Is Spiro Agnew Necessary?

Vice President Spiro Agnew scanned a newspaper article critical of him, angrily tossed it aside and noted somewhat bitterly: "If I followed the advice of all my critics, I'd still be in Baltimore." Indeed, there are many who would like to see the Vice President back in Baltimore again--some of them among Richard Nixon's inner circle. Since he reached the high mark of his popularity with Republican pols on the give-'em-hell fund-raising circuit a year ago, Agnew has fallen to such low esteem that there has been open talk for weeks about kicking him off the Republican ticket in 1972.

As chief spokesman for the Administration's harsh line during the 1970 elections, Agnew took the fight to the Democrats--and to errant Republican Charles Goodell of New York--with speeches crafted by White House ghostwriters and a relish reminiscent of an earlier Richard Nixon. His performance ran according to plan, but the results did not; in the postmortem, Agnew received a good deal of the blame for the Republicans' relatively poor showing. For once, Agnew staff members agreed with his critics in the press: the responsibility, they insist, belongs to some of the same White House types who are currently pushing for Agnew's removal. Says one Agnew adviser: "The ones I'm bitterest about are those birds who knew that what the Vice President was doing in 1970 was part of a battle plan. They knew he was under orders. When it flopped, they were the loudest in denouncing him."

Lackluster Tour. When President Nixon relaxed trade restrictions with China following the first gambits of Ping Pong diplomacy, Agnew warned against a sudden thaw in U.S.-Chinese relationships. Nixon, engaged in delicate negotiations with Peking, did a slow burn over his Vice President's outspokenness on the issue. Agnew was abroad when Nixon appeared on television July 15 with his China announcement. He subsequently endorsed the Peking visit, downplaying earlier differences. Relations between Nixon and Agnew, never very close, have become chillier. Says one White House aide: "I see the old man's private calendar and Agnew's never on it."

Agnew's recent foreign tour was lackluster at best, and his remarks condemning black leaders in the U.S. are considered a new burden for an Administration already fighting charges of hostility toward blacks. Lately he has spent more time away from Washington, frequently playing golf with celebrity and sport cronies. He continues his rounds of the Republican banquet circuit, but even in this familiar role his aides sense a growing ennui. His pride is affronted by the small ceremonial duties of the vice presidency that he calls "Hubert Humphrey make-work projects."

Agnew's doldrums plus complaints from liberal Republicans and disenchanted White House aides are hardly enough to make Nixon switch, but the electoral equation next fall could force him to. Should Nixon decide that he must run a more moderate campaign than is consonant with Agnew's image, then he might well replace Agnew with a more suitable running mate. Or, should it seem necessary, he could name another conservative Republican, in hopes of holding voters on the right while still getting rid of Agnew's predictable fractiousness.

If not Spiro--who? Among the principal possibilities:

JOHN CONNALLY. That Nixon's house Democrat is a powerful figure in the Administration became plain during the Treasury Secretary's successful handling of the Lockheed loan guarantee (see BUSINESS); that he will be put on the Republican ticket next summer is far less clear. The idea is that Connally would carry Texas, sew up the South and perhaps provide an edge in such Border states as Tennessee, Kentucky and Maryland. His identification with conservative Southern Democratic philosophy could be enough to fend off another challenge from George Wallace. But Nixon would need help in the big-vote states --California, New York, Ohio and Illinois--to win reelection, and there Connally would be a drawback. Also, Republican professionals oppose dropping a fat party plum into a Democrat's lap. A man who knows both the vice presidency and Lyndon Johnson predicted that Connally might well be Nixon's running mate. Said Hubert Humphrey: "It would be a tough ticket."

GEORGE BUSH. As conservative as Agnew, but without his abrasiveness, Bush is an attractive dark horse. He could be counted on to hold the right-wing vote without antagonizing liberals. His current post as U.N. ambassador has taken him out of the public eye, but that could change overnight. Henry Cabot Lodge moved from the U.N. ambassadorship to the vice-presidential nomination, and the upcoming debate on the admission of Peking could prove a useful vehicle for Bush.

NELSON ROCKEFELLER. There has been so little love lost between Nixon and the New York Governor for so many years that Rockefeller at first glance seems an unlikely choice. But he has supported Nixon on revenue sharing and foreign policy, and in recent years has taken a turn to the right on domestic issues. If the White House pols decide on a New York-California strategy focusing on crime, welfare reform and urban problems, Rockefeller could be the choice. Whether or not Rockefeller would take the No. 2 spot has provided most of the suspense at Republican conventions for more than a decade. While he repeated last week that he does not consider himself "standby equipment," he could change his mind in 1972.

CHARLES PERCY. If Nixon decides to pitch his campaign to the center, Percy would be an attractive running mate with vote-getting strength among blacks, young voters and liberal Republicans. But White House aides insist that the President does not trust Percy. He is a member of the liberal Senate club that opposed the Administration on Supreme Court nominations and on appropriations for the SST and ABM. Despite Percy's appeal, Nixon is not likely to overlook such transgressions.

RONALD REAGAN. His presence at the '68 Republican Convention worried Nixon into adopting the Southern strategy; he still remains the darling of the party's right wing (see following story). A Nixon-Reagan ticket, however, would be too heavily weighted toward California and would not provide a moderating appeal. Nonetheless, if Agnew is dumped, Reagan could keep conservative voters in the Republican column. California observers believe Reagan would accept the nomination.

Even David. Agnew's best chances for renomination remain with his supporters in the Republican right wing. Agnew, insists Barry Goldwater, has a larger personal following in the G.O.P. than Nixon himself; White House aides do not disagree. Whether or not Nixon would take the painful step of admitting that his original choice for Vice President was wrong--which would force him to face recrimination from the right--will probably not be known until next summer, perhaps after the Democrats have nominated his opponent. Says a White House aide: "What he'll do is sit down with a batch of polls that tell him just where he stands. If he thinks it's going to be tight and that Agnew might sink him, that's the end of Agnew. Hell, he'd dump David Eisenhower under those circumstances."

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