington. Richard Nixon is aware of the high emotional content in the Japanese decision-making process, and that is doubtless why he quickly announced his plans to meet Emperor Hirohito later this month in Anchorage, Alaska, where the Emperor has scheduled a stop on his first world tour. But it will take more than a few symbolic gestures to convince Tokyo that its cold, new world might not be such a dreadful place after all.

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